Thursday, September 01, 2005

-0.6%

Just resurfacing for a brief moment to say: I told you so.
The combination of a surge in spending and slower income growth sent the personal savings falling to a minus 0.6 percent, the lowest level since the government began keeping these [monthly] records in 1959.
In 1933 the personal savings rate in the US was -1.5% -- the lowest ever. Over the first 7 months of 2005 it stands at +0.2%. We're trying to break the record. Honest, we're trying.

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At 9:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And this is at what is probably the peak of the cycle. '33 was, if I recall correctly, the absolute trough. There isnt a lot of room to go down at this point given the massive debt households have. And we may just now be seeing the trigger that pushes us over the edge - $3.10/gallon at my local gas station. Now THERE is some seriously bad psychology. Most people bought their car when the first figure was a 1 not a 3.

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At 9:41 AM, Blogger Emmanuel said...

You're right about this non-stop assault on unlimited consumerism, General Glut. At this point, I'm thinking of offering spreads on whether the current account deficit will reach $1 trillion in 2006.

I'd love to figure out the odds first, though. Maybe someone can enlighten us.

 
At 9:53 AM, Blogger David said...

Perhaps some of the growing negative consumer spending can be accounted for by the auto 'employee discount' pricing.

Either way it does NOT bode well for our country. The recession is coming soon. I expect a Black Christmas, the worst since 90 - 91

 
At 9:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

odds of $ 1 trillion deficit in 06 are maybe 50/50, maybe a bit less. $1 trillion works out to about 7.5% of expected US GDP. At the end of this year, the current account deficit will likely be about 7% of GDP on a quarterly basis. Higher levels of debt/ interest on the debt will tend to push the current account deficit up if the trade deficit doesn't fall. If oil stays at $70 without slowing overall us growth substantially, i think the deficit pushes over $1 trillion. if the economy slows, though, the deficit might not reach that level.

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At 3:31 AM, Blogger Emmanuel said...

Thanks for the analysis, Dr. Setser. I looked at some of the debt servicing figures and didn't think that its share of the outflows was particularly large. I guess I misunderestimate its inertia. If you say so, I am inclined to believe.

I can't see how consumers can keep up their habit of deficit spending. Something is bound to limit excess consumerism. Perhaps a confluence of factors, or a major shock. We'll see. The US$ has been awfully weak lately...

 
At 9:25 AM, Anonymous DF said...

and real wages keep falling !

and next months some hundred thousands people will be out of work...

 
At 1:15 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Well! The Chinese just finished buying America! HU will be here in a few days to give Bush the loans we need, half a fricking trillion...and Bush will waste it all, you will see. Hu has a long list of things he wants. Bush will quietly surrender on every item.

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At 9:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ahem, it's September 8. You promised! (taps fingers impatiently)

 
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Uh, that was me demonstrating whatever that economic principle is that when you give things to people for free they start to feel entitled to it.

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When a small business owner applies to a lending institution for a business loan, the lender reviews the application and decides if it merits a busiuness loan or if it requires an SBA guaranty. SBA backing on the business loan is then requested by the lender. In guaranteeing the business loan, the SBA assures the lender that, in the event the borrower does not repay the loan, the government will reimburse the lender for its loss. By providing this guaranty, the Small Business Administration helps tens of thousands of small business owners get financing they would not otherwise obtain.

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7(a) Loan Guaranty Program

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Low Documentation Loan (SBALowDoc)

SBALowDoc is the SBA’s quick and easy program that provides a guaranty on small business loans of $150,000 or less. Once you have met your lender’s requirements for credit, the lender may request an SBALowDoc guaranty for up to 85 percent of the loan amount. You complete the front of a one-page SBA application, and the lender completes the back. At SBALowDoc centers, the agency processes completed applications within 36 hours.

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• The maximum loan amount under CommunityExpress is $250,000.

• CommunityExpress lenders, together with the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, provide hands-on technical training and support, both before and after loan closings, through community-based, nonprofit NCRC member organizations.

7(m) Microloan Program

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