Friday, September 09, 2005

Worried about inflation -- or profits?

Are the big fat paychecks of American workers threatening a new round of destruction inflation? Economists seem to be sounding the alarm bell. On Wednesday the BLS released its revised second quarter productivity and costs data which showed, according to Reuters,
lower labor productivity and rising wage costs renewed concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates. . . . "Today's report on productivity may signal an uptick in inflation," said Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Oak Associates Ltd., in Akron, Ohio.
The Dow promptly fell 14 points on the news.

Everybody is looking at the quarterly change in non-farm business unit labor costs, which rose at an annualized 2.5% rate. That's the fastest since 2004Q4. Bloomberg fretted that "U.S. labor costs increased by the most since 2000", but that is a year-over-year measure which is partly the result of unusual falling unit labor costs in 2004Q2.

But let's look at things from the point of view of labor instead of capital, however. Real hourly compensation in the second quarter rose an annualized 0.2%, the slowest pace in a year. The year-over-year figures are a relatively high (for recent times) 3.5%, but that again is built on real hourly compensation declines in 2004Q1 and 2004Q2.

According to BEA statistics, real employee compensation in 2005Q2 rose an annualized 2.7%. Benefits (including social security payments) rose a real annualized 3.5% while real wages and salaries were up a much tamer annualized 2.5%. From the BLS we know that hours in Q2 rose an annualized 2.2% -- and thus we're back to that extremely small real wage/salary gain in April-June of this year.

The real "concern" in these reports is not inflation. It is that capital's profit margin is beginning to shrink. Well after the years and years of record profit gains under Bush, let me cry you a river.

321 Comments:

At 3:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ummm okay. no inflation. tell that to somebody who has to drive 50 miles to work. or tell that to somebody who has to count change to buy food at the supermarket.

i have a feeling general glut makes enough money so that he doesn't notice his gas bill, heating bill, vegetable and meat and chicken bill...and all he sees is that the price of flat screen tvs is coming down.

news for you, general, inflation is worst for the poor.

 
At 4:34 PM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

Ummm okay, anonymous, you have no idea what my life is like -- how much money I make, how many children I support, how much of my income I give away, how my house is heated, etc. etc. I don't own a flat screen TV or even a cell phone or a dining room table at which five people can sit.

My comments are about general inflation and its macroeconomic effects. Yes, the poor are rightly worried about fuel inflation (food inflation is at its lowest level in two years by the way). If you had read my post carefully, you would have seen that I am saying that economists should not be worried about wage inflation because it doesn't exist. Which I would think somebody like you would support. Maybe not.

 
At 4:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A couple of points:

1. The concern is mostly about slowing productivity growth rather than compensation, and certainly not about wages per se. (Benefit costs are a possible problem.) Reuters’ reference to “wage costs” is at least misleading, if not straight-out wrong. Slowing productivity growth and rising benefit costs are a problem for both capital and labor.

2. I don’t think you can be so cavalier in separating the issue of profit margins from the issue of inflation. Businesses with large profit margins can afford not to raise prices when their costs go up (as they would, for example, if a hurricane were to disrupt the country’s fuel supply). Also, businesses that anticipate large profit margins are less likely to raise prices than those that don’t, so the news that profit margins are beginning to decline can be inflationary if the declines are perceived as the beginning of a trend.

 
At 4:52 PM, Anonymous knzn said...

Somehow the name got omitted from my last comment (A couple of points…). Obviously I’m not the same as the other anonymous.

 
At 9:55 AM, Blogger frank said...

anonymous- Slowing productivity growth would only be a problem for labor if labor were capturing some of the gains from productivity growth.

Since there has been no evidence for that for a number of years I would have to rank it relatively low on my list of concerns

 
At 11:49 AM, Anonymous knzn said...

(formerly “Anonymous” due to an error; see my post above.)

frank: Over long periods of time, the evidence that labor shares in the gains from productivity growth is overwhelming. It is a puzzle why that hasn’t happened in the past few years. But if you look at any long term chart of capital’s share of output, you will see that it is reasonably stable and mean-reverting. Productivity, on the other hand, has gone straight up (that is, the growth rate has almost always been positive). I don’t think anyone expects today’s unusually small labor share to get significantly smaller, no matter what happens. So if there were more productivity growth today, some of the benefits would almost certainly go to labor.

 
At 8:04 PM, Anonymous Tom Marney said...

But what if there's a new paradigm?

That's a joke. Kind of.

 
At 4:16 AM, Anonymous cm said...

knzn: More precisely, who has shared in the gains from productivity growth were largely the survivors of the layoffs (what is your definition of "labor"?), and that only to the extent that they were not expendable, e.g. by a large reserve army of like-skilled unemployed. I don't think the burger flippers or cleaning personnel have shared much, but you are welcome to prove me wrong.

This underlying principle has not changed. What has changed is that the range of who is considered expendable has broadened, at least when it comes to perception. That at the level of the employer-employee relationship, as well as the position of vendor companies vs. their customers, along the whole supply chains/networks.

E.g., before 2000 I bought a new computer every few years, and they were never up to what I needed, or thought I would. My last computer I bought in 2000, and did not have a desire to replace it yet, other than for a crashed hard disk. That the computer industry is not doing extraordinarily well, and outsourcing/offshoring are rampant, is not an independent phenomenon.

 
At 9:56 AM, Anonymous knzn said...

I would suggest that, historically, productivity growth has been associated with high employment as well as rising wages. The late 90s were a good time for working people in general, though perhaps not as much so for low-skill service workers. The Fed allowed the employment boom to continue specifically because it believed that productivity gains would offset wage pressures. If there’s bad news about productivity growth, that’s bad news for everyone.

 
At 2:30 PM, Anonymous cm said...

knzn: No, there is nothing bad about productivity growth, and I would be one of the last to prescribe limiting productivity as a "solution" to unemployment. But there is genuine productivity (same-quality output per paid/reported work hour), and fake "productivity" --

* off-the-clock work, "exempt" overtime, "working from home",
* charging the fruits of unreported offshore work hours to domestic accounts,
* diminished quality of product/service (trivially scripted support responses, deep phone menus, 10+ minutes of "your call is important to us", rerouting phone support to do-it-yourself web search, hidden extra charges for previously standard features, etc.)

I'd say we have more of the fake variety these days, plus hedonic adjustment.

I have quoted this example before but will do it again -- I had called up my health care plan administrator to find out about a specific facility, and finally got the person on the phone to admit that she is looking at exactly the same website as I, with the obvious implication that she could not add any more information to the process. That's what our services productivity looks like.

 
At 4:18 PM, Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

Gen Glut,

Outstanding blog. Productiviy growth has far outstripped wage growth under Bush. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, productivity has increased 18.7% since January 2001. The link for this is:
BLS:Productivity

In contrast, inflation-adjusted hourly wages have increased only 0.2% over the same period of time. The link for this is:
BLS:Wages

Using this information, productivity increases have greatly exceeded wage growth. There is every reason to think that wages will not keep pace. Inflation-adjusted wages have declined 0.5% since January of 2005. In contrast, productivity has increased 5% since January. Again, all of these numbers can found at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics site given above.

unlawflcombatnt
EconomicPopulistCommentary

 
At 6:34 PM, Anonymous knzn said...

cm: You may be right about fake productivity being more important these days. But I still think, in any particular quarter, unless you have a specific reason why the amount of fake productivity might have changed in that particular quarter, that lower-than-expected productivity growth is bad news, and higher is good news, for labor as well as capital. (One example of a specific reason was the turn of the millennium, when there may have been various Y2K-related factors exaggerating productivity, e.g. unmeasured exempt overtime by IT people.)

unlawflcombatnt: A couple of technical points, which may offset each other (1) Part (not the main part, but an important one) of the reason that wages grew so slowly relative to productivity is that benefit costs have been rising quickly; if you do it in terms of total compensation rather than wages, the contrast is not quite as dramatic. (2) On the other hand, if you measure productivity from income side of the national accounts rather than the product side, it’s considerably higher in the last couple of quarters, so the contrast may end up being even more dramatic.

But again, it’s very unusual for capital’s share of output to be as high as it is now. In the past it has tended to revert to its mean. I would be very surprised to see it get much higher than it is now.

 
At 6:59 PM, Anonymous Lord said...

Still, productivity increases must flow to income eventually. If companies won't increase wages, then profits must fall and eventually real prices as business will have no increased demand for their products. Falling real prices will either produce real income growth or take us into a depression as businesses cut back to preserve margins. And the solution for depression is .. you guessed it .. war.

 
At 2:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The fact that wages + benefit outpaced productivity for the first time in years is a very good news. News that the long awaited rebalance of the economy away from a bubly asset driven economy to a sound revenue based economy may be started.
However I doubt it will happen.
Since the 1980's, wages + benefit have lagged somewhat productivity.
I posted some data here and there on the subject.
And it's a global trend.
A direct result of globalisation and deregulations (anti trade union stance, anti redistributive tax policies etc.)

This is the reason why we are heading towards a general glut.

let's be simple : if wages were high enough, consumers would not need to borrow to buy all the production of consumption (consuming ?) goods.
If they did borrow, it might only be inasmuch as US imports of consumption goods exceeds US exports of those goods.
But I don't think it's the case.

Let's say the trade balance in such goods is -5% of GDP.
How much is the consumer debt load added each year ?
I don't know.

 
At 5:15 PM, Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

Anonymous (who said "if wages were high enough, consumers would not need to borrow to buy all the production..."

I completely agree. Profits are made from sale of production. Someone needs to buy production. If consumers can't buy it with income, it has to be bought with borrowed money or production won't be purchased, and demand for it will decline. The housing/asset/borrowing bubble has allowed record amounts of borrowed money to supplement the consumer income financed portion of spending. When this bubble bursts, consumer spending will decline, demand for production will decline, and our economy will decline.

The only way out of this is if the wage-productiviy gap shrinks enough before the bubble bursts. Bush's policies make that unlikely.

unlawflcombatnt
EconomicPopulistCommentary

 
At 3:10 AM, Anonymous DF said...

that was me (DF)

May be 2006 is the date. Mish has beautiful posts on the number of people owning homes (and mortgages) who'll get interest rate increases in coming years. The bulk is 2006.

 
At 8:36 AM, Anonymous DF said...

and now imports are falling.
falling imports, rising exports, rising wages ... It seems we have all the ingredients for a smooth adjustment. But can the trend be sustained ?
why did imports fall ?

 
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If your application for credit is denied due to information supplied by a credit bureau, the company you applied to must be liable to provide you with that credit bureau's contact information. Furthermore you are entitled to a free copy of your credit report if you've been denied credit within the last 60 days

Disputing credit mistakes or outdated items is free. Just ask the credit reporting agency for a dispute form or submit your dispute in writing, attach any supporting documentation. Always send them a copy instead of the original

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