Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Working age men still can't find work

Back in July 2005 I did one of my more popular postings, "Yes, the job market really is weak". It had currency mostly due to my nifty graph showing the percentage of employed individuals in an American demographic group almost universally in need of work which doesn't wax and wane with educational or retirement opportunities, nor with social trends toward greater workforce participation rates. That group was men, age 25-64.

Back in July, a little number crunching showed that the US jobs picture was pretty piss poor. In light of the general excitement about the January 2006 jobs numbers together with the upward revisions to those of late 2005, I thought I'd return to the graph and update it for the last two quarters of 2005. The overall story? More of the same.

The four-quarter moving average in 2005:IV shows the US economy has only just recovered to where it was in 2002:IV: 83.1% of what I'll call "working age men" are employed. That's up a microscopic 0.3% from where we were when I penned the first post with this data in July. And we are still far far below the plateaus of the previous two job booms in the late 90s and the late 80s -- forget about the jobs boom of the late 70s. Even worse, 8 quarters since the most recent trough and we're only up to the nadir of 1992!

Let's come clean. This economy continues with a massive disconnect between the largesse of capital and the scraps thrown to labor. And in case you hadn't noticed, it's too late to get in to the whole real estate agent thing now.


At 10:16 AM, Anonymous Eleanor said...

How important is the large prison population in the U.S? What would our employment stats for 24-65 males be, if we factored in all the men removed from the labor force through imprisonment? And are these numbers increasing?

At 10:34 AM, Blogger rtalcott said...

Yes...and it is NOT like this has not been obvious. the standard measure(s) that people seem to think represent the real situation....for example the unemployment nimber that is always quoted.....are total crap. It doesn't speak very highly of many people's ability to know when the numbers are clearly wrong...of course...this is all politics and truth is really not important.


At 11:33 AM, Anonymous cm said...

eleanor: Incarceration plays a part, but I'm fairly sure it is very far from being the largest contributor.

Otherwise, it is probably useful to iterate over and over how both unemployment and labor force numbers come about: The BLS performs a periodic survey of some 50,000 households, and extrapolates from that using population models. The big underlying assumption (or perhaps, contention) here is, in plain terms, that this sample is representative of the whole population.

The labor force is roughly defined as those employed, plus those unemployed and looking for employment. (The employed include those "self employed" who are incorporated, and are technically employees of their own corporation.) "Looking for employment" is defined as "have you made specific efforts to find a job within the 4 weeks prior to the survey, and are you available to start a job within two weeks". Those that don't fall in this definition are not considered unemployed. The unemployment (U-3) rate is the number of those unemployed by this definition divided by the size of the labor force.

At 12:23 PM, Blogger Epimethee said...

eleanor I once read a paper showing that the incarceration in the USA drives down unemployment by 2 to 3 points when compared to european standards. That's because there are so many prisons in the USA, so many cops, and therefore so many criminals (you can't spend your money on prisons cops and severing people from a work experience while confronting them to other criminals and expect a lower crime rate than in a country where all get a decent education, better protection on the job market and where social mixity is higher so that criminals have less opportunity to meet and learn one from another than in ghettos and prisons)
OK rant apart.
Prisons account for 2 to 3 points.
Post 1995 although I think the incarcerated population has remained quite stable.

General you should note that may be the male plateau is lower, but may be the women plateau is higher, may be women are more sensisitive now than in the past to variation of economic activity and may all the jobs went to these fine ladies.

I don't think so, but your graph lets us think that it may be possible.

At 7:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wayel, General, whah don't we jest calls it "structural deeeemand deeeeestruction?"

Yours very truly,
Corporal Glutt

At 1:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

greetings Corp, The General does discard the role of women by focusing on men. You figure we could further close the window by looking at men under 55 to further dramatize a point or do you figure that we should consider why the stats for women are different enough to be excluded -thereby excluding an aspect, a dimension, a feature of the larger picture for the sake of drilling home the more easily understood employment picture?

At 9:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


at thuh rate they is uh reindexin' economic statistics the last six years, whah, ah wouldn't be suuurprised if'n the next reindexin' of the unemployment statistic will just be tuh quit countin' it entirely, kinda like they deeecided to quit countin' M3, doncha know.


At 12:51 PM, Anonymous Tom Womack said...

I'm not quite sure what point you're making - the graph seems to show me just that the 2002 recession was more severe than the one in 1992, and the recovery less strong than the aggressively-stimulated Reagan-era recovery after 1983. I don't see why the expectation isn't that this is the start of a curve which willl bring up to 86% employment again in 2011 or so.

Things aren't great, the entire shape of the planetary labour market has changed, there doesn't seem to have been much stimulus directed towards increasing employment, and the country's at war, why do you expect the recovery from the 2002 recession to be brisk?

At 4:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

e, thanks for pulling M3 back into my field of view. Can I tell you that I hate bashing the BLS because it's like hitting yourself with a baseball bat? (Not that the M3 stat comes under their pervue, but there are all kinds of versions of unemployment that you can compare and ignore the press/headline version)
M3 goes off the map in June, yes? No explanation was given for this trimming of our statistical catalog, so it does look odd/suspicious.

At 7:28 AM, Blogger Epimethee said...

hey General, what's your opinion on Austrians (the economic school of thought), i find those amazingly stupid!
They see the deflation and crisis coming, but they won't blame markets, the globalisation, speculation and deregulation, they only blame central banks and excessive state intervention...
Completely out of contact with what has happened in the last 25 years.
Would you make a post on austrians.
After all, they don't believe in general glut, and well, you are general glut.

At 1:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ah too would like to hear what the general thinks uh them austrians--both the hard and fast ones like luddie von m, and the ones what modify like freddie the h, and all their deeeeescendants.

one thing about thuh austrians, they has tuh be thuh onliest group uh eeeeconomists that was ever throwed outta their own country as loonies and then lit in thuh most powerfulest country in the world and taken in and took serious like. here's why they was took serious like, imho.

economics, whahl it is some science, is also like uh magazine rack, too. Ah mean, there's only so much shelf space and ya gotta yell purty loud tuh git a spot on the rack, if'n yer new, and ya gotta have a magazine with somthin' different every now and then tuh freshin' up thuh rack, ya know.

well, fer quite along time, at least since the bank uh england and the pound come to have a kind of uh hegemony, wayel, british eeeconomists tended to git alot of the shelf space on thuh aymurrrican economic magazine rack, if ya follow me.

if'n ewe were uh aymurrrican eeeeconomist, ewe purty much hadda reeesign yerself tuh statistics and such, cuz thuh onliest high powered, fancy theorizin' what could git heared afore the bank uh england central bankin' money trust hadda come from their own buttoned down oxfurd boyz, fer reasons too obvious fer me tuh mention tuh such an aystute group uh readers as this here one.

ya see, allie "nuthin' up my sleeve, but look at thuh macro not thuh micro" marshall and his oxfurd disciples like John "it don't matter where the stimulus money comes from cuz its all funny money anywayz" Keynes, whah, they was all workin' purty exclusively fer the bank uh england and lordy lordy montagu and thuh gold bullion boyz. and they hadda come up with more and more eeelaborate and biased economic models (what they called theories to make'em seem more credible than callin'em untested, empirically unverifiable hypotheses which is what they mostly wuz) in order to rationalize what the mercantile tradin' companies wuz a doin' in the kinda places ol Joey Conrad liked to write about with such finely wrought, if a might dry, prose. but ah digress.

wayel, ya see, every smart body in aymurrrica and the continent, what knew what were really goin' on (the ol' Brits and lordy lordy montagu were uh tryin' tu hang on to the tiller even though the productive and military and technological advantages had done shifted tuh favor USA and Germany), were gittin' purty danged tired of learnin' all uh these complicated oxfurd exercises in economic masturbatin' flummery, er, theory, when they knowed the real answers were either pretty simply related to cost-benefit choices of firms and individuals operatin' under the financial thumb of uh money trust and some major oligopolies what had rigged the playin' fields of domestic and international trade through asymmetries uh institutin', if'n ya catch my drift.

Soze, ever smart body in economics departments on the continent and in aymurrica done thuh only rational things epistemic workers could do in such uh situation. Whah, they nibbled away at parts of economics that the oxfurd boys was a tryin' tuh ignore, soze not to offend the master and yit tuh be able tuh look theirselves in the mirror and say they done tried tuh advance thuh science at least uh little.

Fer example, in aymurrica, the economists got right queer for statistics and quantifying inventories and raw materials and all thuh things what a big brawny hog butcher and car maker and grain grower fer the world might be partial to think about. and the eastern euros, if'n ah recall correctly, got right fascinated with input/outputtin' models (leontieff weren't his name but ah could be all wrong on the time line there). and wayel, then you come tuh thuh Austrians, who wusz epistemically descended from scholars from the last great empire what the English done eclipsed. and here they wuz, not only eatin' the dust uh england and them oxfurd knuckle draggers, but now they wuz uh havin' to listen to a bunch primitive, back woodser teutons shootin' off their mouths about farben this and krupp that and bayer this and daimler that. and wayel, you know they were kinda half in the bucket with the germans cause they was kinda related tuh them former peasants uh theirs and they really did resent them limeys fer uh figgerin' out how tuh bottle up and dismantle their empire with a bunch stinking, drunkin' sailors yankin' canvases and lanyards on two bit gun boats. ah mean, can ya imagine the indignity uh bein' cut off from the ohl in the middle east just when it become right valuable like?

soze, them hauty austrians was real riled up and they was lookin' fer any way tuh chip away at the new economic order that had replaced'em, and well ewe know what clever stuff a bunch uh too smart ivory tower types can cook up when they is given the green light and tenure tuh git crackin' on some new rationalizations fer the oligarchs. whoooooweeeee, can them boyz conjure er what, general? ah mean, ideas has tuh be the plumb cheapest raw material to work in that were ever created, don't ewe agree? But there ah go digressin' agin.

So, after the Great War and humiliations it heaped on the once proud Austrians, there epistemic boys was set tuh work tuh try tuh explain the mess what had been created and find a way around the danged limey hegemony, too, ah reckon. When no one can eat and there's hyper inflation so bad the philharmonic boys cain't fiddle and half a generation uh boyz done got kilt dead as trench rats with plague, whah, ah reckon thaze uh heap uh new explainin' that needs doin'.

And here come uh bunch uh strappin' young economists with sap a risin' and not fallin in their capillaries. they wuz a pastle of'em. no doubt ewe knows most of'em betterin' me, general, but ah done spend some time in the economic foxhole uh my life readin' a bit uh luddie von mises, cuz he wuz one of the generation uh austrians what got kicked outta austria fer bein' too danged goofy fer rebuildin' austria's economy after wwii.

Wayel, luddie come tuh aymurrica and he done scrambled fer awhile, but he preached the gospel of individual choice based on "praxeology", kind of a dolled up deductive reasoning where in ewe make up uh first principle that deeeescribes some economic choice and then you tries to build up a little model that articulates that first principle (think principle of substitution here) and so allows ewe to make a prediction in uh situation. luddie just said all the macro economical goofiness uh al wallace and the boyz was, wayel, economic goofiness. He said there warn't no macro economic model what could explain what was happenin' with an inductive validity and that economics were stuck with praxeology. it were a might much fer folks what weren't eatin' in austria to swallow. it was like a catholic priest uh saying: wayel, there may be uh god but we cain't find him and so there's no point tuh prayin' to him about his grand plan...all we can do is pray fer what he can do about our little corner of the world. unnerved alottta folks what like their theories tuh be more comprehensive, even if they have to be wrong tuh be more comprehensive.

but in aymurrica, where cranks and lone visionaries can always git a hearing in some tent er other, ludddie found that aymurrrica was a place where they actually listened if'n they didn't enact what you wuz uh espounsin'. and they didn't deport you as long as ewe said commies wuz bad, which he did.

what luddie didn't git about aymurrrica was that aymurrrians likes their visionaries tuh be pragmatic, too. luddie wuz uh little rigid in his thinkin'. he warn't willin' to dress his economic nihilism (i.e., there ain't no big picture we can work with, because of present scientific methodological limitations) up in somethin' virtuous, like, say, his younger friend freddie hayek were only too willin' to do fer anyone who would listen. he was willin' to tailor the austrian school to fit the exact needs of any aymurrrican oligarchs and their oligopolists who had a need fer uh economic theory contrary tuh thuh oxfurd school.

and ewe know who needed just such uh economic theory? wah the rockefeller/morgan/rothschild axis of thuh aymurrican oligarchy needed just such a economic theory. they had done toppled, er at least given a nudge, to lordy lordy montague and bank uh england and knocked'em off the top wrung after wwii and they had done kind of inherited all the poker chips AND control of the global money trust called central bankin'. whah they had ever'thin' a body could want 'cept uh economic theory to rationalize the situation. it wuz kinda embarrassin' tuh haff tuh stand there and say, "wayel, we own the money trust becuz we took it." ya see their problem?

now this next part ah don't know fer uh fact (shoot ah don't know none uh this fer absolute fact cuz ah'm jest uh corporal, see?).

it appears like that they talked tuh luddie and they talked tuh freddie and it didn't take no rocket scientist tuh figger out that freddie wuz more of uh team player, doncha know. so, freddie got the teachin' position at U-Chi and they let luddie take the hindmost. it got so bad that eventually his papers and a school named in his honor hadda be created at auburn of all places. alabamans is lovely folks and ah likes alabama stock car racin' a heap, but they do have a fondness fer lost causes, if'n ya know what ah mean. but ah digress yit agin.

so what happened was this austrian praxeology, which more or less just said, "shoot, we don't know what's goin' on except that ewe can predict a few basic economic choices a feller will make with deductive logic and beterin' random chance of being right," whah in no time at all it were dressed up to explain that the invisible hand of markets done caused aymurrrica to become the global hegemonist that it had become. not guns. not war. not mom. not apple pie. not hard work. not innovation. not even luck. it were uh invisible hand of markets that done it. and any derned fool what learned how to juggle a few firm based (this was one of the lyrical leaps that luddie probably weren't able to make, but which freddie and milton and the boys wuz probably only too willin' to do) deductive principles and dress it up in somethin' called firm based micro economics and monetary theory and, POOOOF!, you've got yerself uh economic explanation that uh oligarch and his epistemic worker kin talk about without bein' laughed out of uh cocktail party, uh board meetin', er a washington policy meetin'. and its right handy fer rationalizin' shiftin' power from states and individuals into the hands uh multinational corporations, central bankin' money trusts, and resource cartels, doncha know.

so, yes, ah would be right fascinated tuh learn what the general has tuh say about the austrian school. cuz ah am, afterall,

very loyally and truly yours,
Corporal Eustice R. Glutt
Aymurrican Patriot and Economic Grunt

At 8:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

General Glut, the email address you post on the front page of your site isn't working -- I'm getting bouncebacks. Perhaps you should check the address, update the link or remove it.

At 12:49 AM, Blogger vader_jg said...

I salute you all, Corporal.

There is that nagging bunch of folks that keep writing papers about economics and markets not being rational.

Of course if those folks ever got to power, then economics could be regulated just like sex and drugs.

It's not like economic folks are not consistant at predicting things, its just that they are consistantly wrong.

There are days I think a monkey with a fair coin would do less damage or better yet, the cable folks can save a lot of money and increase viewership if not the level of competance by having scantly clad ladies toss darts for the upcoming ecomomic predictions. A tie in with Fredricks of Hollywood would be a natural.

At 12:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

honorable vader_jg,

we oughtn't be too hard on alot uh thuh regular ol' workin' eeeconomists. it is very hard to predict a rigged game, when you ain't made privvy to the rig. but there are sum uh them high esteemed, secret society belongin' economists what ought not be doin' sum uh thuh things they been uh doin' imho.

ol' one chevron glutt

At 2:33 PM, Blogger vader_jg said...

My non commissioned friend, it reminds me of a story I heard. There was this cowboy who went to town and was paying at a gambling wheel. A bystander told him that the game was crooked. The cowboy kept on gambling and losing. The bystander ask why the heck he kept on, and the cowboy said that 'Well, it's the only game in town'.

Now the game may be rigged or maybe the folks that thinks they knows the rules, don't. Or for that matter both may be correct. In any case, the result is the same.

My personal feeling is that the rules changed, the elites may be rigging or maybe they think they are rigging it.
I lean toward the rules changed. The balance of power has shifted to Asia and a new form of capitalism, but a lot of folks have not got the memo.

I wonder if the General has see this one: JOBS UPDATE: ARE YOU READY FOR THIS?

At 10:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear vader_jg,

First, ah really likes a good yarn and ya tol' a good one fer sure. But if'n ya don't mind, ah think ah'll take uh turn and ayppropriate yer cowboy tale and amend it uh might tuh makes mah own point. Wayel, here goes...

In mah amended version, after thuh cowboy said, "Wayel, its thuh onlyiest game in town," he done lost ever cent he had earned on the Pecos Trail herdin' them doggies, and when he asked fer credit, the house spotted him a big roll and then he lost all uh that too. Then some uh their bouncers dragged the cowpoke down uh dark hallway past a smoke filled room and on down to a store room where they done kicked the snot outta him fer awhile, callin' it uh rendition, er sum such nonsense. Then they told him he were in their debt. Then they took all uh his things and they said he could either agree to pay them a big cut uh what money he owed'em outta what he would earn on the Pecos Trail the next time, er they might just break his legs soze he couldn't cowpoke no more, er maybe even depattern him down south uh thuh border, whut ever the heck that meant.

Bein' a right rational and decent cowpoke with a gamblin' jonez, he done agreed tuh try tuh work off his debt. But when he went to leave they said to hand over his six gun and his bedroll and canteen and lasso; that they was collateral until he did pay up. Wayel, he said, that weren't right. How, he said, could he earn the money tuh pay'em off without the tools uh his trade? Soze they said, okay, cowpoke, ewe keep ever thin' but thuh six shooter. We'll lease it all to yah but the six gun what ewe don't need no how, and ewe go get uh unsecured, high interest workin' capital loan from thuh bank across thuh street to tide ewe over till yer next paycheck. And they kicked his be-chapped rear out the back door and said don't come back off'n the trail till ya gots the money tuh pays us AND thuh bank.

Wayel, this cowpoke, he were right angered and he felt plumb necked without his shootin' iron, but wayel, he didn't know what tuh do about it, but go back out on thuh trail and try tuh pay these thugs off.

But as he were a feelin' his broke nose and uh walkin' down thuh alley to the dirt main street (Marty Robbins "Streets uh Laredo" were uh waftin' in thuh air), he done passed the lighted window of thuh smoke filled room where all thuh fellers with the fancy suits and all their ladies uh thuh night were uh sittin' round uh table countin' up the day's earnin's from the rigged games and the shake downs uh the losers like our cowboy. Wayel, our cowboy couldn't help hisself from sneakin' uh peak fer uhwhile tuh see what was uh goin' on in this room ful uh thuh con artists what had took his money and things and then what had then had his broke nose and de-snotted.

What he heared was this: the folks runnin' the crooked game owned the cattle company he were uh gonnna go work his tail off fer tuh pay off his debts fer them. And they owned the derned bank in town where he was tuh git his loan. And then he overheared one of 'em sez: Tell thuh boyz over at the bank tuh print us up some more greenbacks. We gots another train load uh immigrant suckers comin' in on thuh train tomorrow AM and we is goin' tuh need cash fer loans and such tuh gett'em hooked into thuh system. Another feller said, wayel, boss, how much does ya wants'em tuh print. Oh, ah don't know, the boss man said (his name were Oliver Gark, but his friends they called him Ollie), ah reckon a ten thousand fer loans tuh all uh thuh pilgrims, plus uh hundred thousand a piece fer each uh us soze we can expand our businesses enough to put'em to work and keep us 100 times as rich as the pilgrims. They all winked and grinned at each other. Wayel, the second feller sezs okay, and he leaves and the cowpoke follers him over tuh thuh bank and again the cowpoke goes down uh side alley tuh see if'n he can get a peak. Shor enuff, in one window, he seez the printin' press just uh spittin' out greenbacks like they wuz lint comin' off uh cotton gin.

And do you know what that cowboy sed to hisself? Whah, he sed purty much what Argentina and Brazil and uh increasin' amount uh countries sez to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He sed: Ah ain'ta payin' em back one thin dime! And ah'm uh tellin' mah fellow cowpokes tuh do thuh same and we all is'uh gonna borrow thuh money from this here bank fer all uh what we needs and we ain't uh gonna pay'em back fer it never neither. And if'n they come callin', wayel, we're gonna tell'em tuh print more cuz we is either exposin' em er uh hittin' the trail and uh startin our own town and bank. And thuh crooks, though they did build a bunch uh new jails and concentration corrals tuh iiiinnncarcerate sum uh thuh unfortunates, whah they lets most uh the unfortunates go cuz they would be fools tuh give up there printin' press con fer a row with a bunch uh cowpokes that would wind up callin' attention to their funny money bank. Whah that cowpoke concluded wuz that they'd rather write off thuh paper losses and git on with thuh bidness uh fleecin' other folks. And some day, the cowpoke said, we is uh gonna start our own danged town, and bank, and we is gonna do things right and honest and when we gits our stake, we is gonna play thuh game right and run these crooks outta town on a rail. And so they did. And then the cowpoke went back out on his horse and he rode in tuh thuh sunset jest like they did once upon uh time in the west.

ain't stories great?! they kin tell all kinda things all kinda wayz.

wayel, vader_jg, ah reckon ewe can see mah point here. Thuh eeeeconomy probably did not tilt tuh Cathay (which ah agreez it has did) jest cuz the I Ching sticks cum up that way one day. The boyz in thuh back room done financed Cathay intentional like. And we know who they are this time, cuz their speechifyin' is bein' reported in the mainstream media. They is in Beijing uh tellin' them billions uh Chinese folks how much their eeeconomy can grow next year. Now whah would they be over their tellin' billions uh Chinese folks how much their eeeeconomy could grow, if'n they didn't have the whammy on the levers uh them folks eeeconomy, too?

See, ah figgers thuh money trusters knowed what they wuz uh doin'. They knowed where this wuz a headin'. They knowed it wuz uh gonna put these ol' United States that ah luvs so well behind the fiscal and financial eight ball. In turn, it don't take no Oxfurd er Princeton book larnin' tuh know that the boyz in the back room done wanted tuh take the ol' USA down uh notch er three in thuh board game called the new world central bankin' dominated order. Ah mean, it ain't like the CFR fellers, the Trilateralists, and the Bilders ain't uh been talkin' 'bout movin' in this here die-rection fer quite some time. And them boyz don't jest sit around their round tables uh talkin' tuh hear theyselves, do ya thinks? Ah mean "deeeemand destruction" and uh "eclipse of the nation state by central banking dominated corporate world order" ain't jest made up fer thuh fun uh sayin' them kinda words, is they? Ah mean, as long as ewe can print all uh the danged money ewe want, them money truster fellers would be derned fools tuh up and finance and institute uh new world order which give'em LESS power and control, wouldn't they? we ain't talkin' rocket science er cornspiracies here. We're jest talkin' about what a few ordinary big inheritance type fellers and their epistemic whores would most likely be predisposed tuh doin' if'n they had a money printer in thuh back room and the hired guns and the raw materials control tuh makin' pricin' in the currencies they like tuh print stick. Ya follow me here?

Aw, shoot, maybe you is right. Maybe it all is uh jest uh happenin' random like. Ah'm jest uh yard bird latrine technician, soze whut duz ah knows anyway?

But whooooooooooweeeeeeeee, what if ah is right and what if we all jest duz go on uh thinkin' its all jest uh happenin' random like? Wouldn't old posterity think we wuz jest the biggest bunch uh dumb country bumpkins what ever tumbled off'n thuh turnip wagon?

With the highest fine regards,
Corporal Eustice R. Glutt
Economics Grunt Third Class

At 12:51 AM, Blogger Vader said...

Well boss Grunt, you all are about as accurate as those high priced folks. So while you are cleaning out the bird latrine, you can snicker that those high priced folks are ripping off their clients who could get the same advice from you say for lunch or help carrying the bird poop to the composter.

I do appreciate you taking the time to flesh out my humble offerings.

Here is another good yarn, notable not only for being along the same lines, somewhat, but having a economic guy named Steven King as a contribitor.
Sounds like a setting for a new horror story.

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At 7:09 PM, Blogger Luther said...

Bush Says He Will Veto Any Bill to Stop UAE Port Deal


At 9:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear vader_jg, er, vader, er, wayel, ah'm not too sure who is uh respondin' tuh me here. Is you uh vader junior grade, er just a vader? did they strip yer rank on ya? if'n they did, ewe let me know and ah'll give'em a good sock in the jaw. anyways...

ah read yer link tuh ol'mayor mikes wsj clone and ah thought real hard on what it had tuh say, cuz ah reckoned you wouldn't not tell me tuh read it and eeeequate me tuh bein' opposite wrong tuh epistemic whores, if'n ewe weren't plum certain uh yerself.

now afore ah start in, ah gotta say that ah read it on uh lap top what ah took with me down into the latrine whilst ah did mah cleaning duties. that ol' latrine goo got all over mah lap top and soze it might uh malfunctioned er somethin', but regardless, here's what ah gathered from that fine piece uh commentin' done by Mistur Peeeeeesek.

What ah got were this: if thuh central bank uh cathay would just take all their stinkin' dollar reserves and flood them out into deeeeerivatives like they wuz supposed tuh do...and like our plunge protection team has been uh doin' with fresh printed bills fer quite some time now cuz they wouldn't, whah then there'd be so much danged investment goin' on in Aymurrrica and the EEEEEEEE-EWE and, well, Cathay, too, plus every other danged place in the world that there wouldn't be no stinkin' dollar bubble no how. what's the deal, vader_jg, er vader, er whut ever yer handle is today? ah mean ever stinkin' body knows that what ya duz when ya gots too much money sitting around collectin in a glutt. ya fire it back out into circulation as infrastructure investment. shoot, no, ya don't start sellin' stinking dollars and crashin' thuh value of'em. and just the same ya don't stuff'em in a mattress and sit on'em, neither. ya just create a bunch uh low interest loans and make work programs. and ewe can also dump the money onto investors plunge protection style and ya give the ol' economy uh great big royal keynsian goose, ya folla me? ah mean lookie here, vader_jg, er vader, er whatever, if'n thuh central bank uh cathay were tuh start valvin' them dollars plunge protection style, wah, Aymurrica and Europa could be at full employment in uh new york minute. and if'n old Jay-pan did the same thing, whah, can you imagine the economic golden age this ol' world would be propelled into? Whah, ever stinkin' body would have all the capital they needed to rebuild ever piece uh infrastructure in the world, and build uh whole buncha new infrastructure, maybe even on other planets, and on toppa all that whah there'd be enuff capital tuh start ever new kinda danged bidness with ever danged new kinda technology anyone ever fancied. And since the Federal Reeeeeserve can just run their stinking printin' presses when ever they want, whah they could make up fer any short falls in buyin' power fer all uh this new production in about three weeks uh spinning out greenbacks 24/7.

so, the question is: whah are Cathay and Jay-pan uh hordin' them dollars like uh couple uh toddlers hoardin' their feces? whah don't they jest let'em go and spread deeeeevelopment all around thuh world? and if'n they fear losin' some money and have'n tuh explain tuh some commie bosses, wayel, whah don't they jest do what our central bankers do? print more money to make up fer whatever they lost.

ah don't know, do ewe?

uh big heap uh reeeespectfully you'rn,

At 2:37 PM, Blogger Vader said...

I am sorry that I am having an identify crisis. I think I am having a cookie problem.

Thanks for your response and I will need to read it more clearly, but just in case you are concerned about any lack of respect for those elites or yours that I may exhibit, that is not intended. My gut feeling is that capitalism just does not work anymore. Its run of 300 years or so has ended, but the notices has not reached much of anyone. This is in regards to the big fellows, after all the stockholders don't control much of the big companies anymore, a specialized labor class does. And if capital does not control the means of production, then it aint capitalism.

Capital just does not buy what it used to buy. Maybe both theories could be confabulated into come grand theory of meltdown, but I claim to be furtherest out on the limb anyways.

I can remember John Burch recruiting drives in my youth. I wonder what old John would think of the US borrowing its daily bread from Red China and selling its birthright to that same place.

All is vanity the good book says and I guess all it means is that God has a sense of humor.

At 1:25 AM, Anonymous Craig said...

Very interesting graph.

But I have two questions:

What are the profiles of the men in this group who are not employed and have the profiles changed over time? In other words, what are the men doing who are not working and has it changed over time?

Can the graph be extended back further in time? If I remember right, the second half of the seventies were economically sluggish so it might be useful to go back to say the mid-sixties.

At 11:33 PM, Blogger Luther said...

This is great news:
Mardi Gras Lives On in New Orleans

At 2:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

General... I've tried emailing you at and Neither go through.

Please contact me so that I can talk with you about Elliott Wave International.

Andrew Jordan
770-536-0309 x3073
800-336-1618 x3073

At 8:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is pretty good news
Supreme Court Rules Against Schools in Military Recruiting Case

At 2:07 PM, Anonymous old man waiting for green thumb training said...

Hi guy and gals,
I am a 54 year old man and I am more philsophically oriented than statistically oriented. I worked most of my life in radio as a music disc jockey. I have found that the value system has disentegrated. That is, what was once valued in an employee (loyalty, attendance, slow persistant attention to work) is now not worth much now. Because so many people seek work, those with the old fashioned values are pushed out of the job opportunity market in favor of those with the "get it now", "get it fast", "don't waste time patting good people on the back theory". Employers now seem to think of a person as a statistic. One employee is just as good as another (young or old) just as long as they can be hired cheap. To be fair, it's not all the employers fault, given that they have to find a way to compete with companies who do the job cheaper from an out of the USA location. However, when you take a person with much life experience out of the work force, you also take humanity out of the work force. Human feeling is necessary. If it is not there, the work may get done, but, the quality will eventually be found to be poor. That is the reason we have to replace/repair a lot of appliances and electronics so soon. Poor workmanship in the name of production. I have gone on long enough. I have more time, but I have wasted my breath preaching on this for so many years, as I have watched these things change, that I am running out of steam. Please send yellow roses for my grave.

At 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


Twister Death Toll Rises to 10 in Midwest

At 11:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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At 5:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush Pledges to Stick With It in Iraq

At 7:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mom Accused of Kidnapping Kids, Posing as Dad

At 3:36 AM, Blogger Scott said...

This exact issue is addressed at this post:

Perhaps the General would care to comment on it.

At 4:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Fed makes new dollars. Uses new dollars to buy Gov Debt. Yields go down because bond prices go up (supply and demand law). Cascading effect across asset classes causes asset prices to increase as investors search for more yield. Cost of capital goes down for companies and entreprenuers. Riskier projects are now viable with lower CC, hence, the boom. Eventually, bad investments will turn sour (dot com selling kitty litter over internet), hence, the bust. Just follow through each asset class, from equities and now to fixed income. Real estate boom (lower IR), new fixed income products to enhance yield...

All of this because investmented capital is higher than personal savings (ie funny money).

In case anyone is wondering, that is what people think is going on.

At 5:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I meant *some* people.

At 4:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This stuff does not help people find jobs

Immigration rally coverage from across the country

At 3:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder how this will impact the economy
Fla. Fires Force 1,000 to Evacuate Homes

At 8:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush cannot do that cause he is mtoo busy doing this

Bush Marks Inauguration of Iraq's New Cabinet

At 9:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

pretty crazy...

Nearly 50 Killed in Iraq Violence

At 10:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The labor force is defined as those employed, plus those unemployed and looking for employment.

At 7:02 AM, Blogger Delonix Radar said...

I'm wondering what will happen when all the baby boomers retire


At 6:36 AM, Blogger Mark said...

This comment has been removed by the author.


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