Friday, August 12, 2005

Cutting consumption is the only way

Brad (aka Bob) was right. Calculated Risk was right. Hell, even I was right after further consideration.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total June exports of $106.8 billion and imports of $165.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $58.8 billion, $3.4 billion more than the $55.4 billion in May, revised. June exports were virtually unchanged from May, and June imports were $3.4 billion more than May imports of $162.2 billion.
A trade deficit of $58.8bn racks up the country's third biggest monthly trade deficit of all time, and only $0.16bn short of the #2 slot. The twelve largest monthly deficits have occurred over the last twelve months. No surprise then that the 2005 deficit is currently running 17.9% larger than the 2004 pace, on track for an annual trade deficit of $730bn pushing -6.0% of GDP.

The good news of early 2005 has clearly dissipated like the morning mist. After growing robustly in March and April, US exports have been stagnant in May and June. Imports, on the other hand, continue to soar. June goods imports in particular were up 2.4% in a single month!

As with May, oil has wrought much of the June trade deficit. US petroleum import prices jumped a whopping 7.9% in June, and in tow came a record $19.9bn petroleum import bill. Oil prices contributed about $1.6bn to the month's deficit all on their own. Petroleum imports prices in July were another 6.6% higher than in June, so get ready to test the all-time trade deficit record of $60.1bn next month.

It's not all about oil, of course. Non-petroleum goods imports are up 11.6% on the year while services imports are up 11.4%; the total non-petroleum import bill is up an overall 11.5%. The good news is that US export growth is faster, up 11.7% this year. The bad news is that total non-petroleum imports are 37% larger than total exports, the upshot being that with non-petroleum imports growing 11.5%, total exports would have to grow at a nearly 16% pace just to keep the trade deficit stable. And that's assuming falling oil prices (due to ever-rising petroleum import levels).

There is no way in hell that nominal US exports are going to grow at a 16% annual rate. It hasn't happened since 1988, and it occurred back then thanks to a huge export boom in agricultural products and steep export price inflation. It also happened in 1973-74 and 1978-80 for the very same reasons. This will not happen today. No way. Impossible.

So what is the solution to this conundrum? The same answer I've been giving ever since I began the Globblog. The US must consume less. Much less. There is no other way out.

172 Comments:

At 10:22 AM, Anonymous DF said...

General, what you are saying is not nice. Don't you think the poor chinese workers need jobs ?
If the USA stops consuming who will give this service to all workers of the world ?

 
At 10:26 AM, Anonymous df said...

Lol what I just posted remined me of old writings of a french near marxist, paul lafargue

Anybody read this, especially you general, it's utterly funny.
http://www.marxists.org/archive/lafargue/1883/lazy/ch03.htm

Below is an excerptreplace productive class, by asian workers, and capitalists by US consumers and you understand everything.

"The abstinence to which the productive class condemns itself obliges the capitalists to devote themselves to the over-consumption of the products turned out so riotously by the laborers. At the beginning of capitalist production a century or two ago, the capitalist was a steady man of reasonable and peaceable habits. He contented himself with one wife or thereabouts. He drank only when he was thirsty and ate only when he was hungry. He left to the lords and ladies of the court the noble virtues of debauchery. Today every son of the newly rich makes it incumbent upon himself to cultivate the disease for which quicksilver is a specific in order to justify the labors imposed upon the workmen in quicksilver mines; every capitalist crams himself with capons stuffed with truffles and with the choicest brands of wine in order to encourage the breeders of blooded poultry and the growers of Bordelais. In this occupation the organism rapidly becomes shattered, the hair falls out, the gums shrink away from the teeth, the body becomes deformed, the stomach obtrudes abnormally, respiration becomes difficult, the motions become labored, the joints become stiff, the fingers knotted. Others, too feeble in body to endure the fatigues of debauchery, but endowed with the bump of philanthropic discrimination, dry up their brains over political economy, or juridical philosophy in elaborating thick soporific books to employ the leisure hours of compositors and pressmen. The women of fashion live a life of martyrdom, in trying on and showing off the fairy-like toilets which the seamstresses die in making. They shift like shuttles from morning until night from one gown into another. For hours together they give up their hollow heads to the artists in hair, who at any cost insist on assuaging their passion for the construction of false chignons. Bound in their corsets, pinched in their boots, decollette to make a coal-miner blush, they whirl around the whole night through at their charity balls in order to pick up a few cents for poor people, – sanctified souls!"

 
At 11:14 AM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

Gen'l, good stuff. I expect we will see the deficit continue to grow for the rest of the year (maybe a new record in July with another $2 Billion in oil deficit - a quick calculation).

But next year I think there are reasons the deficit might start to flatten out: the housing market appears to be slowing (leading to less consumer spending) and China really can't grow their exports at this rate much longer (See Dr. Setser's post). Something has to give ... most likely a slowdown in the US.

Best Regards.

 
At 12:50 PM, Blogger la said...

df-good quote. I guess things never change, do they?

 
At 1:27 PM, Blogger David said...

"So what is the solution to this conundrum? The same answer I've been giving ever since I began the Globblog. The US must consume less. Much less. There is no other way out."

We do indeed need to consume less. How about expanding exports more? We still can do this.

 
At 2:42 PM, Anonymous Ralph said...

"The US must consume less. Much less" Who says? The reality is that we are not going to stop consuming until we have to stop. That won't happen until home values stop escalating (this has to happen sometime, right?) and the gov stops running such huge deficits. My guess is that home prices may be near their peak. This means some reduction in spendig and less $ for Japan and China to buy treasuries. The US gov will probably then run even larger deficits (a la highway bill) funded by the fed, as necessary, to keep the ball rolling. Is there an end to this process?

 
At 3:02 PM, Anonymous Movie Guy said...

Consume less of what?

Let's see your list.

 
At 4:13 PM, Anonymous knzn said...

Movie Guy: Consume less of anything. It doesn’t matter what, as long as the Fed finds out that we’re consuming less and adjusts monetary policy appropriately. (Lower rates -> weaker dollar -> smaller trade deficit; see my post to Brad Sester’s blog)

 
At 4:23 PM, Anonymous knzn said...

Of course, the process outlined in my comment above takes time, and the situation can get worse before it gets better. In the short run, it’s clear what we need to consume less of: energy (gasoline in particular). As Brad Setser (sorry for the mis-spelling in the previous comment, Bob) points out, we are already doing this, but we clearly need to do more.

 
At 9:07 PM, Anonymous Tom Marney said...

knzn,

The Fed is pushing a rope. That's why Greenspan is so flummoxed by recent events.

 
At 10:51 AM, Anonymous Michael Cain said...

Consume less of anything. It doesn’t matter what...

I would be concerned about the consequences if the things that we consumed less of were domestically-produced services rather than foreign-produced goods. Speaking anecdotally, things that seem to get cut first when households cut back: eating out, travel, having the house painted, etc. Big ticket items like cars get deferred. The little ticket things like replacing the broken DVD player still happen. Reduced travel would cut back on imported oil somewhat, deferred car purchases would reduce those imports somewhat, but the Wal-Mart type of imports would seem to be largely unaffected.

Is it possible that we have transformed our economy into one where we can have a recession thatt doesn't cut imports by much?

 
At 11:46 AM, Anonymous cm said...

In fact I'd say if there were a way for US exports to grow that much, this way would lead through hell! But I would agree that there is probably no way on earth it can happen ... not as long as the trade partners of the US keep accepting its IOUs ...

 
At 9:38 PM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

It looks like the SA oil component of the deficit for July will be about $1.2 Billion higher than June. That alone should be put the deficit near the SA record of Feb.

I agree with Dr. Setser - we will see record deficits for the rest of this year.

Best Wishes.

 
At 2:59 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Until our bankers pull our credit.

And that is going to happen soon enough. This is all rather funny. All those fancy economists and hot shot pundits, pushing us all off a cliff.

And then there is the war, which, like Nam, is hideously expensive and we are losing. Wasn't the seventies fun?

 
At 7:05 PM, Anonymous Tom Marney said...

"Is it possible that we have transformed our economy into one where we can have a recession that doesn't cut imports by much?"

I think so. Of course, that means that stopping the deterioration in our CA position will require consumption to fall by a great deal more than $58.8 billion a month.

We'll probably find out soon enough.

 
At 11:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the consensus here is that the dollar is to a certain extent overvalued, and that credit terms today are more attractive than they will be in the near future, is not the rational response to borrow and spend every last dollar that one can? If a working individual who has the ability to save also holds the belief that the value of his dollar will decline more rapidly than the interest rate being offered him, isn't he being rational if he overspends instead?

 
At 11:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the consensus here is that the dollar is to a certain extent overvalued, and that credit terms today are more attractive than they will be in the near future, is not the rational response to borrow and spend every last dollar that one can? If a working individual who has the ability to save also holds the belief that the value of his dollar will decline more rapidly than the interest rate being offered him, isn't he being rational if he overspends instead?

 
At 12:45 AM, Anonymous cm said...

anonymous: On very superficial thought, yes. But let me offer you an analogy -- if you had a leaking water cistern where water is dripping out, would it be rational to start drinking/using all you can today, as tomorrow and the day after you may get a smaller total out of it?

Yeah, I know, you said "overspending", not "spending it all" ...

 
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