Monday, December 05, 2005

Don't look at the RMB, sell us airplanes instead!

Do you remember these words spoken in November 2004 by People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Li Ruogu?
The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the problems of unemployment in the US because the cost of labour in China is only three per cent that of US labour. They should give up textiles, shoe-making and even agriculture probably. . . . They should concentrate on sectors like aerospace and then sell those things to us and we would spend billions on this. We could easily balance the trade.”
Well, it looks like one shouldn't take such talk too seriously. At least the part about buying from the United States. Because China has no intention of "balancing" trade with the US.
China ordered 150 Airbus single-aisle A320 airliners Monday, more than twice as many plane orders than the company's U.S.-based rival Boeing Co. snagged from China last month.

The European aircraft manufacturer said the deal was worth nearly $10 billion and was ''the largest single order that Airbus has ever received since it entered the Chinese market two decades ago.'' . . .

The order upstages China's purchase last month of 70 Boeing jets during a visit to Beijing by President Bush. At list prices that deal was worth about $4 billion, although buyers typically get discounts on big orders.

Until now, Chicago-based Boeing has won about 60 percent of new plane orders from China, with Airbus taking about one-third.
So what again is the US going to sell to the world so as to begin tackling its $700bn annual trade deficit?


At 12:12 PM, Blogger Epimethee said...

It should sell its army ... :-)


At 12:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Li Ruogu probably had a similar conversation with some EU trade reps as well! So here China is spreading it's aerospace orders around with the "sick men" of manufacturing.

At 3:11 PM, Blogger fatbear said...

So what again is the US going to sell to the world so as to begin tackling its $700bn annual trade deficit?

Dreams. (i.e., Hollywood, Nashville, Broadway, et alia)

There isn't much else left....

At 3:13 PM, Blogger fatbear said...

notre général -

And now that we're back to blogging on a semi-regular basis, what about the RSS feed? Some of us actually stopped coming by, and a feed would alert all to return to the fold. (id est, after the next hiatus)

At 5:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

fatbear and had the same thought!!

Sadly, that may not be so easy. There is Bollywood and the incredible DownUnder and the purportedly-incredible-but-goes-right-over-my-uncultured-head Japanese cinema...

And even more interesting is that those little brown people in the Middle East can apparently point cameras at things without Paul Wolfowitz's help. Some movie called, unfortunately, "Osama-something" about Afghanistan is supposed to be a must-see.

Why should people watch our crap? For the special effects?

Especially as the world is going to, just because of the changes in the air, become very interested in places like the ME and Far East. Everybody's watched American movies since WWII because we were the rising sun of the world, I claim. Success sparks interest. Who will be the next success?

-- a different chris

At 2:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the problems of unemployment in the US...because W says (from the Deere/Hitachi plant) we have historic lows in no problem to solve, lucky us.
The Airbus deal is ominous.
What will we sell them?
Rice and beans? Last time I looked we were a net importer of food.
calmo gives up.

At 6:26 AM, Anonymous Tom Marney said...

More mortgage-backed securities, silly...

At 1:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm guessing besides scrap steel, scrap wood and drywall we get from tearing down the suburbs.

At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Free-lance mercenary services perhaps?
China could hire us to invade Taiwan ;)
(or forgive some of our debt in exchange)

At 3:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

General, who-weeeeee, you make it seem pretty clear that them Chinese is uh tryin' tuh put it to us, ain't they?

Now, here's the question, though, General: who is in control of them ol' Chinese?

Do ya reckon its a bunch of ol'former Commies that know jack diddlely about modern eeeeconomies and central bankin' and such?

Or do ya think thaze someone with some western book learnin' uh givin' them their marchin' orders?

Ah noticed that an old Morgan fellah was over in Beijing uh few days back tellin' them folks how much they could grow next year...6.7 percent ah blieve.

Somehow, ah find it hard tuh believe that this bunch uh commie yahoos is goin' to listen to that kind of talk unless that their Morgan fellah was speakin' big medicine for whoever holds the whammie on them folks.

and somehow, ah find it hard to believe that them commie yahooos was able to hornswoggle all our smarty pants investment bankers into creatin' a no win situation for the good old USA, unlessin' some of them investment bankers and leader types didn't kinda want this kind of eeeeventuality to occur.

Now, ah know, 20/20 hindsight can be deceptive. And ah know that attributing control of complex historical eeevents to a few fellers in controls of central banks can be plum wrong at times, but don't this situation seem just a might peculiar, to ya, General?

Why the devil did we keep'a loanin' them the money to build their economy and string of pearls submarine bases into what will probably become the most powerful economy the world has ever seen, if'n some of our powerful thinkin' types didn't think it was all for the best anyhows?

Ah mean the Dutch bankers did this to their folks when they built up the English economy and let the Dutch fall behind.

And the English bankers did it to their folks when they built up the American economy and let their economy fall behind.

Don't it seem at least a slim possibility that these folks what own the Fedeeeral Reeeeserve might have just decided to change horses er somethin'? Maybe quite a few years back, too.

Ah recall uh readin' ol Brooks Adams writin' back around the 1890s that Europe would be our problem for the 20th Century and China for the 21st Century. Now that was one bright brahmin, warn't he, General? Maybe, we're uh watchin' the solution take place, eh General?

Of course, the above is all just me chewin' on some blue stem and makin' out some opinions and such. Ah don't know no facts tuh speak of. Ah just wondered, that's all.

Whew! What're we gonna do, General?

Concernedly yours,
Corporal Glutt

At 7:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well Corporal, it's hard to read the exact layerering of irony under all that wheezing dialect, but I'd say American bankers are no more loyal to the US as such than were their predecessors in London or Amsterdam.

More to the point, bankers aren't so much "masters of the universe" as they are "agent/brokers to the masters of the universe". They just want their vig on whatever deal happens to be going down.

And where did Brooks Adams write his prescient remarks about Europe and China?

At 10:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"layerering" is good, but I'd reccommend an eye patch, readin The Corporal. I don't know that the thread could handle 2 'spandin da langwhich' types.
This shows some recovery:
Ah noticed that an old Morgan fellah was over(and I would like to take some credit but I dare not)
referring to Stephen Roach, Stephen Jen or Andy Xie but none to them seriously old.
Corporal, I think the way to view the investment bankers (not Roach) is like leeches rather than clever partners. What's different this time is that China doesn't need the financiers as conduits.(Against this is some news that investment banks are hiring for China offices, so maybe you are right.)[It could happen.] HK has provided all that they needed to get off the ground and it appears (gdp growth of 17%) that they are up and running.
Now that was one bright brahmin, that's a bull, right?
U B GoodNow calmo

At 4:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Way'l, ahm a wee bit embarrassed tuh say that ah cain't rightly recomember where ol'Brooksie laid that down. Mebbe ah'm goin' dipsy doodle all day crazy. But Ah read "The Law of Civilization and Decay," cover tuh cover once, soze it mahta been in thar. But somethin' tells me it was in one of his essays or in some of his letter jawin' with his more sensitive and reeefined brother Henry. Now ah read Henry's education: an autobiography and Henry's letters, too, so it could orta have been a kind of a toss off line in a letter in there, too. But ah really think it was somethin' more thoughtful, somethin' with him chewin' on things serious like, so that takes me back tuh "The Law of Civilization and Deeeecay." Ah hope you'll please fergive me. Ah thought ah was the only one what gived a hoot about ol' Brooksie. It was some number uh years back ago. Ah could be wrong, but ah really think he did lay that down ink tuh paper one time in a leeeegitimate form. Brooksie were in my opinion somethin' of an AYmerican visionary, burdened by the eclipse of the family's power and worried by the vulgur bankers and standard trusters what was takin' over the reigns by then. He saw it all pretty danged clear about the reeepublic goin' into eeeclipse afore it become common knowledge among the broader intielectual elite over the next century. Them boys at American International Corporation down at ol' 120 Broadway off Wall pulled some derned fancy fandangos tuh corporatize this here country of ours. Ol'Brooksie seemed tuh see that game uh comin' waaaaay back when John D. and the boys was startin tuh grab them Phillipines and the Caynal, don't'cha know. Ya can put ol' Brooksie up there with Alf Mahan in mah humble opinion, when it comes tuh forecastin'. Hmmmm, ah'll keep'a thinkin' on it tuh see if'n ah kin recalls better. Ya know, ol Brooksie was uh gubment bureaucrat for uh good spell and it mahghta been in an essay or report he writ in that caypacity, too. Ah had some occassion to read some uh that stuff too along time back, when ah had even less sense than ah do now and you could put about all mah brains now into one of them carbon nano tubes the scientists be uh playin' with these days. hmmm, ahm just a danged corporal, now, fellas. ah'm doin' mah best just tuh recomember what ah does without you wantin' gol danged footnotes. still'n all, if'n ah cain't fahnd it, i reckon it don't pull much weight as a recollection, now does it? so, ah'll keep'a tryin' to recomember where's exactly i read it. please accept mah apologies till ah does recall accurate like. ah don't want tuh come of lahk some kinda danged liar. Derned, now ah ain't'a gonna sleep worth one of JFK's silver backed certificates.

Apparently dementedly yours,
Corporal Glutt

At 4:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alright, alright I was hasty about that recovery. Anyone can have a relapse.
Weeze prayin ferya Corpral,

At 12:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>Do ya reckon its a bunch of ol'former Commies that know jack diddlely about modern eeeeconomies and central bankin' and such?

Uh, I stand behind no one in my suspicion of "big-time financiers"!!

But your White People bias is really showing. One thing I've learned from the good GG and others is that Marx and Marxists actually understand the workings of a capitalist economy very, very well. Far better than the neo-liberal fantasists were currently cursed with.

The thing is most economists want to be mechanics, not lion tamers. You see, a lion tamer gains a through understanding of how a lion thinks, and uses this knowledge to get the lion to do some simple tricks and not eat any of the spectators.

And before he steps in the ring you better believe he has planned for the absolute worst and knows exactly what he is going to do when it looks about to happen.

An economist wants to build a machine that always does what its built to, no intervention required. Powerful but docile, like a supercomputer crunching equations.

So we get the stupid neo-liberals and their "Free Trade" nonsense, for example. Just stand back and watch it work!! Thank god lion tamers don't think that way.

So the Marxists understood capitalism pretty well, but instead of trying to tame it they felt compelled to replace it with a utopian Economic Machine.

The Chinese may have finally broken that mold. The government is the undisputed last authority, but it lets the lion be a lion and yet tamed.

To think a country of 1.2 billion people, a country that pretty much invented every technology there was up to the European Renissance, can't come up with a group of people that can understand Western Economics throughly is a little ridiculous, I think.

It isn't rocket science. And apparently the Chinese are getting that well in hand, too.

-- a different chris

At 3:29 PM, Anonymous knzn said...

China will buy planes wherever they can get the best planes for the lowest price. Today, the dollar is strong against the euro because of US fiscal and monetary policies and the profligate behavior of our consumers, so the US is not very competitive. You can blame the Chinese for their own exchange rate, but don’t blame them for the dollar/euro rate.

At 4:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Uh, differnt chris,

Ere you old enough to recollect a mooovie cault "Sayonara" with that ol' Omaha bohunk Marlon Brando? He felled hard in love with a Jaypanese lady and wanted to get hitched with her somethin' fierce. She got plum worried that their kids would be mixed blood, as Jaypanese and Aymerican cultural retards kin be purty cruel 'bout such things. Wayle, he tried to reassure her by sayin' this: Hana-ogi(er somethin' like that), they'll be half Japanese and half American. Half white and half yellow. Half yours and half mine. Least he said somethin' pretty close tuh that. Wayle, ah kinda views mahself that way. Ah'm half this and half that. Half mah daddie and half mah mommie. Half upper european and half lower european. Half wit and half nitwit. Half good and half bad. Half caypitalist and half socialist. Half progressive and half conservative. Half Corporal and half Colonel (wayle, maybe a hundredth Colonel). Half jock and half book worm. Half old and half ancient. Half Jungian and half Freudian. Half devout and half agnostic. Half up and half down. Catch mah meanin'?

Ah just don't see mah seff as the round eyed, white devil with white man bias that ewes presents me as bein'. Mebbe ah is a hopeless piece uh racist trailer trash with a bias for mighty whitey, but ah kinda doubts it. Yep, ah thinks your sellin' me short there.

What ah means by sayin' them ol' commie yahoos may not be uh runnin' China is this: heck fahr, if the gol darned oleeegarchs can buy politicians in western reeeepublics for a bent penny on a fiat dollar, it shor seems lahk they could buy them commie yahoos, too. Now that ain't prejudicin' is it? Ah mean, ah'm just saying no matter what a derned politician's derned skin er eyes look like, the historic record makes a purty good case that most pols all over the big wide world is beholdin' to some money bags. Hitler had his Farbens and Krupps and such, don't yah know. Ain't that kind of uh real politik factoido, er, somethin'?

Ah, mean, with all the due respectin' ya needs, you seems tuh be the one with a tiny bit uh bias, 'bout them commie yahoos. You seems tuh be sayin' that their pols got some kinda geeenetic resistance er somethin' tuh bein' bought 'n paid fer by oleegarchs, er their aygents. Ah'm the one what's sayin' a pol's a pol no matter what kahnda hide he got over his bones, and no matter what kinda horse dung-ism he's uh pedallin' tuh his citeeezens.

See, ah read awhahl back that some danged oleeegarchs--the ones what invested in American International Corporation--done some serious investin' in that there Bolshevik reeeevolution. Ah believe it were some kinda marginalized scholar name uh Antony C. Sutton, er, somethin' what writ it. But once upon a time, this egg head warn't so fringe. Once upon a time he were at the Hoover Insteeetute. Now this egg head had the foolishness to write hisself a paper whilst he was on the gravy train at the Hooooover Insteeetute what said mores or less that a not insignificant number uh western oleeegarchs done financed the danged evil empahr of that there USSR on and off fer quite a long danged time. Whah, he said ol' Nicky Lenin and Lee Trotsky was quite powerful for uh doin' confeeeedential biz with these caypitalists; that them danged commies wuz uh profittin' right along with them caypitalist oleeegarchs and that it warn't full clear who was zoomin' who in the reeeelationship. And when ah read that what this egg head done writ had never got substantially impeached nor factually reeeefuted, whah ah hadda give it some kinda credeeeebility, now didn't ah? yeah, yeah, ah knows he kinda went off into them secret society conspiracies in his olt age, when he probly needed tuh feather his nest cuz the ol' status quo give him a big, hard academic stiff arm off the ol' grant gravy train for the last half his adult life, but shoot fahr, facts is facts ain't they? And that ol'Antony, wah he done dug up heaps and heaps of 'em, paranoid or sane. Ah mean the oleeegarchs of American International Corporation was apparently uh practically fosterin' these commie yahoos to create a danged flanking problem fer the european powers fer a good part of the danged 20th century. now whah i don't rightly know. maybe they wuz just exploitin' a trend, but it shor seemed like they was heppin' it along for a multeeetude of sins, er, reasons.

Soo "a differnt chris," ah just kinda sashayed from what had appeared been done to commie yahoos back in 19 and 19 and thence forwards a good while, to what might be bein' done to commie yahoos in China in 20 and 05. And if'n ah recall, them ol' ruskie commie yahoos was uh purty danged occidental lot and them current danged chinese commie yahoos be purty danged oriental. So, in the fahnal aynalysis, ah'm bein plum unprejudiced to both orientals and occidentals. in fact, about the only danged prejudice you can accuse me of in mah thinkin' on this partains tuh pols. ah kinda sees'em all purty much alike...all kinda fast and loose with the monetary compromisin' don't ya know? But shoot fahr, if'n ya cain't be prejudiced aginst pols, what's the point'a chewin' fat 'bout any uh this. ah mean whether ya calls 'em politeeecal entreeeepreneurs, like some aceeedemics like tuh, er ya calls 'em pork barrel prostitutes, like ah likes tuh, wayle, they does tend tuh reek uh doin' other folks biddin' fer money, now don't they?

Agin with all due respectin',
Corporal Glutt

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