Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Inflation? It's all about oil

In July 2005, crude oil (WTI) spot prices jumped 4.7%, average gasoline prices rose 6.1%, and petroleum import prices rose 6.6%. No wonder, then, that the the CPI for petroleum-based energy rose 6.1% on the month -- the only thing keeping consumer inflation above the zero line.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The July level of 195.4 (1982-84=100) was 3.2 percent higher than in July 2004. . . .

Energy costs advanced sharply, increasing 3.8 percent in July after falling 0.5 percent in June. Within energy, the index for petroleum-based energy rose 6.1 percent in July, accounting for over one-half of the increase in the overall CPI.
Let's face it -- there aint nothin' gonna stop us 'Mericans from buyin' our gas. Those skyrocketing gas prices might stop us from buying everything else, however.

Core annual consumer inflation in July was 2.1%, and the three-month annualized seasonally-adjusted figure was just 1.6% -- slightly higher than June's 1.2% but both well below the recent pace. Thus the annual core inflation rate of 2.1% is the lowest since October 2004. If we look at all items less energy (i.e. including food) we're now at the lowest CPI inflation rate since August 2004.

One item in the July report jumped out at me -- apparel deflation. Since 1999 deflation is this sector has been standard, reaching quite dramatic levels in 2002 (-2.6%) and 2003 (-2.5%). Since July 1998 apparel prices are -11.5% in nominal terms and -31% in real terms. After having recovered some price stability earlier this year, apparel prices (SA) were -0.7% in June and another -0.9% in July -- or -3.3% and -3.8% NSA. Those big price drops probably have something to do with the apparel glut on the US market. Apparel prices fell 3.3% in June while apparel imports rose 21.1% in volume terms. Sure, the end of the Multifiber Agreement is good for all producers, not just China. And say, about that bridge you were interested in . . .

While it would take a lot more analysis than I'm willing to do, there seems to be reason to believe that US consumers are becoming unable to absorb all the production being dumped on US markets, whether domestic- or foreign-made. After growing a big 6.0% in 2004Q4, industrial production of consumer goods in the US grew 1.7% in 2005Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, with another monthly drop (-0.5%) in July. US consumption growth has been outpacing income growth for years now, and with real interest rates finally rising into positive territory (especially mortgage rates), the days of borrow-and-spend are on the wane. I think we'll plug away for the rest of 2005, but check the roost for chickens in early 2006.

416 Comments:

At 10:33 AM, Blogger Vicki said...

How long will manufacturers, distributors, and retailers be able to absorb freight costs? Seems like prices will have to rise accordingly before too long.

 
At 12:52 PM, Anonymous David Dulaney said...

"...there aint nothin' gonna stop us 'Mericans from buyin' our gas."

The IEA expects oil demand to rise to 85.9 million barrels a day by the fourth quarter of this year, which is higher than the global refining capacity. Goldman Sachs' even predicted $105 per barrel. I have been checking out dailyreckoning.com for my info and their opinions on oil. The U.S. is near the bottom of the barrel for many of America's oil fields with declines in output of 160,000 barrels a day. Us 'Mericans are going to have to do something.

 
At 5:05 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

When prices can't rise, markets collapse. You can't sell at a loss forever.

People become unemployed and then we go into a really nasty recession/depression.

Been through more than one already. This one was easy to predict and is following the sorry course all the other ones followed only this time, thanks to the Reagan/Bush spending sprees, we go off the fricking cliff.

 
At 6:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gen. Glut and this site seem to be for lefties. I only value the opinion of those of the Austrian-school. The government is not our friend, but is our biggest enemy.

 
At 10:38 PM, Blogger http://www.economicfractalist.com/ said...

The apogee - the very apogee- of inflation is occuring...
is the global economy at the brink of a breakdown much greater than its predecessor in 1929? How do the current imbalances compare to those late Roaring Twenties' similar circumstances of consumer-level forward consumption, debt, overvaluation of assets, and industrial overcapacity? Will the devaluation and asset decay process at the end of the second 70 year sub-fractal - contained within the 140 year Second Grand Fractal cycle beginning in 1858 - be greater than at the end of its first 70 year sub-fractal?

A chicken in every pot and two cars in every garage has been replaced with eating out three of seven nights at the plethora of fast food and dining opportunities that 'froth' the highways and typify the service type of economy the States have become. Three SUV's and a Hummer distributed between a primary residence and an investment residence have superseded the two cars in a garage. Buy a radio or washer on credit has been bested with buy and buy with abandon everything imaginable with ubiquitously facilitated debt from refinanced or second mortgages based on the surety of ever appreciating house prices -the latter caused in part by fed fund rates 1/4 of the rates in 1928.

The evenly balanced declining and increasing annual GDP growth rates prior to 1929 have been replaced with continuous positive annual GDP's growth rates during the past 45 years. The great creditor nation status of 1929 has been substituted with a beggar man debtor bravado country wearing only the emperor's new clothes. Its treasury is writing bad checks against future income that can only be guaranteed if the remaining 57 percent of the US private (nongovernmental) work force becomes governmentalized allowing a Weimar type of hyperinflation. In short the consumer saturation point of 1929 looks very appealing against the very poor economic hand that America now holds. Consider America's current financial balance sheet and thereafter consider how badly the unbalanced excesses of 1929 unfolded.

In the next nine weeks, data - which has always been there - will be re-recognized. GM's and Ford's junk bond status and their probability of default on a collective 450 billion dollars of debt will reappear. The thousand mirrors that reflect a single dollar in the derivatives markets will have key reflecting glasses broken erasing the image in 925. The housing bubble, that is so historically remarkable in its uniqueness in that virtually all know it to be a bubble, will crack. The microcosm of forward consumption in the last two months of the American auto business will witness the expected necessary microcosm of historically poor follow-on monthly sales. Major airlines will throw in the towel declaring bankruptcy and pension amnesty. Declining monthly GDP will receive attention. The real position of the individual debtor and the debtor country in the face of declining asset valuations and projected tax revenues will get its due. Fiscally impossible city and state governmental pension funds whose futures are tied to the equity markets and escalating real estate property values will have a viability reality check. For the first time in many years the concept of consumer retrenchment will be seriously and widely explored as a probable scenario.

The comparative initiating decay fractals at the secondary summit, with respect to March 2000, of US equity indices suggest a very remarkable primary revaluation. Watch the general trend and descent of the long term US note and bond debt markets as exiting money from equities and commodities flows into these long term debt instruments driving their interest rates lower. Gold has potentially only one more week before completing its maximal 12/30/30 weekly growth cycle with an abrupt devaluation. Opposite to gold, the dollar will transiently trend well. Expect the unexpected. Within this quantum fractal decay process, expect nonlinearity. Gary Lammert http://www.economicfractalist.com/ "

 
At 2:28 AM, Anonymous Iowan said...

"I only value the opinion of those of the Austrian-school."

I've read Hayek, Rothbard, et al., and find their arguments unconvincing. I find economists such as Michael Perelman (The Perverse Economy) and some of the market socialists much more connected to reality.

"there seems to be reason to believe that US consumers are becoming unable to absorb all the production being dumped on US markets, whether domestic- or foreign-made."

Isn't this the formula for deflation?

 
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