Friday, September 23, 2005

Rita's path

The further east she turns, the more oil platforms in the Gulf are in the direct path of the storm.

Thus I must admit I'm a little surprised that the markets have been reacting to the eastward shift in Rita's path positively. Crude oil on the NYMEX is down to $64.80/barrel at latest. Reaction seems to be driven by confidence that refining capacity won't be damaged due to the storm's weakening to Category 3 status rather than any concerns over post-Rita production capacity.

The only thing that is certain at this point is that folks in Port Arthur had better get out or hunker down.

707 Comments:

At 4:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, General, how cum these Gulf oil rigs, which is deesigned to withstand more'n uh Category 5 hurricane, keep'a'gettin' knocked outta pro-duction by Category 4 hurricanes? Ohl rigs never used to get knocked out in such great numbers before and they's been big 'canes that hit the Gulf coast rigs before. What's different? If Ah recallll correct like, Engineering is a science, not an art, ain't it? Ah mean, them ohl rig engineers can still add and subtract and integrate, cain't they? Who's woofin' who here? Either the ohl companies have been cuttin' corners, er their ohl rig engineering firms have been cuttin' corners, or there ain't no real damage occurrin'. Which is it, General? Ya got any idea?

Sincerely and obediently yours,
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At 9:13 PM, Blogger calmo said...

We are so relieved you're obedient Corporal.
Still, that is a good/interesting point(s): the rigs are designed to withstand heavy weather and the region gets no photos of those rigs toppling over or even coverage of environmental damage due to oil contamination. Maybe they get capped and the connections to vessels/shore temporarily disconnected. The rigs suffer little damage and supplies are only temporarily curtailed. This curtailment is amplified by those who have a stake in oil futures.
Just my nearly sincere and not too obedient opinion.

 
At 11:23 AM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

They lie about many things.

Especially oil. No snooping reporters, no stories will leak out.

 
At 3:55 PM, Blogger Epimethee said...

yep we get little info about oil related damage.

 
At 4:39 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Have to agree Madam --truth is not the central dimension of criticism with the press. Doonsbury encapsulated this neatly the other day with a remark about the upcoming investigations serving only the function of fleshing out the story.
The protest in DC gave me some hope that people are fed up with the incompetence of the govenment and the complicity of the press.

 
At 2:59 AM, Blogger Epimethee said...

Reality exists.
If oil damage there was, then sooner or later there will be less oil at the pump and less gaz to warm US households this winter and provide electricity ...

Unless of course, thanks to climate warming the winter turns mild.

That's the good thing about climate warming, it may lead to lower winter energy bill.
May.
May not.

 
At 3:16 PM, Blogger Epimethee said...

info keeps coming in about the impact of rita on refineries oil platform and gaz ...
May be, this is a typical media boom and bust and boom stuff.
First katrina is dangerous, then the worst has not happened the storm has not touched new orleans, then the levees break and anarchy is there, then the all country comes to the rescue...
THen rita is armageddon, then it did no harm, then ???

then there might be a serious pb with gaz and refineries.

 
At 1:55 AM, Blogger calmo said...

But now we hear there was significant damage caused by Rita with several rigs damaged and others adrift.
The supply shortage spin is definitely on. (Of course W says don't use the car unnecessarily.)
I also get the message that rig demand is at record levels, as if the oil was just waiting to be pumped by oil rigs should they make an appearance. I'm not a petroleum engineer but this sounded fishy. No, dumb.

 
At 2:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder if the General's "dystopian sensibilities" are piqued by the Yahoo story on highest-ever (records started in 1971) credit card payment delinquincy.

Scarily, it's like the current account deficit - the quartly number (4.81%) wasn't that obviously greater than the previous qtr (4.76%). No info on where the previous qtr stands historically, or what the top ever was.

Not good news. If I ever am in personal proximity to one of those Wall Street economists when they blather that crap about "the amazing American consumer" I don't know how I'm going to resist re-arranging his nose.

A country whose citizens go into this kind of debt is looking at either desparation or a mass psychosis, or quite likely both.

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Friend of mine says his company lost two jack-up rigs to Rita.

 
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Americans' personal savings rate remained in negative territory in August at minus 0.7 percent. That compared to a minus 1.1 percent personal savings rate in July, which had been the all-time low.

 
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I expect the saving rate to climb back to 10% ... And I'm sure the process will prove to be nasty.

 
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