Friday, August 05, 2005

Good labor stats, seasonally adjusted for your comfort

The BLS reports today that the job picture in the US is looking pretty good. After a very disappointing May and June, July turns in a better-than-expected number.
Nonfarm employment grew by 207,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the month, payroll employment rose in many service-providing industries.
Note that the Bloomberg consensus forecast was just 175,000 jobs. With July plus a 20,000 job upwards revision to the weak June numbers, The Capital Spectator says we're "cookin' with gas" now.

I can't help but think that Barry Ritholtz is basically right, however, when I look at the seasonally unadjusted numbers. Barry is always going on about the funny number crunching done by the BLS among others, and the July figures seem out of sorts to me.

Case in point: the SA jobs number for July was +207,000 while the NSA number was -1,201,000. That in and of itself is not what caused my eyebrows to rise. What did is the fact that the NSA figure for July 2005 (-1,201,000) showed greater job loss than in July 2004 (-1,143,000), and yet the SA figure for July 2005 (+207,000) is two-and-a-half times larger than the SA number for July 2004 (+83,000). This is quite unlike January and April of both years, in which the SA and NSA figures are very similar (SA: 1/2004, +117; 1/2005, +124. NSA: 1/2004, -2661; 1/2005, -2692 . . . SA: 4/2004, +337; 4/2005, +292. NSA 4/2004, +1131; 4/2005, +1181). So why are the SA July figures so dramatically different from 2004 to 2005 when the NSA figures are pretty similar -- and especially since the NSA figures for 2005 are worse than 2004?

My second concern: if we're now "cookin' with gas", why is the NSA job total for January through July 2005 (+344,000) actually lower than in 2004 (+358,000)?

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At 8:53 PM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

Gen'l, I noticed that this AM too (NSA July '04 vs '05). The answer has to be in the type of jobs added (the BLS adjusts each category individually to obtain the SA number, they do not adjust the entire number at once).

I suppose we could compare each category vs. last year and find the difference in seasonal factors.

Best Regards!

 
At 10:59 PM, Anonymous cm said...

Let me repost this from the previous thread:

Table A-6, employment by age, tells us these YOY deltas (non-adjusted, July'04 to July'05):

16-17 +0.09
18-19 +0.05
20-24 +0.16
25-34 +0.14
35-44 +0.08
45-54 +0.66
55-?? +1.40 (!)

total +2.58

Taking this at face value, it means in net terms that 54% of net employment growth was in the 55+ age segment, and 80% in the 45+ segment. The 20-45 segment got just 8.5%! Ideas, anybody? Is this where offshoring hits? Experienced-but-not-old-hands-pulling-the-strings positions being outsourced?

 
At 11:04 PM, Anonymous dryfly said...

They aren't cooking with gas, they have their head in the over breathing the gas...

 
At 11:08 PM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

CR,

Thanks for the idea. Here's the first cut, showing the big categories as well as those which show the biggest differences between 2005 and 2004:

July 2005 (NSA)

Goods-producing . . . -2,000
Service-producing . . . -1,199,000
--Retail trade . . . +17,300
--Financial activities . . . +25,000
TOTAL . . . -1,201,000

July 2004 (NSA)

Goods-producing . . . +44,000
Service-producting . . . -1,187,000
--Retail trade . . . -36,600
--Financial activities . . . -5,000
TOTAL . . . -1,143,000

So at first glance the big SA numbers for July 2005 seem to be coming from job growth in retail trade and financial activities.

Gen'l Glut

 
At 11:23 PM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

If the BLS would just publish their adjustment factors, it would be easy to figure out.

My suspicion is the SA employment numbers are reflecting: 1) auto retailers didn't layoff this summer (with the huge discounts) and 2) same with financial activities related to auto sales and 3) the continuing housing boom (impacting RE related and retail jobs).

Its still a good report, but RE related employment increases remain high.

Best Regards.

 
At 11:27 PM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

Further on the above theme, in July 2005 retail trade turned in its biggest one-month SA job growth figure since April 2000.

Strange then that we also heard about how disappointing July was for US retailers. A lot of hires soon to be sloughed off?

 
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