Thursday, August 11, 2005

Buy, buy, buy!

Despite the fact that the personal savings rate in June 2005 hit 0.0%, Americans have decided to buy yet more things in July.
U.S. retail sales surged 1.8 percent last month as buyer incentives led to the biggest gain in auto sales since just after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, when carmakers flying the flag put in place zero percent financing deals, a government report showed on Thursday.

July's retail-sales jump followed a similarly healthy 1.7 percent rise in June, the Commerce Department said. However, the increase fell short of Wall Street forecasts for a 2.2 percent gain.

Auto sales shot up 6.7 percent, their sharpest rise since October 2001, as Ford and DaimlerChrysler joined General Motors in extending employee discounts to all consumers.
Of course, this big increase is fueled mainly by auto sales which are purchased mainly on credit. The methodology of the Commerce Department tallies the full purchase price in its computation of personal consumption expenditures on the month (even though these cars will be paid off over years), and thus we are almost certain to see a negative personal savings rate for July. You heard it here first.

The retail and food services sector has recovered nicely from its brief hiccup in May. Since then, total sales are up an annualized 21% -- twice the pace of the last twelve months (all data is nominal and seasonally-adjusted). This is all about cars, however. Total retail and food service sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers is up only 7.0% annualized since May and up 8.1% since July 2004. Over the last six months, non-auto related sales are up 7.5% annualized. I think you all can see the declining trend here.

Especially interesting is sales by housing related sectors. Furniture and home furnishing stores saw sales change -1.3% for the month; building materials, garden equipment and supply dealers had sales -0.4%. Over the last three months, furniture and home furnishings sales are up 2.7% annualized while building materials et al. is up an annualized 0.8%.

Are those rising interest rates finally pulling the plug on housing?

383 Comments:

At 3:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excluding autos retail sales rose about $828,000 but $727,000 of this was service stations. so it does not look that good. But one months numbers do not make a trend.

The interesting thing was the data in the gdp report that shows personal consumption expenditures on energy are showing littlee or no signs of weakening.

 
At 7:50 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

When car sales are included as part of retail sales - is the entire sales price of the car in the statistics, even though it is financed over 24 - 60 months? Even if it is financed at 0% interest? Even if they are sold at employee discounts?

 
At 7:51 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

Sorry GG - missed your comments in your second paragraph.

 
At 11:16 PM, Anonymous cm said...

I suppose those numbers are in nominal dollars, not units, right?

May we in that case not in part just observe price inflation?

What I have seen of grocery prices for the year, 7-8% growth strikes me a bit at the high end, but not outlandish.

 
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The wage-productivity gap has increased another 5.5% this year. While inflation-adjusted wages have declined 0.5% since January, productivity has increased 5.0% over the same period of time. The BLS links for this are:
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The bursting of the housing bubble will eliminate much home equity loan-financed spending, as well as much of the wage-financed consumer spending of those employed in the housing industry.

The housing bubble has delayed the economic day of reckoning, but it has worsened the effects of the ultimate fall.

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