Friday, July 01, 2005

UK as harbinger for US economy

All signs are that the Bank of England is beginning to rue its August 2004 interest rate hike. That final round of tightening took the repo rate to 4.75%. Since that time, UK home price inflation has fallen from 18.9% to 4.1%; home sales fell from a seasonally-adjusted 96,000 per month to 53,000; mortgage equity withdrawl fell from £11.3bn a quarter to under £7bn (2005:I data to be released on July 8); retail sales volume peaked the following month and has not recovered, with June turning in the worst monthly showing in 22 years; and GDP growth has fallen precipitously from a 3.1% annual growth rate to 2.1% today.

The heavy dependence of the UK economy on housing and its salutary effects on retail sales is only heightened in the US. Thus I have to agree with Paul Kasriel today when he argues that the Fed is going to be stopping rate hikes sooner rather than later -- regardless of what the Greenspanspeak is.
The Fed does not want to risk a rapid deflation of the housing bubble at this juncture. If the housing bubble were to burst in the next year, it would have the potential of precipitating a serious recession. As my colleague, Asha Bangalore, reported, housing-related employment has accounted for 43% of the increase in private nonfarm payrolls since this recovery/expansion got started. So, a sharp fall off in housing activity could have a significant negative impact on employment growth. Because households have been extracting large amounts of equity from their homes -- $324 billion in 2004 - to maintain their high levels of consumer spending relative to their after-tax incomes, a bursting of the housing bubble would also have an indirect negative impact on consumer spending inasmuch as "tappable" home equity would rise more slowly. Last, but by no means least, the bursting of the housing bubble could cripple the banking system in that over 60% of commercial bank loans and investments are mortgage related - mortgages, mortgage backed securities, home equity loans and the liabilities of government sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Note as well that while disposable household(UK)/personal(US) income has growth at a very similar rate in both countries over the past five years -- 24.2% in the UK, 26.7% in the US (nominal) -- British residents have managed to save 4-7% of that income every quarter. Americans have saved 1-3.5% of their income every quarter.

And don't forget that as the Fed raises rates, everybody else is cutting or contemplating cutting. Higher US rates merely encourage more of the capital glut to flow into US securities, pushing up the dollar further and exacerbating the current account deficit. With so many export-dependent economies in the world today, they'll only be too happy to plow even more investment capital (secured through ultra-cheap loans) into their tradable sectors and sell to Americans with their stronger currency.

The American economy is riding an asset wave, and the Fed will do what it can to keep it from crashing down on the reckless surfers riding it. One hopes the Fed is also thinking a CA deficit of 7% of GDP is too big for comfort. I'm bold enough to make a prediction: the Fed takes a breather at 3.50%.

472 Comments:

At 10:59 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Just made a UK note on your other thread before this one appeared, giving me the impression that I am over-trained. Kasriel posts so infrequently I would not have caught this one for another week, so thanks for that.
This is the 3rd consecutive month that construction spending has fallen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050701/economy.html?.v=4

Hard to ignore those results at this time of the year.

With the new 3.25% rate, did the mortgage money get a similar 25bp lift? Not yet, but of course the pundits are all for describing a 9bp increase as "signs of reality" creeping back in.
The squeeze is getting easier to read now: either the marginal house buyers take the plunge now, while mortgage money hovers at 4%, pushing real estate prices (and the Fed's interest rates) even higher, or wait, maybe forever at a cost of financing others (not just the landlord).

But can I keep my mind on this housing market, even with a vanishing spread on the horizon? No, I am totally spooked by the thought that Bush is going to proceed with the privatization of SS, especially now that he knows it has little public support. Where is his economic counsel to balance Rove?

 
At 11:52 AM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

Glut, you make a cogent argument (as does Kasriel), but I will take the FED at their word. I believe we will see another 25 bps at each of the next two meetings (Aug and Sep). I believe the FED will pause only if the economy is clearly slowing.

Best Regards!

 
At 1:09 PM, Anonymous Periodista Miguel said...

I'm with Señor Risk on this one. Given how hard they have worked at transparency (not that they have succeeded!!) I think they'd feel obligated to warn the markets.

Yes, of course, they can still change their minds. But I think the statement was indeed what they intend. Until you get a few weeks of Very Clear Warnings from Fed speeches, I think you can still expect rate increases next two times out...

 
At 1:12 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Like all capitalist cycles, when the creative part of the cycle ends, they try to keep it going via debt instruments. As they fill all possible forms of debts, then desperation sets in and ingenious debt systems that are woefully unstable and destabilizing are set up just to keep the sending going while production keeps filling needs less and less.

For example, this cycle, we don't need more suburbs or SUVs but since we are set up to produce mostly these, they have to be sold no matter what so the zero percent options arise and all goes to hell...

 
At 1:14 PM, Anonymous periodista miguel said...

I should add that I am very hesitant to say that Paul Kasriel is wrong. At least I should be -- he is VERY good. And he makes a good case -- but I am convinced that when the Fed agrees they will start giving us pretty strong signs of it.

Now, that may raise other questions (are they missing what Kasriel can see? do they have another agenda?). But I think this is their M.O. now: warn, then shoot.

 
At 5:03 PM, Blogger calmo said...

So that's pretty much unanimous: crest at 3.5% although Kasriel gives himself a little more room to the downside thinking it could be 3.25%.
And now we wait to see what happens with the 10yr rates? Do they bounce up 25bp and give those HFs something to work with or do they sit tight and allow the housing market to continue? Gross thinks it could come down to 3.5% --AG's worst fear, I think.
And then we watch and wait for the crest in house prices? That crest is closer than we think although higher interest rates will advance it, no?
Will it be a stall, dip, dive or crash?
A return to normalcy would be nice. More money in more hands making decisions that benefit more people than just a privileged few.
I'm ready.

 
At 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you, Calmo.

Jennifer

 
At 8:31 PM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

calmo, its far from unanimous. I don't think the FED will stop at 3.5%. In fact I think the next two rate hikes are pretty much in the bag.

I believe the FED will signal a possible pause well in advance of pausing. This FED statement was very bullish on the economy.

Best Regards!

 
At 1:37 AM, Anonymous DF said...

Once the fed moves rates down everybody will understand that growth is not self sustainable. I think panic will result.
The fed will not be able to lower rates and not simultaneously raise fears of inflation in good prices and asset prices.
Those fears are dangerous in themselves.

 
At 10:59 AM, Blogger calmo said...

df thinks the reversal of the interest rates might generate some panic in the hoi polloi.
The 4.75% UK interest rate for more than a year while the current EU rate is 2%, while the economy shoulders a housing stall, while the retail sector has reached new lows...it *is* hard to believe the BOE has not lowered the interest rates.
Not yet. And perhaps those bankers feel the way df feels about it: not merely loss of face (~should have stopped at 4%) but perhaps an admission that "growth is not self sustainable", (~the economy can not sustain this tightening).
The UK made it clear that they were going to put the clamps down on housing and they have. (And the rest of the economy may be about to implode .)
The US policy never had that particular focus, and even now with the idea of a housing bubble in full bloom, this is not the US focus. Hard to view this difference as anything other than some serious US dishonesty/denial.
So I think df and the US bankers "... think panic will result." But the media both here and in the UK have demonstrated impressive crowd control.

 
At 12:14 PM, Blogger stan said...

Obviously correct...
The market in Great Britain.. i.e. Short Sterling futures is already pricing in the next ease from the BOE.. the curve has inverted there...a precursor perhaps to what is almost about to happen here..

No body including the FED cares about whether they go again in August, or even September.. that's just about fully priced into the marketplace..

The only question (conundrum?) is when they are going to stop.. and if like Great Britain the next shoe to fall will be an ease?

Given any probability that we follow in the same footsteps and of course at the very least the yield curve should be entirely "flat"

Essentially a "bimodal" expectation between continued tightening and possible easing going forward...

 
At 2:18 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Thanks for bringing us (ok only me) up todate with the Sterling futures and the UK inverted yield curve, Stan. IIRC, the US futures priced in 4.5% by year-end 6(?) months ago and so those bets are not as solid as they seem.
I'm not sure how closely the Fed watches the UK, but I suspect their housing picture is an item as prominent as crude oil prices.
My feeling is that Greenspan, the brains of the economic outfit in the same way that Rove is the political brains of the political outfit, is genuinely worried about the housing market and the delicate job of getting it under control without snuffing out the rest of the economy. Raising the interest rates 25bp at a time and hoping the housing industry gradually falls back in line, so far is not happening.
From your remarks, we can't be far from a retracing of the UK interest rates.

 
At 5:57 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Interest rates no longer attract savings.

This is OK since we are stealing the savings of others and wasting it. Just like we shipped our inflation and pollution overseas.

This ain't working in the long run, though. Very bad.

 
At 5:57 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Interest rates have to rise because we are addicted to running a budget deficit, too, by the way.

 
At 3:49 AM, Anonymous DF said...

The real indicator will be : Do british cuts stop the housing price cuts.

I fear they will not, and I fear the central bankers fear they will not.
In fact I fear they fear a return to the bubble days as much as a crash.
So the only hypothesis would be fine tune an endless high plateau in housing prices...

Anyone believing in this ?
I guess once prices stop rising they can only fall, because only the constant rise and expectations of future rise fueled the rise.

So I think the message from UK is pretty clear :
Don't believe any message about structural strengths !
You believed in japan's wonderful team spirit ?
You believed in the new economy of knowledged ?
You believe in asian miracle ?
You believed in USA and British flexible labor markets ?
You believed in the danish miracle ?
You believed in the chinese Communist party miraculous leadership ?
Well you got it wrong 6 times. THese are just byproducts of 6 asset bubbles. Once the asset bubble exploded in japan, in tech stocks, in asia 97 ... Came the crash.. And this despite all suppposed structural strengths ...

THe british and US fall will end the dreams of all the proponents of free deregulated labor markets.
The only less of some 40 years will be : regulate your asset markets, regulate finance, never allow this to happen anymore. 40 years later everybody will have forgotten.


lowering rates will be prooving that growth is not sustainable and will not be efficient.
The only wise action now from central bankers would be monetising deficits and raising short term rates, thus destroying privately created money and replacing it with public one, engineering a crisis in order now, instead of facing an unprepared crash later.
I feel they won't do this.

 
At 3:52 AM, Anonymous df said...

I meant :
"the only message that will be left for the oncoming 40 years" and not the only less.

 
At 9:27 AM, Blogger calmo said...

df's
"The only wise action now from central bankers would be monetising deficits and raising short term rates, thus destroying privately created money and replacing it with public one, engineering a crisis in order now, instead of facing an unprepared crash later"

has me mulling over private/public.

(And not "montetising deficits" which is far beyond my feeble capabilities)

PrudentBear's Noland has a weekly catalog of national debt issues and I never see df's trail there. Likewise any other private individual getting ~$100M for the year. Not that some individuals don't get their wad (sure, not the entire $100M) with these announcements (think about the M&A lately and the payouts to the corporate executives --these are not paultry executions), but it is never announced. Never transparent. When df (re)finances for his house, this is public. He agrees to pay 3.5% for 2yrs and takes a generous cash-out like nearly everybody else. This is common, public and transparent.
The debt issuance is different. Convoluted, particularly private, opague and not nearly so well regulated. The corporations, not merely the HFs, have had unprecedented access to cheap money that has finally inched up to 3.25%, closing in on the public housing mortgage rates.
Hard to believe the debt issuance will continue at the same rates as the housing mortgages. [yield invertion worries] OTOH, if you can arrange a merger and stuff a few (in some cases more than a few) Million into your pocket, this corporate practice, corruption, and access to money, may well continue despite these higher rates.

 
At 4:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Calmo, please not that being french, my english somewhat is not as clear as I would it to be.

By public money I meant money created by public institution, money that has legal tender, is endorsed by the national army. Bills and coins and federal cash lent to private banks is of this kind.

By private money, I mean money created by private banks and the money markets, people who lend money to other people and in so doing create money. .

 
At 2:17 AM, Anonymous DF said...

the last post was from me, DF

 
At 5:24 AM, Blogger calmo said...

The whole world is multi-lingual, not just cm. This is why I am sinking and not ascending in this blogging business. Not enough languages. Certainly I don't want to torture df with my French.
I confess to understanding little of your distinction between public/private df. The army endorses legal tender, (this is public money) and the banks cook up their own to make good on their loans to clients (this is private money)?
I like mine way better, but wouldn't have got there without your steer no matter how bizarre it now strikes me on your explication.
Bizarre could still be right --I may just be a bit slow warming up to it.

 
At 4:17 PM, Anonymous DF said...

You got my distinction calmo.
When money is created by the central bank, the profit goes into the pockets of the government (legal price less the cost of the printing press and delivery etc.), when money is created by banks and credit markets, the profit goes into private pockets.
SO when 50 % of the money used was public money in 1950 and now 5% of it is public money (bills and coins and central bank money lent to banks)... Well a all lot of private agents are now making profit out of money creation instead of the government.

 
At 4:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

BTW
monetisation of public deficits is when the central banks simply buys the government bonds. For instance the government says Gee I need to pay the bill of all those teachers, and the central banks says, OK I lend you the money, at 3% rate. THe money I've lent you I just create it. And the profit I make on the money I lent you (the 3% rate) I give you back because you own 100% of my capital.
That's monetisation of public deficits. That's a pretty cool way to finance government spending. In normal times using it instantly creates inflation though.

 
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