Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Reaching the Rubicon

Some said it couldn't be done. But we're Americans. "Can't" isn't in our vocabulary.

So we did it. In June 2005 the US personal savings rate officially hit 0.0%. Personal savings recorded were a barely measurable $1.9bn at annualized rates -- or around $160 million for the month.

Over the last year, disposable personal income is up 5.3% while personal consumption expenditures are up 6.7%. And this trend has been going on for years. In June 2004 we were saving around 1.5% of our income. Last month it dissipated like the morning fog into nothingness.

127 Comments:

At 12:05 PM, Blogger David said...

it's sad. Save d*mnit.

 
At 3:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

it's like weimar. why save when ur on the edge of hyperinflation. today's WSJ said big pharma's drug prices +5.5% in just the first half '05. real inflation probably running far > 5%. not even counting the things u really need to buy, like a house, an education, health care. greenspan has turned savers into idiots. we must all spend spend spend to prop up the Republicans. economy must be better under Bush than Clinton. at all costs.

 
At 9:36 PM, Anonymous RW said...

Zero percent personal savings!
And on the same day the yoke of CAFTA is placed upon working Americans!

Not to worry, the helicopters will soon arrive to shower us with... oh, wait...
"Americans will have to fend for themselves to maintain economic security", Ben Bernanke said Tuesday in his first major address since joining the Council of Economic Advisers.

I liked the helicopter story better.

 
At 10:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

lol, good one rw.

The time has come
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To pay our share

The time has come
A fact`s a fact
It belongs to them
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At 12:28 AM, Anonymous A Harless said...

General, how does this zero saving rate fit into your broader view about crises of underconsumption? (Clearly nobody can accuse Americans of underconsuming.)

 
At 1:50 AM, Anonymous DF said...

Harless, it's pretty easy to see the link with the underconsumption crisis.
For the last 20 years, and increasingly so, companies (producers) have prevented wages from rising, while taking profits out of productivity increases.

So we have this situation, if you compare the US worker productivity in 1980 and 2005, its productivity is up say 50% and its wages are up 40%

But something remains unexplained : where goes all the production ? Whom is it sold to ? If workers don't get rising wages, how can they spend more ?

ANd here comes the magic trick of debt. If workers take on more debt they can spend as much as is produced (and even more : imports) even though their wages do not grow enough...

If you ask companies and banks it's the perfect situation : they pay low wages and make high profit AND they make profits out of their financial activities.

Of course it only last until the first wages of bankrupties.

ANd the fed can bring on the helicopters full of cash, deflation is stronger than it's smalll printing press (less than 5% of money supply is printed)

 
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At 9:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To what degree (if any) is the nominal saving rate rendered an inaccurate measure of true saving by the (apparently) steadily increasing fraction of economic activity taking place in the underground economy?

 
At 12:26 PM, Anonymous df said...

I m not sure the underground economy has any impact.
Say I earn 100 in the underground economy, this earning is unreported, and so are my savings on these earnings ... So unless you suppose people who are in the underground economy save more ... or less than those in the normal economy, or unless you suppose these people save publicly the cash they earned in the underground economy ... THis should live the saving rate unchanged.

 
At 3:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I read an article the other day about how inflation has been systematically understated since the early Clinton days (the intent to fix the budget by lowering growth of entitlements indexed to inflation). I'm no expert, but it seems to me that if inflation is being understated then growth is being overstated. General, do you agree and how does this fit in with your deflation views? Thanks

 
At 4:55 PM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

Anon,

Those in the know claim that CPI overstates the inflation rate by around 1.1%. That may be overstated for the current era, however. CPE inflation -- the kind the Fed likes to monitor -- is running at 2.2% while CPI is 2.5%. Not much difference.

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At 8:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

df: My understanding is that the nominal savings rate is computed by subtracting consumption from disposable income. Taking the example of someone paying some workers in cash to renovate a condo they intend to rent or sell, the disposable income to the workers goes uncounted, while the things they buy with it do not. But on the other hand, the payments to them are not counted in the consumption expenditures of the person who hired them; do the effects then simply cancel out?

jm

 
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