Wednesday, July 13, 2005

The trade report oil wrought

May's trade figures show the third largest trade monthly deficit on record with China, but a big drop in petroleum imports (by value, not by volume!) helped shrink the May trade deficit to its second smallest size this year. Hey, every little bit helps.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total May exports of $106.9 billion and imports of $162.2 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $55.3 billion, $1.6 billion less than the $56.9 billion in April, revised. May exports were $0.2 billion more than April exports of $106.7 billion. May imports were $1.4 billion less than April imports of $163.6 billion.
Per the Commerce Department's summary, the $1.55bn reduction in the deficit was due almost solely to a reduction in the goods deficit, that in turn due almost solely to the $1.61bn reduction in goods imports, and that in turn thanks overwhelmingly to a $1.31bn fall in petroleum imports.

The NSA figures show that US energy-related petroleum products imports in May increased 8.0 million barrels, but thanks to prices being $1.68 per barrel lower, the total value of ERPP imports decreased $333 million.

Thus far in 2005, US non-petroleum goods imports (SA) are growing 12.2% while total exports are growing 11.4%. Cheaper petroleum prices can help matters, but the fundamental problem of the US trade deficit is that the US simply imports too much stuff. Goods imports from China (NSA) hit $19.1bn in May, the highest level this year and the third highest montly total ever. On the other hand, imports from Japan -- the country with which the US runs its second largest goods deficit -- were at their second lowest level of the year and imports from Canada are also trending down from their March peak.

There continues to be problems with the EU as well. Imports from the EU in May hit $26.6bn and the monthly goods trade balance came in at -$10.5bn, the largest of the year. This is nothing compared to the -$15.8bn May balance with China, yet the sluggish EU economies are nearly as big a contributor to the US trade deficit as is overproducing/underconsuming China.

One final note: June delivery contracts for petroleum on the NYMEX were much higher than for May delivery three months out, but were actually lower one month out. Thus we probably won't see a big oil import bill in the June trade report either; but take cover when the July and August figures are released!

258 Comments:

At 9:16 AM, Anonymous Jim said...

Regarding China vs. EU exports to U.S., what are their respective imports from the U.S?

I suspect EU still imports lots of U.S. stuff, they are just a bit slow-growing.

China on the other hand is in no way slow-growing, however, their people aren't being allowing to participate fully in their own productiveness. Instead the authoritarian government attempts to save a considerable portion of it to pursue mercantilist policy goals.

 
At 9:49 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Good note of the difference between dollar measure and volume of that oil which makes these results a little more palatable.
What of the fact that the dollar has lost 3% against the other major currencies recently? We saw a strong dollar up until about the end of May (later?) allowing us to buy more imports for the same dollar. (previous monthly numbers should be higher since dollar unit was bloated?)

If currency adjustments are not present in these trade numbers on a monthly basis, how accurate are these stats?

 
At 12:03 PM, Anonymous chad said...

we'll never have a trade surplus again glut. you're always the first to post the trade numbers, but you never look at markets. look at the dollar glut! Its been rallying all year long. Seems you need to do some indoctrinating in the forex pits. your my kind of 2 bit economist. who cares what's really happening, lets talk about what should happen.

keep up the good work glut.

 
At 12:12 PM, Anonymous chad said...

also, whats up with no comments on the budget deficit? oh yeah, laffer was right - that explains your silence.

 
At 12:15 PM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

Well, chad, I'm neither a trader nor a professional economist. I'm not writing this blog so inform people how to take advantage of "the market" or focus on the froth of the day, but to expose the deeper mechanisms of the global economy. I'm interested in the longue durée much more than temporary market fluctuations.

The trade deficit is what's "really" happening.

 
At 12:18 PM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

chad,

Re the deficit: Read this and then get back to me.

Gen'l Glut

 
At 2:14 PM, Blogger fatbear said...

notre Général -

The oil problem won't go away - it's changing the secular base of the trade deficit numbers for the rest of the year, at the very least. Now that Thunder Horse (and its 250Kbd) are listing heavily, that's another half-a-bil per month in oil imports later in the year. In other areas, I do not see the Snowjob vaunted return to US competitiveness, no matter what Chad says. The markets are now a committee of blind men describing an elepant.

As for how deeply we are in do-do, take a look at the details on Thunder Horse - notice that it was fabricated in Korea and that the Dutch rebuilt the world's largest carrier to get it to Texas - not much American engineering spending there, except for HAL buying the Euro design firm. Oh yeah, and a couple US subcontractors....

So, Chad, what is it we're now supposed to be selling to the rest of the world? And, btw, the $ has plunged since last week, but I guess you forgot that....

 
At 3:09 PM, Anonymous chad said...

well glut - thanks for responding. i checked mr. tice and percapita version of the stagnation in federal revenues. it seems that calculated risk, and rich, answer the question. (all found in the comments section)

rich states that the real tax cuts were signed into law in may of 03 and the FY ending in sept. calculated risk shows nominal revenues falling - bottoming in 03 and rising on in 04.

uh fatbear - we are selling stuff to the rest of the world - U.S. Treasuries, along with normal stuff ordinary people in beijing buy at their local wal-mart. along with the capital structure they need to grow - IBM sold its computer division - why would IBM do that? - to redeploy capital elsewhere and create new goods and services. we're also trying to sell them assets they need i.e. unocal. as for the dollar - the two day correction seems to be over, and the dollar is resuming its ramp http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=DXU5&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

here's another reason why i love the leftists. oil has doubled in the last 2 years - where the hell are the mae culpas? the economy is resilent as hell. no one, not even kudlow on nitrous would've been as bold to say that we'll still clip out GDP at 3% with oil over $50. so piss and moan about the weak economy. other's are marveling at its resiliency.

yes fatbear - oil is going to kill the economy - i'm loaded up. i'll help kill it - thats my job. but it hasnt yet, and just like always the malthusians have to wait another day for that black swan they so desperately seek

 
At 4:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Methinks chad's very behavior on this list shows he is trying to bury a certain hysteria. Come out of the closet, chad, face up to the fact that inside, you can't buy this kind of borrowing and lack of production, either.

>to redeploy capital elsewhere and create new goods and services

To what exactly, biotech? Yeah, computers are so yesterday.

>here's another reason why i love the leftists. oil has doubled in the last 2 years - where the hell are the mae culpas?

Here's another reason I love the rightists - you punks have been telling us for years that we could not afford a gas tax, we could not afford to become more efficient. Now oil is way expensive and you trumpet the fact that the economy is still alive. Well, *we* said we could afford it, it was you guys that cried bitter tears - and pulled that disgusting act where you show concern for the poor, when it was you that screwed them out of mass-transit.

Like one year is enough, but anyway.

And now your Preznit tells us Kyoto would have destroyed our economy, I'm supposed to believe that, too?

-- a different chris

 
At 5:11 PM, Anonymous Tom Marney said...

General,

Congratulations on your first troll (the first I remember, anyway).

Stumbled across this nifty graph (http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2005/05/how_housing_is.html) at Setser's. The trade deficit is ballooning even as personal consumption ex of housing and healthcare costs plummets. Not good.

 
At 7:19 PM, Anonymous chad said...

chris - i assume you favor the minimum wage. why not set it at 50K - the reason we rightists are against taxes is because beaurcrats have incentives to waste. free market enterprises do not. so why should we give keynes - as altruistic as he was - the power to decide where resources go? you dont trust your neighbor?

 
At 8:26 PM, Blogger fatbear said...

uh fatbear - we are selling stuff to the rest of the world - U.S. Treasuries, along with normal stuff ordinary people in beijing buy at their local wal-mart. along with the capital structure they need to grow - IBM sold its computer division - why would IBM do that?

Chad - I want to thank you for bringing humor to the General's - do you really think that a wal-mart in Beijing has anything made in the good ole US of A, when you can't find "made in USA" on anything in a wal-mart right here at home? Do you really think that IBM sold its computer division because it was making money? Do you really think "selling" the Chinese US Tresuries is really "selling" anything? (Last time I looked, as the Chimp said, "they're only IOUs", and they have to be repaid. "Selling" Treasuries isn't making money for anybody in the US, other than the few traders placing the buy orders.) If you answered "Yes" to any of the above, then you are truly a Street Trader - the greater fool theory in person.

Grow up - being long in oil for the last few years isn't brain surgery: anyone with half a brain could've figured that out, even me.

As for incentive to waste, have you ever worked for a major US corp? I have, and the incentive to waste there made the gov't look like productivity masters - you are aware that Medicare has administration costs so far under the insurance industry that the industry can only compete by buying politicians ad infinitum, n'est pas?

Go back to LGF and prove you know more than those fools - you are boring us here, except for the few laughs you bring.

 
At 9:04 PM, Blogger calmo said...

anony thinks we have a troll and fatbear tells chad to go to LGF. But chad has made some compliments ["keep up the good work glut"] and even some self-denigrating comments [ "your my kind of 2 bit economist"] which is very un-troll like.
chad's posts are barely coherent (my kind of 2-bit writer) and I can see this is my problem: chad generates reponses like a call for free beer and calmo has to dance up a storm to get even a 'what?'. [I am so jealous.]
Are my standards for trolling drooping fatbear?

 
At 11:02 PM, Anonymous chad said...

fatbear - the asians buying our debt has made home ownership possible for so many at the margin - it cant be quantified. (how they chose to finace that, is another discussion) As well as making financing for all our corporations easier - actually prolonging the bankruptcy hearings. Actually, come to think of it - the only thing standing in the way of the angry bear, the prechters, and the gluts are the asians. without them loaning us their savings, we would be in the glut's heaven - negative growth, depression and high unemployment.

These ultra low intrest rates provided by our asian friends with our own money is exactly what you want to see.

Yes, we chose to spend our money for cheaper goods produced in asia. Where do those dollars end up? Right back here - ready for additional investment/destruction! The commies are giving us back our own money that we spent so we can invest here - at - guess what - free real rates.

AND YOUR BITCHING!

 
At 11:07 PM, Anonymous chad said...

ooops, sorry its late

its all about the flows
not about the stocks

 
At 3:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>i assume you favor the minimum wage. why not set it at 50K

wtf??? can anybody interpret wackjob for me?? (mental picture of the Airplane scene where Carol Channing annouces "I speak jive" and goes on to do so).

-- a different chris

 
At 6:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why trolls need to be so nasty is a puzzle, but they do. Who cares? I assure you troll I know how to take advantage of this market and have. Duh.

Ari

 
At 10:40 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Is that it: I'm just not nasty enough. [Wait till I tell Jennifer!]
I'm not sure chad is playing the role you think anony (Ari). Is this stage just a platform to hone one's skills (or atleast the marketing of them) on how to take advantage of this market? (Should I be divulging my plans on using the ATM free?)[Not without upfront cash and that, not from your basement.]
These pearls aside (its all about the flows
not about the stocks,
ok, and piles of ideological ones) and the glancing blows that need to be read as transitions, mask some interesting remarks. (Ok, and piles of generalizations and ideological grunting.)[calmo's brave Nastiness exercises have started.]

 
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