Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Can you eat your house?

As I mentioned yesterday, the US personal savings rate has reached the Rubicon. In June 2005 we as a country officially saved 0.0% of our disposable (i.e. after-tax) personal income.

The Great Vanishing American Savings Rate has been a long time coming, but the pace has really picked up over the last two years. Since June 2003, real DPI has risen 6.04% while real personal consumption expenditures have gone up 8.27%. So no surprise, really, that our personal savings rate has tanked from a very meager 2.0% down to nothing at all.

All this spells potential danger for the US economy, of which 70.1% (during Q2) is consumer spending -- not far from the all-time high of 70.5% in 2003Q1. No longer can US consumer spending grow faster than US income growth. Or can it?

Freddie Mac tells the story (via CNN/Money):
In the quarter ended June 30, 74 percent of Freddie Mac-owned loans that were refinanced resulted in principal amounts larger by at least 5 percent.

Only 9 percent of refinancings resulted in lower loan amounts.

In other words, nearly three-quarters of homeowners refinancing a $100,000 loan wound up with a loan principal of at least $105,000, usually more...the difference between the size of the old loan and the new loan is being taken out in cash.

In 2003, that was the case only 33 percent of the time. Back then refinancing was rate driven, according to Bob Moultin of Americana Mortgage Group. Homeowners reworked mortgages to take advantage of lower interest rates so they could reduce their monthly bills.

Now they refinance to put cash in their pockets or to pay for big purchases.
Now those in the know tell us that most of this money is being spent on home improvement, thus keeping the loan-to-equity value ratio after refinancing to around 70%. Yet whether it's spending on the house or on a vacation to Disneyworld, the US economy is going to be counting more and more on precisely this kind of equity withdrawl to boost consumer spending.

And thus the American economy becomes ever more dependent on not simply construction, but on the rising value of all homes. As the ultra-easy money vanishes from the mortgage market (1-year ARMs up to 4.46% now from 4.24% just four weeks ago, and the spread between them and the 30-yr. FRM is down to around 130 basis points), values are going to have to rise steadily to entice those who refinanced in 2003-04 to jump into the refi market yet again. Rates on 15-yr. FRMs are up 22 basis points from four weeks ago, and rates on 30-yr. FRMs are up 24 basis points. Even rates on 5-1 hybrid ARMs are up 21 points (with new data out tomorrow).

And the news on refinancing volume isn't good. As rates rise, refi activity expectedly dries up. The Mortgage Bankers Association Refi Index is -24% from just seven weeks ago.

Maybe making new houses and home improvements out of gingerbread is a good strategy going into the future. At least we'll be able to eat them then, because we might very well have to. There won't be any income sources left to buy food.

457 Comments:

At 9:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

But there is no such thing as "saving". There is only lending and investment, no matter whether through buying stocks and bonds, or through depositing money in a bank which makes loans or buys bonds with it. Since the Chinese and Japanese are willing to make everything we need and sell it to us on the easy payment plan, there isn't a lot of need for investment funds here in the US, and the Asians lend us all we need at very attractive rates.

If US citizens suddenly started depositing 8% of their incomes in the banks, what would the banks do with it? To whom would they lend those funds? There is already a glut of capacity in almost every sector of the world economy. With an 8% drop in US consumption, the glut would be even worse.

This is, of course, why the mercantilist exchange rate manipulations of the Asians (first the Japanese, now joined by the Chinese) are so damaging. The worldwide distribution of production capacity and consumption capability has become so perversely distorted that there seems no non-catastrophic way to repair it.

jm

 
At 10:23 PM, Blogger johnny phenothiazine said...

Does this savings figure include IRAs and 401Ks?

 
At 11:36 PM, Anonymous cm said...

anonymous: In fundamental terms, there is still potential for physical infrastructure, "human capital" (education), research (alternative energies, sustainable building and economic processes), or social infrastructure (e.g. comprehensive and high-quality healthcare) investment.

 
At 11:37 PM, Anonymous dryfly said...

If US citizens suddenly started depositing 8% of their incomes in the banks, what would the banks do with it? To whom would they lend those funds? There is already a glut of capacity in almost every sector of the world economy. With an 8% drop in US consumption, the glut would be even worse.

Short answer is 'yes' there are still good investments as long as there are still things worth inventing (don't need to close the patent office yet).

But tax codes & equity market expectations tend to work against the longer time horizons necessary to develop innovative higher margin products that leap frog the cheap low margin 'me-too' offerings out there now. So producers focus on me-too, me-cheaper.

Until that changes savings will be a 'loser'.

 
At 2:45 AM, Anonymous cm said...

dryfly: Yeah, but are there things worth inventing? Worth to whom? There is already a good body of inventions (and more generally developments) out there in various drawers that is not being productized because there is no (paying) demand, or nobody can figure out or convince investors how to make money off of it. And invention is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration, and the latter is what costs most of the money.

 
At 9:24 AM, Blogger David said...

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At 9:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Glut -- nice post. interesting freddie data. the part of the bernanke story that makes sense to me is the savings surplus in emerging economies = high reserves (ok, that is the bit bernanke leaves out) = low rates in US/ Europe = rising home values (at least if the pop. is growing) = home equity extraction = less savings. Mechanisms for all this happening are stronger in the US than in europe. And with lots of capacity (per dry fly) and incremental capacity expansion in china rather than in the Us, there is not much demand for savings from firms (tho that seems to be picking up now), so everything starts hinging on housing ...

Brad S

 
At 12:04 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

I put even more money into savings this month.

HAHAHA.

I must be the only chump left in America or maybe I am part of the ruling class (owning property outright and stocks and bonds!)

Geeze.

Most of the rich don't save, they ship their loot to Switzerland or Caribean no tax islands.

 
At 9:51 PM, Anonymous dryfly said...

dryfly: Yeah, but are there things worth inventing? Worth to whom? There is already a good body of inventions (and more generally developments) out there in various drawers that is not being productized because there is no (paying) demand, or nobody can figure out or convince investors how to make money off of it. And invention is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration, and the latter is what costs most of the money.

Actually right now there isn't a lot of really 'new' out there... there is a ton of 'pretty similar' though. By that I mean a lot of products claiming to be innovative invention that are just extensions or cheap knock offs of existing products. A new flavor of tooth paste or new shade of pantyhose.

BTW - the '1% inspiration & 99% persperation' is complete BS and always was BS - nothing but public relations. Reality is the HARD part is and has always been the inspiration - coming up with really new & unique solutions to problems we often don't even recognize as a problem until AFTER the invention solves it. Once you get there... then the 'persperation' part is like water running down hill... it just happens.

The biggest hurddle holding back 'innovation' & related investment is the status quo... the idea we don't need to fix what isn't broke. Once the $hit hits the fan and the status quo is shaken... look out, there will be so many places to invest we won't know where to put the money.

Irony is many if not most of us won't have any money by then... because the same thing that rocks the status quo also smashes the financial system... that pesky 'creative destruction' Schumpeter kept going on about.

Look for it coming to a neighborhood near you.

 
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The 7(a) Loan Guaranty Program is the SBA's primary small business loan program. A maximum loan amount of $2 million has been established for 7(a) business loans.

Low Documentation Loan (SBALowDoc)

SBALowDoc is the SBA’s quick and easy program that provides a guaranty on small business loans of $150,000 or less. Once you have met your lender’s requirements for credit, the lender may request an SBALowDoc guaranty for up to 85 percent of the loan amount. You complete the front of a one-page SBA application, and the lender completes the back. At SBALowDoc centers, the agency processes completed applications within 36 hours.

SBAExpress

This method makes it easier and faster for lenders to provide small business loans of $250,000 or less. The SBA provides a rapid response through its PLP processing center in Sacramento, Calif.— within 36 hours of receiving the complete application package. Lenders use their own procedures to approve and service the loans.

CommunityExpress

The CommunityExpress pilot program is designed to spur economic development and job creation in untapped rural and inner city communities by providing loans and technical assistance. Loan proceeds may be used for most business purposes, including start-up, expansion, equipment purchases, working capital, inventory or real-estate acquisitions.
To be eligible for CommunityExpress, current or prospective small businesses must be located in low- and moderate-income urban and rural areas.

While CommunityExpress is similar to SBAExpress, here are some differences:

• CommunityExpress focuses on predesignated geographic areas that primarily low- and moderate-income urban and rural areas.

• The maximum loan amount under CommunityExpress is $250,000.

• CommunityExpress lenders, together with the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, provide hands-on technical training and support, both before and after loan closings, through community-based, nonprofit NCRC member organizations.

7(m) Microloan Program

The SBA’s Microloan Program provides very small loans up to $35,000 to small businesses and not-for-profit child-care centers through a network of locally based intermediary lenders. In addition to making the loans, the intermediaries provide management and technical assistance to microborrowers and potential microborrowers.

What can I use the loan proceeds for?

You can use an SBA small business loan to:

• expand or renovate facilities;
• purchase machinery, equipment, fixtures and leasehold improvements;
• finance receivables and augment working capital;
• refinance existing debt (with compelling reason);
• finance seasonal lines of credit;
• construct commercial buildings; and/or
• purchase land or buildings.

How do I repay the loan?

The length of time for repayment depends on the use of the loan proceeds and the ability of your small business to repay the loan.The term is usually 5 to 10 years for working capital, and up to 25 years for fixed assets such as the purchase or major renovation of real estate or purchase of equipment. There are no balloon payments, prepayment penalties, application fees or points permitted with these small business loans. Repayment plans may be tailored to each individual small business.

How do I get started?

You submit a business loan application to a lender for initial review. If the lender approves the business loan subject to an SBA guaranty, a copy of the loan application and a credit analysis are forwarded by the lender to the nearest SBA office. After SBA approval, the lending institution closes the business loan and disburses the funds; you make monthly loan payments directly to the lender. As with any loan, you are responsible for repaying the full amount of the loan. Visit **www.SBASmallBusinessLoans.com** for more info.

 
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