Monday, July 11, 2005

Yes, the job market really is weak

A small debate has ensued between James Hamilton of Econbrowser and Pro-Growth Liberal of AngryBear over the interpretation of recent employment data, with the central dispute over whether current employment levels are 'good enough'. Rather than wrestling over the distorting effects of teenage employment or the question of whether a return to the total employment levels of 2000 is either realistic or desirable, I suggest focusing in on a group of workers who over time are almost always in need of work, who do not wax and wane with educational or retirement opportunities, nor with social trends toward greater workforce participation rates: men age 25-64.

The below graph shows the quarterly employment-to-population ratio without seasonal adjustment for men age 25-64, from 1977:I to 2005:II. As you can clearly see, at the peak of the last two economic cycles the ratio topped out in the 85.5-86.0 range. Currently the level is just 83.2, right where it was three years ago and nowhere close to the levels of the late 1990s.



Perhaps more distressingly, today's EP ratio is still below the 4-quarter moving average trough of the mid-1990s and around the levels of the early-1980s trough (save the disaster of 1983:I). The chart also shows that the late 1990s was hardly an anomaly in terms of employment for "working age" men. In fact, the late 1990s saw a slightly lower peak than the late 1980s did.

I think there's no doubt about it: this job "recovery" needs a recovery of its own.

518 Comments:

At 3:27 PM, Blogger PGL said...

James said you were glum and I was angry. But we had a similar reaction to his chart of the teenagers. I did all 25+ and you did the males only. Let's hope the woman's libbers don't take offense. Cheers - PGL

 
At 3:49 PM, Blogger Nathan Kaufman said...

Where did you get the data?

 
At 4:20 PM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

Nathan,

The Current Population Survey.

GG

 
At 6:30 PM, Blogger Nathan Kaufman said...

future fed interest rate moves will be interesting.

do you think the curve in you blog will keep going up (to 85 or 86) if interest rates keep going up at a measured rate?

 
At 11:24 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Agreed that the recovery looks limp with that graph. And still no recognition of the kind/quality of jobs that are being displaced:
manufacturing and management/technical jobs that are required to run those plants.
And being displaced by largely residential construction jobs and those dependent on a robust housing market; jobs that are light on skill, training/education and transferablity.

 
At 3:00 AM, Anonymous Df said...

The picture is very clear.
The question is why THEY do not get it.

Those marxists may be right. Those capitalists are suicidal, they know a raise in hiring and wages is the only way for them to expand sales and get returns on their capital, still they will never support such a move, and so they collectively create the present overaccumulation crisis.

 
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At 11:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The thing that really bothers me is above all this - say Hamilton is completely, 100% correct, it still scares me.

The data he's so happy about, well I'd be happy about it too if the prime rate had been at 4%+ all these years, if the government hadn't gone on a Keynesian binge of stunning proportions, if everybody wasn't developing land and importing everything else, if we didn't have a war to suck up a lot of people who would otherwise need jobs in the domestic economy.

If I get BALCO labs to set me up with their chemical enhancement program, I expect to bench 400+ lbs. If I bench 300, well that's pretty good only if I get there naturally. Otherwise I clearly have a problem.

The fact that PGL and GG here puts forth good arguments that things aren't so rosy, well that's really terrifying.

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I just wanted to thank - you for leaving your comments turned on for your post called this post. I'm always searching and keeping an eye out for more blogs and sites about ebook quality resale rights .
Pardon my bad typing! LOL - (:--).

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Ooops, this post is a bit more than planned,
Well,
Keep your (:--) UP anyhow and God Bless ya!
Chad.

 
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