Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Binge and bunk

It is not unusual in my house and the houses of my relatives for the male members of the family eat tremendous amounts of food at the Thanksgiving table, and then saunter off to the couch to watch football and in quick succession fall asleep. The American consumer seems to be exhibiting the same "binge and bunk" behavior.
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $350.1 billion, a decrease of 2.1 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month
The end of the auto buying spree has clearly wreaked its revenge in the data. Motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a stunning -12.0% (SA) change in but a single month. Eliminating the "noise" from this sector shows overall retail and food service sales actually increasing 1.0%. But again, much of this is due to rising gas costs. Gasoline station sales were up 4.4% on the month. Total retail and food sales minus autos and minus gasoline (I'll call it TMAMG) were up just 0.53%.

Now believe it or not, this rate in TMAMG is better than in July when it was 0.0% or in May when it was 0.01% or March when it was 0.05%. But compare 2005 thus far to 2004 and you see the slowdown. In 2004 there were 5 months when seasonally adjusted TMAMG growth was below 0.6%. So far in 2005 we've had 5 and it's only August.

When one looks at a July personal savings rate of -0.6% or a personal savings rate over the last four months (April-July) of 0.0%, we shouldn't be too surprised to see American consumers beginning ever so slightly and ever so reluctantly to move over to the couch after the big binge. We'll continue to buy our gasoline to put in our new cars, but we're not going to be spending on much of anything else.

In short, this retail data -- not just for August but for the whole year -- suggests we are hitting the wall. Katrina may be slapping us up against it for the next month or two, but it's not primarily her fault. That big fat share (70%) of US GDP which is consumption expenditures just can't contribute that 2-3% of overall real GDP growth any more without big new influxes of debt or income. Looking out onto the American consumer horizon, all I can see is government-debt-supported post-Katrina consumption. But how much?

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At 7:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

General,

Recall the following events and plunge protection team (PPT) responses, then consider the CFR's and Bilder's recent endorsements of demand destruction as policy for dealing with oil shortages, global warming, rising commodity demand, debt bubbles, etc.,; then respond what you think the ppt response will be to Katrina and consumer spending declines, and whatever else happens between now and then next time CFR and Bilder's endorse a policy different than demand destruction?

EVENTS: PPT RESPONSE
dot.com bust: PPT upped liquidity
9/11: PPT upped liquidity
Afghan. War: PPT upped liquidity
Iraq War: PPT upped liquidity
House mkt plateau: PPT upped liquidity
Oil price rise: PPT upped liquidity
Gold price rise: PPT upped liquidity

Now as Katrina sucks legislative appropriations and consumer spending begins to crater, what will the PPT do?

Best regards,
Corporal Glut

 
At 7:58 AM, Anonymous DF said...

and now employment fall.
In response to the precedent comment, I would say, forget the PPT ... They control nothing.
Think the market
EVENTS: market response
dot.com bust: increased consumer debt
9/11: increased consumer debt
Afghan. War: increased gvt debt
Iraq War: increased gvt debt

House mkt plateau: increased consumer debt
Oil price rise: increased consumer debt
Gold price rise: who cares ?

what next ?
Well of course, a debt deflation crisis and reduced liquidity.

 
At 1:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Regarding the preceding comment, what do you think I actually meant by increased liquidity? Let me clarify: I meant the Fed and Treasury increase debt and in turn currency supply to monetize the debt so that the PPT can have more liquidity in various forms to funnel quasi-secretly to investment banking houses so that they in turn will create another layer of derivatives to hedge risks and stimulate demand. this process leads the paper residue of increased contractual debts that you note. Perhaps we are talking about two sides of the same coin here.

Regarding competitive markets: FORGET them as being sole or even primary determinants of price, demand and supply in a fiat debt and currency economy. In the current domestic and global economy dominated as most statistics and anecdotal observations indicate that it is, by privately owned central banking trusts (e.g., Rockefeller/Rothschild still own the controlling shares of the NY Fed branch which by institutioned rules holds veto over the entire Fed system), producer oligopolies and monopolies, and intel-drug-banking cartels, markets appear to be routinely constrained in the mid and long term (constraints changing as uncertainties manifest) and frequently manipulated in the short term (have you watched gasoline pump prices yo-yo ofen independent of supply balance/imbalance the last few years?).

Frankly, free markets are metaphysical concepts and always have been. Markets tend to be instituted and regulated either formally or informally by producers or by government and producers. Consumer protection regulation is a johnny come lately that seems to be being eroded. And the pricing efficiencies markets can in theory provide are largely eroded by monopolies, oligopolies and cartels becoming dominant either on the producer (currently the broad tendancy) or the consumer sides. FWIW, Walmart is the biggest dog in a domestic (trying to go global) procuring/retailing oligopoly that acts to pound down the cost of goods for consumers. Alas, Walmart's monopoly in certain trade areas and oligopoly (WalKTarMart if you will) in others is doing to producers what producer's have done to consumers since oligopoly became the most ubiquitous regime serving trade areas/markets. To put it into plain language, the Walmarts of the world bargain producers down so low that they have to use peonage, child, slave and prison labor in places like China to meet Walmart's bargaining demands. Should we praise the Walmarts of the world for bringing down prices? Not really. What they do does not create economic efficiency (supplying the most quantity at functional goods and services for the most persons at the lowest price with the least cost); rather, what they oftne do is perpetrate vicious, cruel economic cost shifting onto already poor, legally unprotected peons, children, slaves and prisoners and then distribute the goods and net benefits asymmetrically. One could achieve the beneficial effect of bringing employment and a much higher standard of living to peons, slaves, and prisoners (and eliminating the horror of child labor) by simply paying them a wage equivalent to g8 country wages, increasing liquidity proportionately for the relevant economic sector by means the PPT and central banking money trusts already employ effectively for other ends, and then let the well paid Chinese workers produce goods for Walmart stores in China (China would be quite a large market itself I hear) that could charge prices comparable to those in America. Further, Americans could be put back to work in domestic factories at high wages and produce the same goods for Walmart stores in American markets. Henry Ford proved this could work in the private sector in a large non-union manufacturing concern entirely without government regulatory supports or fiat liquidity. He did it ages ago. He just raised his workers wages out of his profits (rather than giving it all to his shareholders and himself), so they could afford to buy more cars and things from his company stores. Its even easier to do when you get to create the liquidity out of thin air, as central bank money trusts can do. Ford actually had to earn his first.

Free markets are for suckers. Every oligopolist, monopolist, cartelist and central banking money trust player knows this; that's why they tend to invest heavily in regulation, in side payments and strategic vertical and horizontal integrations that channel economic activity away from free, open and competitive markets and into conditions where price and margins can be determined. From the salt oligopoly of Venice to Microsoft's desktop monopoly; the structure and change in economic history (thanks dougie north) has evidenced this time and again. no oligopoly, monopoly, cartel, or money trust can last for ever. Changing technology and strategic relationships always cause successions. But there has never been a time when new oligopolies, monopolies, cartels and money trusts and the institutions the accrete did not emerge and significantly determine or shape "markets."

Corporal Glut

 
At 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh, and one more thing, everything I said in my post above (and in any thing else I ever say here) is entirely an opinion. You're supposed to make that clear these days, right?

Corporal Glut

 
At 7:05 PM, Blogger calmo said...

I'm not sure what you're saying Corporal, but your opinion smells pretty good to me.
Are we supposed to think it's not an opinion? Something like a writ or message from God maybe?
Good thing you weren't in charge of writing the Bible with a preface like: "This is entirely an opinion.".
One last thing: those free markets that you so thoroughly discount, are concentrating wealth and power in the hands of fewer players.
This " no oligopoly, monopoly, cartel, or money trust can last for ever." looks suspect to me --just my opinion.

 
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