Monday, August 15, 2005

Follow the bouncing ball

Today, let's follow the bouncing ball:

Exhibit 1: foreigners liked US corporate debt in June. They really liked it.
International investors bought a net $71.2 billion Treasury notes, corporate bonds and other securities, compared with $55.8 billion in the previous month. The report reinforced speculation rising interest rates in the U.S. compared with Europe and Japan are increasing demand for dollar-denominated assets.

``This is a large enough number to be a positive surprise,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York. ``We're not only adequately financing our trade deficit, but even a bit more than that. It certainly helps us understand better why the dollar continued on firm footing in June.''
Of the net $79.1bn in domestic securities purchased by foreigners in June, 66% were corporate bonds while just 18% were US treasuries (and 0.1% were equities!).

Exhibit 2: nominal interest rates on US corporate debt in June were low. Extremely low. The average yield on Aaa rated corporate bonds was 4.96%, the lowest level since 1966. On Baa bonds the yield was 5.86%, the second-lowest level since 1967.

Exhibit 3: interest rates are falling or are stable nearly everywhere except the United States. So the best buy continues to be the US despite our low returns. As Bloomberg notes,
The yield difference between U.S. 10-year Treasuries and German bunds with similar maturities is 99 basis points, or 0.99 percentage point. The gap, or spread, reached a five-year high of 104 basis points on July 29.
Exhibit 4: In turn, the dollar is rising. The real broad dollar in June was up nearly 4% over December 2004. Per the real major currencies index, the dollar was up 7.4%. The greenback was even stronger in July and is rising further on the news mentioned in Exhibit 1.

~~~~~

Conclusion 1: The Fed doesn't need to raise rates much further to keep foreigners interested in US debt or keep the dollar up. In fact, higher interest rates are likely to only strengthen the dollar.

Conclusion 2: With a strong dollar and relatively low real interest rates, the US will keep importing like a mad man. What, me save? Popular convention wisdom these days seems to be relying on an end to housing price inflation to produce a renewed interest in personal savings. Yet the US personal savings rate has been plummeting since the mid-1980s. It is going to take the equivalent of moving heaven and earth to get Americans to start saving more than 1-2% of their income.

Conclusion 3: Global imbalances will only grow more and more acute over the rest of 2005.

Conclusion 4:
In 2005Q1 the US current account deficit as a percentage of GDP was -6.4%. CA balance of -7% of GDP, here we come!

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It may be that it will only be the continuing decline in the quality and pay of American jobs that will dent these global imbalances. One major American export that doesn't show up in the current account deficit is good jobs. Bye bye, good jobs.

 
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By pegging the Yuan to a basket instead of the dollar alone, China has given the US the long-sought opportunity to devalue the dollar. By continuing to raise interest rates, the US has refused to take “yes” for an answer. Those who have been unhappy with China’s currency policy should now direct their complaints to the Fed.

 
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Nah ...
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Did you see real wage in july falling ?
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May I remember productivity is still rising in july ?

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