Friday, August 19, 2005

Another inflation post

So why is general inflation so low when energy prices are so high? I suggested in passing on Tuesday that
there aint nothin' gonna stop us 'Mericans from buyin' our gas. Those skyrocketing gas prices might stop us from buying everything else, however.
It seems that Wal-Mart has the same inkling as well as a couple of corporate economists.
"Unlike the past when oil had a huge inflationary impact, this time its inflationary impact is very small and it may have a somewhat deflationary impact," [Nariman Behravesh, chief global economist at Global Insight] said.
Consider the below chart of annual CPI and PPI inflation rates on consumer goods since 1997 (the East Asian financial crisis). Until 2003, wholesale and retail inflation on such products was roughly the same and moved in tandem. Throughout 2003, however, producer inflation far outstripped consumer inflation as the CPI on commodities flirted with deflation. Over the last 18 months, CPI and PPI have again moved together, but PPI continues to exceed CPI, especially during disinflationary periods. The conclusion? Since early 2003 price pressures on producers of finished goods has been much higher than on their consumers.



Moreover, from January 2003 to June 2005, real wages and salaries (SA, deflated by the PCE price index) have risen 7.9% and real disposable personal income is up 7.8% while real consumption has risen 9.4% and real consumer goods (incl. autos) imports (SA, again using the PCE deflator) are up a whopping 16.1%. Debt and dissaving -- not income -- has kept US consumption high over the past years, while cheap goods imports and the overall 'Wal-Mart effect' have helped keep core inflation well in check.

I wonder, in fact, if contined Fed tightening combined with a drop in oil prices -- say to the low $50s/barrel -- might shake what little general inflation exists right now completely out of the economy.

533 Comments:

At 1:46 PM, Blogger mkb752 said...

It is probably a matter of semantics, but as I recall from stone age econ 101, inflation is a debasement of a currency. Is there any evidence of monetary debasement? I think the General is right on about deflation. The higher costs experienced in some sectors of the economy are probably best explained as price increases rather than inflation.

 
At 7:01 PM, Anonymous Tom Marney said...

I think it'd be helpful if the English language included discrete terms for different varieties of inflation.

 
At 9:12 PM, Anonymous cm said...

mkb752: Debasement is defined (in historical context, and referring to currency, anyway) as diminishing the precious metal content/equivalent of the currency unit. That's a concept not applicable to modern-day paper currencies. The best "value" measures you can make of a fiat currency is its purchasing power in terms of goods/services baskets. Hence (consumer) price inflation is tantamount to debasement very much indeed.

 
At 11:17 PM, Blogger dryfly said...

I think it'd be helpful if the English language included discrete terms for different varieties of inflation.

Makes sense... after all the Innuit are said to have a dozen discrete names for different varieties of snow...

 
At 10:29 AM, Blogger mkb752 said...

Well said CM. Rather than semantics, it may simply be a more up to date description of the phenomena used to represent purchasing power.
I wonder if the availibility of relatively cheap and easy credit is masking deflationary pressures?
If consumer credit were not so acceptable and, more importantly accessable, I believe prices on many goods and services would have to decrease as demand would be stunted. The General seems to be one of the few addressing the lurking deflation threat.

 
At 11:46 AM, Blogger gillies said...

a greater proportion of consumer spending must now be discretionary than at any earlier historical period. if a wage earner uses the car to go to work, a rise in the oil price is inflationary. if a family uses the car for leisure pursuits, a rise in the oil price at first just extends their use of credit, then if it continues causes the car to be used less, reducing the inflationary pressure on oil.

a worrying time may be coming for people who market stuff other people can do without. food price rises can mean hunger, but starting from a more prosperous base they can mean simply people getting leaner and healthier. inability to pay the mortgage used to mean struggling to hold on to your home, for many it will now mean being a willing seller of your second home.

i am suggesting unprecedented elasticity of demand in many consumer sectors.

 
At 11:57 AM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Collapsing "demand" isn't the right term. People in depressions do without necessities. They would happily demand these things but can't.

Either money inflates to meet rising prices or people stop commerce. One causes currency problems the other kills humans.

 
At 12:31 PM, Anonymous cm said...

gillies: Food (over)consumption is not just a matter of volume. Given that there is roughly a negative correlation between cheapness of a food item and its nutritional value (as opposed to calorie content), when skimping on food expenses, one may expect that while people will eat less in volume, they will eat less healthy stuff and more junk in proportion.

Even today, most obese people are not those who (as Elaine would say) "pig out" on too much of healthy food.

Likewise empirical evidence suggests that people will give up necessities in favor of sticking to alocohol & tobacco.

 
At 12:50 PM, Blogger mkb752 said...

Gilles: In theory I believe your analysis. The problem as I see it, however, is the assumption of a more prosperous base. I'm afraid the more prosperous base is actually an illusion brought on by debt. As long as the credit spigot is flowing the "prosperity" may continue. If it stops many people will be in trouble. Although I don't know the numbers, I would be surprised if more than 1 or 2 people in 10 own a second home. Their "elasticity" would be dubious at best, and is doubtful they would be able to sustain or prop up a falling economy. More importantly, what happens to the vast majority of people who do not have the ability to be as adaptable as those fortunate enough to enjoy such elasticity.

 
At 1:14 PM, Blogger dryfly said...

You all are right on about food nutrition & prosperity relationship... There is no food source as cheap or as unhealthy as bulk processed starches, sugars & fats... and I know, I spent years working as a process engineer for the 'Supermarket to the World'... If people are eating anything - that will be it.

BTW - if the ingredients of junk food is so cheap why does it cost so much? Marketing... modern junk food companies spend FAR more on marketing than processing... and of course it shows.

On the positive side, the one thing a 'recession' might do is prompt people to walk more... and that of course would be healthy.

But I'd have to see it happen before I'd believe it.

 
At 9:25 PM, Anonymous cm said...

dryfly: Walking is only healthy when you don't walk distances on the side of roads with substantial traffic. That's the primary reason I tried walking to work or to farther away stores only once. I don't mind walking over a mile, but the exhaust fumes ...

 
At 9:24 AM, Anonymous Tom Marney said...

Back in my activist days I remember seeing a graph on the increase in car travel per capita in metro Atlanta in the '80's and '90's. It was the classic bell curve shape: gently rising at first, then taking off like a rocket for whatever compelling reason, then flattening as it approached the limits of human tolerance. A while later I saw a graph of the incidence of obesity in metro Atlanta. It had the same shape! IIRC, there was a couple of years' lag; it apparently takes about that long for sitting on our asses in our cars to turn into sitting on our fat asses in our cars.

 
At 10:25 AM, Blogger dryfly said...

dryfly: Walking is only healthy when you don't walk distances on the side of roads with substantial traffic. That's the primary reason I tried walking to work or to farther away stores only once. I don't mind walking over a mile, but the exhaust fumes ...

I hear ya... I travel for business and get stuck in hotels on the edge of town... near truck stops... walking for exercise is right up there with smoking a pack of cigs as far a healthy goes.

The 'good news' is that if gas prices keep going up... walking will get a whole lot healthier...

;)

 
At 12:00 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

Again, another example of how CPI measures wage inflation vs. price inflation. Yes, producers can absorb PPI, as we see that corporate profits continue to demostrate health.

History does not repeat itself exactly, we have a complete fiat currency (unlike the 30s) and an economy based on a perversion on Kenyes theory - credit driving consumer spending, government spending driving corporate growth. The "deflation" or whatever we experience will be unique.

Hence (consumer) price inflation is tantamount to debasement very much indeed.

I would disagree - remember there are two economies - the productive economy (businesses/individuals/government services) where goods/services are created/traded and the financial economy (banking/brokerage/government fed) where wealth is redistributed. The currency is a means to an end - it depends in which economy you function. The CPI has been shifted to measure what the financial economy is interested in. The rest of us can go bugger off.

 
At 12:23 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

BTW - does anyone know (I'm too lazy on Sun to check), how consumer interest payments calculate into the CPI? How will rising interest rates affect the CPI?

 
At 12:34 PM, Anonymous cm said...

pebird: I don't see how you disagree with my thesis, except for the "consumer" part (and I put that in parentheses, and it's there to begin with as the article is chiefly about CPI).

In the end, what economic metrics are useful for you (or what you should consider "goal metrics") depends on your philosphical stance about the purpose of the economy. There is no value-free absolute concept of utility.

When taking the position that the purpose of economic activity is the creation of aggregate (not "average"!) wealth and provision of aggregate living standards, then the metrics that count are those that relate to "real" consumable goods and services.

 
At 2:39 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

cm:

My thinking is that in a fiat currency velocity is much more important than the value of a currency unit. CPI is low, therefore debasement is low? Certainly not - now you can argue that CPI doesn't accurately reflect purchasing power - certainly it only reflects the purchasing power for consumables, not assets / wealth-generating instruments. What we have witnessed it the debasement of the currency while CPI has remained low - you can buy enough to survive, but forget about getting ahead.

 
At 3:35 AM, Anonymous DF said...

On an aside, when the world wide credit bubble explode, what do you expect will be the impact on the relative prices of the world currencies ?
One could think, that the bigger the amount of bad debt accumulated, the bigger the deflation, the more the currency should rise relative to others.
I would rank bad inner debt amounts this way : China, USA, Europe

Of course external debt works another way ;
USA, Europe, China.

 
At 10:33 AM, Anonymous peBird said...

Relative prices between each of the currencies? Relative price to commodities? To gold? To oil? Remember that a debt is a social obligation - there will be painful renegotiation and it will be a political process. Prior explosions (87 crash, 97 Asian mini-crash, 80s home loans, Long Term Capital) have all been managed and effects deferred. If there is truly a world-wide crash it will be unique in historical character and relative values may be the least of our worries.

 
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