Thursday, September 15, 2005

Another tepid inflation report

I know. It's hard to not look at those gasoline signs while you drive to and fro. But if you can ignore them, you'll see that consumer inflation in the United States is quite simply not a problem.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in August, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The August level of 196.4 (1982-84=100) was 3.6 percent higher than in August 2004.
Yes, let's admit it. A one month leap of 0.5% and a 3.6% annual rate sounds scary. First, put things into perspective. Any inflation under 5% is low. Say it with me all together. Under 5% equals low. If you insist on fretting, I'll tell you that 3.6% is the highest annual CPI inflation rate in five years (since July 2000) and over the last six months the US is on a more worrisome 4.8% annualized inflation trajectory.

But hear me out.

The annual CPI inflation rate on all items less energy is a tame 2.2%. In fact, non-energy inflation has been amazingly stable since April 2004, fluctuating in a 2.0-2.4% band. Over the first half of 2005 non-energy consumer inflation is running at 2.3%, only slightly higher than the second half of 2004 (2.2%) and at the same annual rate of 2002.

Back in the bad ol' early 1980s, super-high energy prices drove very high general inflation. That's just not the story today as the below chart of annual non-energy consumer inflation by month shows.

If the Fed wants to reign in housing and energy inflation, by all means go to it. But raising interest rates on everybody and everything is hardly the best way of going about it.

115 Comments:

At 10:01 AM, Anonymous DF said...

I bet all these people unemployed post katrina will spend more and push prices up.
So will workers of the bankrupt airlines.
And so will workers of soon to be bankrupt GM and Ford.

 
At 10:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing and Healthcare are both woefully under-represented in the CPI data. Housing is a well-known debacle within the CPI. The calculation for owner-occupied rents is plain BS. Where are the 20% yearly increases? We've all seen them in prices in NY/LA/DC/Boston/San Diego/Las Vegas?

Health-care cost rises are also woefully underrepresented.

In short -- the CPI number is BS. It is a mechanism by which the government is able to politically minimize COLA increases to SS/Medicare/Medicaid beneficiaries and its own employees.

Clearly the bond market can see past this -- right? Well -- not if the long end of the curve is massively overbought by Foreign Central Banks buying bonds for non-economic reasons. Japan/China/SKorea/Taiwan/Russia/etc. are fools to accept a 4.15% yield on the 10-year. That yield doesn't cover true inflation and won't cover a loss in the value of the dollar against other currencies.

So -- stop being a fool and believing these hogwash CPI numbers.

 
At 11:38 AM, Anonymous Chuck Roast said...

It's like the man said, Glut...if your a fasting pedestrian, then everything is A-OK.

 
At 11:55 PM, Blogger Tim said...

Anon 11:37 forgot to mention quality adjustments, pegged currencies, and bond purchases by hedge funds out of the Carribean, but otherwise did a fine job.

 
At 3:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tsss present inflation is driven up by increasing debt level. Since those levels are now through the roof. The great unraveling is there at hands. Bond markets know it.
I bet interest rates will say below 5% for a decade. Deflation is there lurking around

 
At 8:24 AM, Blogger calmo said...

"If the Fed wants to reign in housing and energy inflation, by all means go to it."
It's true Greenspan has made some remarks about reigning in Fannie and Freddie but unless we construe this as part of the (Bernanke's?) "unconventional measures", ( ie lobbying Congress) the Fed is pretty much powerless, no?
QED, no?
Could be the recent increase in the prime is designed to bolster confidence in an economy that needs to know that something is measured and controlled --not a sinking quagmire that might take a couple of hundred billion (or "whatever it takes" in the words of the President) to refloat. A pause would send the message that the present course needed an adjustment, that it was perhaps even mistaken and needed correction.
But this administration is incapable of making mistakes, --even recognizing them.
Just a bit of a strain to see the devastation along the Gulf coast and be told that the economy is strong.
But the media can handle it as their coverage of the mass demonstrations on the weekend illustrated: there was support for and against the government apparently.

It took the UK more than a year to back away from 4.75% and many are saying more retracing is in order to get their economy moving again. I noticed there was one dissenter in the FOMC who thought that the rate could have been left unchanged. (It was not the same guy who thought we were in the bottom of the 8th inning.)
Katrina engendered(s) a lot of insecurity and I'm sure the dissenter will get the same treatment from Greenspan as the baseball fan/governor: STFU.

 
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