Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Mr. Housing Bubble

According to Richard DeKaser, chief economist of National City Corp., housing markets in 53 US cities are currently "extremely overvalued" -- defined as
prices are 30% above where he estimates they should be based on historic price data, area income, mortgage rates and population density — a proxy for land scarcity.
The failure of US incomes to rise much at all in the face of this housing boom is a big culprit.
in 85% of the cities surveyed, home-price gains outpaced income gains during the past year. In Bakersfield, Calif., prices rose 33% while incomes increased 3%. In 29% of areas, prices outpaced income growth by at least 10 percentage points.

Just 2% of markets were in bubbly territory at the start of 2004, vs. 31% in the first quarter of 2005.
Low interest rates aren't getting people into these homes, either. Massive and risky debt is.
Nearly four out of 10 (38.1%) home buyers who bought houses in the first half of 2005 put down less than 5% of the purchase price, up from 30.6% in 2000, according to a study released Tuesday by SMR Research, a Hackettstown, N.J., firm that tracks mortgage debt. Nearly half (49.9%) of buyers put down less than 10%, up from 44.8% in 2000.

Another potential red flag is the growing use of so-called piggyback loans.

Traditionally, home buyers who did not come up with a 20% down payment had to pay an added cost each month for private mortgage insurance. But recently, more strapped borrowers are taking out two loans - one for 80% of the purchase price and a second, or piggyback, loan in the form of a line of credit or home equity loan. So far this year, nearly half (48.2%) of buyers used piggybacks, up sharply from 19.9% in 2001.
USA Today was nice enough to publish DeKaser's list of metro areas, and no surprises here. Of the 20 most overvalued cities, sixteen are in California including Riverside, Sacramento, San Diego and Los Angeles.

Folks might want to up the size of those piggyback loans another $20 so they can buy an appropriate t-shirt to wear around the house:

488 Comments:

At 6:59 PM, Anonymous knzn said...

When I look at the aggregate US data, I don’t find any evidence of a housing bubble. In fact, relative to capitalized rents (discounted at the 10-year TIPS yield), houses look almost 40% cheaper in 2005Q1 than they were in the late 1990s. (See chart at http://www.flickr.com/photos/67919949@N00/34590087/ )

You can quibble with the details of my method. (For example, should I have included a risk premium in the discount rate, since mortgages have higher yields than treasuries? On the other hand, mortgage interest is tax-deductible; and since you have to live somewhere, owning a house is arguably less risky than owning any financial asset.) And of course, we’ve had at least one more quarter of rising house prices, while interest rates have also risen somewhat. But you’ll have to work very hard to get from 40% undervalued to bubblishly overvalued.

I certainly get the impression that people have valid concerns about overvaluation in some cities, and I share the concern that rising interest rates could terminate the housing boom even if it’s not a bubble. However, I’m puzzled that economists like Paul Krugman find that “average prices for the country as a whole … look worrisome.” (Perhaps they make the error of using nominal mortgage rates rather than real rates to capitalize rents – which would imply that houses lose real value as the cost of living goes up.)

If housing is indeed overvalued in many places, it seems they must be offset by places where it is now undervalued.

 
At 9:21 PM, Blogger dryfly said...

If housing is indeed overvalued in many places, it seems they must be offset by places where it is now undervalued.

And if there is a place like that it is Texas... check out Dekaser's list... five of the bottom six are all in Texas.

 
At 9:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think there is little doubt that housing is a bubble, and you would either have to be a stock broker or a condo flipper to argue otherwise. However, that doesnt mean that house prices cannot go higher. My prediction is that the bubble will be around quite a bit longer than most people think. Bubble deflation is unlikely to be a 2005 event.

Vincent

 
At 10:15 PM, Anonymous red said...

The following stories go to show how bad a prognosticator I am.

1. A friend in Hawaii asked my advice last summer on two things i) buy a 2-bedroom waterfront apt for $195,000 ii) buy a 2-bd house for $325,000. In fact suggested that I buy the apt. Well, my advice was that prices in Hawaii were definitely elevated and that there would be a better time to purchase. My friend disregarded my advice and purchased the house. A year later that house is worth 60% more and the apartment that I could have purchased was recently sold by the new owner of a year for a 75% gain.

2) Another friend has a condo in Sacramento. Since it is not being used I advised that he sell it. Again my advise was not taken and the condo is worth 25% more in just a year.

Moral of the story. My advise sucks!!

 
At 10:48 PM, Blogger dryfly said...

red there are lots of mistakes people make and missed opportunities they passed on... .

But an even bigger mistake is to BLINDLY project those same past experiences into the future and expect they will continue to happen.

Only through analysis & understanding of what drove those outcomes can you make a rational analysis of what is likely to happen next time.

Looking forward from here, your past advice is excellent. Prices are too high and will reverse... you were just premature, underestimated the power of greed over fear... but eventually fear will rally and for a while have the advantage and the market will correct.

That isn't to say a few more crazed flippers won't get in and out before the eventual collapse... but the market is increasingly becoming an 'amateur hour' and very dangerous... the newbies are as likely to stampede out as they were to charge in a few months & years ago.

Unless you can afford to lose the principal (the money sunk into the acquired property) or hold on to the asset inspite of the negative cost to carry, possibly for many years... then it isn't a game you should play right now. Going forward this is not going to be a market for the faint of heart or those with shallow pockets.

Those past opportunities are water over the damn now. Gone forever.

 
At 1:00 AM, Anonymous red said...

dryfly

what i wanted to point out from my experience is that timing is very important if you are an investor. being too early or too late is not good. so despite fundamentals showing that real estate is over-valued relative to rents, employment and income growth, when markets turn is difficult to forecast. momentum some times carry things further than one expects. we dont know if that turning point is next week or next year or another 2% from current prices or another 50%.

 
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At 9:09 AM, Blogger Tim said...

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At 9:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

UK - New first-time mortgage counts parents' income

Hilary Osborne
Tuesday August 16, 2005

Parents who are keen to help their children on to the housing ladder are to be offered a new scheme by Norwich & Peterborough building society.

The Lend a Hand scheme, which will be available from August 22, allows parents to boost the amount their offspring can borrow by putting up their income to cover part of the loan.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1550214,00.html

 
At 1:00 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Yo, the English loans: bankrupt two families instead of one!

The coming depression is going to be fun. Lots of empty houses for squatters tired of living under bridges.

 
At 1:56 PM, Blogger dryfly said...

red... I think we agree.

I've been told by by many: "The fundementals are easy... its the timing that's the bitch..."

I think the difference between the succesful investor & the wreckless speculator is that the investor has the resources to survive bad choices & missed timing - wait it out or accept the loss and move on without going broke. Speculators rarely have that luxury.

 
At 2:02 PM, Blogger dryfly said...

My lend-a-hand policy with my kids is I keep an extra bedroom ready... first come, first serve. After that is filled it will be couches.

 
At 2:21 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Wellll, I have an estate and the kids know this so we are set. Unlike 85% of America, it seems, or is it 90%?

Geeze, scary stuff.

If my place is worth $300,000 or $3 I still live here and no one can take it away...except the stupid Supreme Court rip off artists. Nothing is sacred anymore.

 
At 6:27 PM, Blogger dryfly said...

If my place is worth $300,000 or $3 I still live here and no one can take it away...except the stupid Supreme Court rip off artists. Nothing is sacred anymore.

Ya but you live on a mountain... too hard to build a WalMart there...

 
At 10:37 PM, Blogger http://www.economicfractalist.com/ said...

The current housing bubble is unique in that all know it is a bubble. The fractal decay of the current devaluation will also be unique in that all will know in advance its decay sequence.

Is the global economy at the brink of a breakdown much greater than its predecessor in 1929? How do the current imbalances compare to those late Roaring Twenties' similar circumstances of consumer-level forward consumption, debt, overvaluation of assets, and industrial overcapacity? Will the devaluation and asset decay process at the end of the second 70 year sub-fractal - contained within the 140 year Second Grand Fractal cycle beginning in 1858 - be greater than at the end of its first 70 year sub-fractal?

A chicken in every pot and two cars in every garage has been replaced with eating out three of seven nights at the plethora of fast food and dining opportunities that 'froth' the highways and typify the service type of economy the States have become. Three SUV's and a Hummer distributed between a primary residence and an investment residence have superseded the two cars in a garage. Buy a radio or washer on credit has been bested with buy and buy with abandon everything imaginable with ubiquitously facilitated debt from refinanced or second mortgages based on the surety of ever appreciating house prices -the latter caused in part by fed fund rates 1/4 of the rates in 1928.

The evenly balanced declining and increasing annual GDP growth rates prior to 1929 have been replaced with continuous positive annual GDP's growth rates during the past 45 years. The great creditor nation status of 1929 has been substituted with a beggar man debtor bravado country wearing only the emperor's new clothes. Its treasury is writing bad checks against future income that can only be guaranteed if the remaining 57 percent of the US private (nongovernmental) work force becomes governmentalized allowing a Weimar type of hyperinflation. In short the consumer saturation point of 1929 looks very appealing against the very poor economic hand that America now holds. Consider America's current financial balance sheet and thereafter consider how badly the unbalanced excesses of 1929 unfolded.

In the next nine weeks, data - which has always been there - will be re-recognized. GM's and Ford's junk bond status and their probability of default on a collective 450 billion dollars of debt will reappear. The thousand mirrors that reflect a single dollar in the derivatives markets will have key reflecting glasses broken erasing the image in 925. The housing bubble, that is so historically remarkable in its uniqueness in that virtually all know it to be a bubble, will crack. The microcosm of forward consumption in the last two months of the American auto business will witness the expected necessary microcosm of historically poor follow-on monthly sales. Major airlines will throw in the towel declaring bankruptcy and pension amnesty. Declining monthly GDP will receive attention. The real position of the individual debtor and the debtor country in the face of declining asset valuations and projected tax revenues will get its due. Fiscally impossible city and state governmental pension funds whose futures are tied to the equity markets and escalating real estate property values will have a viability reality check. For the first time in many years the concept of consumer retrenchment will be seriously and widely explored as a probable scenario.

The comparative initiating decay fractals at the secondary summit, with respect to March 2000, of US equity indices suggest a very remarkable primary revaluation. Watch the general trend and descent of the long term US note and bond debt markets as exiting money from equities and commodities flows into these long term debt instruments driving their interest rates lower. Gold has potentially only one more week before completing its maximal 12/30/30 weekly growth cycle with an abrupt devaluation. Opposite to gold, the dollar will transiently trend well. Expect the unexpected. Within this quantum fractal decay process, expect nonlinearity. Gary Lammert http://www.economicfractalist.com/ "

 
At 2:00 PM, Anonymous Joshua said...

Stephen Schurr at the Financial Times predicting tough times in the US:

America faces a big chill

[Extract]

"The "soft" observations worry me even more. A seemingly well-heeled couple I know recently revealed they were selling their home because they were drowning in debt. What’s more, their revelation led to several friends confiding that they were teetering as well, and their real estate agent said the forced sellers constitute a rapidly growing market. I am worried that all this may point to the painful post-bubble recession many, including Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, believed we had avoided."

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2badb480-0ff7-11da-bd5c-00000e2511c8.html

 
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hey, nice blog here, mind if i do a link exchange with you?
my blog's nice too, it's about secret google adsense
stuffs, many more, even becoming rich wealthy exact instructions, something you can't miss!Trust me, you'll change your life in a matter of minutes : )
Can visit my blog about google adsense secrets, business opportunities, becoming rich, and much more, if you don't want to be rich dont ever click

 
At 7:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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At 7:32 AM, Blogger Work From Home Center said...

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, please feel free to visit.

 
At 12:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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I have a Bad Credit Cards Database site. It pretty much covers Bad Credit Cards Database related stuff.

Come and check it out if you get time :-)

 
At 2:03 PM, Blogger Johnny said...

hello, your blog is interesting to read, I have a website about internet marketing, it should be helpful to you in making more web money. This is a global trend that more and more people can make a living online, so make sure you visit it.

 
At 3:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great blog you have my friend..

I have a consumer debt negotiation site. Pretty much related to this site.

Drop by and take a look..

Warmest Regards.

 
At 3:17 PM, Blogger Steve Smith said...

Very interesting blog. Most impressed. Thanks....Just thought I'd let you
know about a site where you can earn an extra income from your website. You might
find it worthwhile to check it out.
home business

 
At 4:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, what a really good refinance fha home loan blog you got here! Keep up the good work. I too have a refinance fha home loan related site that I think would be of interest to your readers. Would love your feedback

 
At 2:00 AM, Blogger doer said...

Hello, just visited your blog, it's informative. I also have a website related togoogle adsense software. So make sure you visit and hope it's useful.

 
At 3:34 AM, Blogger Cybernetics Core said...

Stay out of the Malls
by: make easy money online

If possible, stay away from shopping malls.
High-dollar shopping malls have expensive
overhead and are designed to sell, sell, sell.
Prices are generally higher and in most cases,
people walk out with more than they anticipated
buying. It is better to shop at stand-alone
shops or on the Internet.

make easy money online

 
At 3:45 AM, Blogger Google Page Rank 6 said...

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