Thursday, July 21, 2005

Revaluation

Well, it's finally here -- the new and improved renminbi (in a slightly more powerful formula)!
The yen jumped sharply against a range of currencies following the announcement by the People’s Bank of China that it would revalue the renminbi, following pressure from leading industrialised countries.

The PBOC said it would re-peg the renminbi to Rmb8.11, from Rmb8.2765, and it would adopt a currency basket for managing the currency.

The trading band in which the renminbi would be allowed to fluctuate stayed the same, at 0.3 per cent on either side of the new central level.
As expected, the Chinese sprang this move on world financial markets. On July 11, the Singapore financial newspaper The Edge reported that hot money speculating on a revision had begun leaving Asia. If true, the gamblers were caught (somewhat) unawares.

The revaluation is hardly large, of course -- a mere 2%, less even than the diminished expectations of US revaulation skeptics. This is a far, far cry from the 27.5% revaluation that some in the US Congress are demanding.

And also as expected, the renminbi peg has moved to a basket of currencies, although the content and weight of that basket is as yet unannounced. Thus the renminbi should rise against the dollar by more than 2% because of this move, but probably not by much.

Furthermore, the adage "as goes China, so goes Asia" has been borne out as well. The yen strengthened from around ¥113 yesterday to nearing ¥110 today, and some see the yen reaching that magic ¥100 later this year -- although with US inflation and Japanese deflation, that is hardly a sign of inordinate yen strength any longer.

The most important fallout from the renminbi revaluation is not going to be felt in international trade markets, but instead in international bond markets. As Bloomberg reports,
China's announcement spurred a sell-off in U.S. Treasury securities, amid speculation that the country will reduce its purchases. China is the second-biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, with more that $243 billion at the end of May, according to the Treasury Department. . . .

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose more than 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 4.22 percent.
As more revaluations and more basket tinkering occur in the months and years ahead, one hopes the animal spirits won't take over and drive US interests rates through the roof. Broad Asian currency revaluation now has its chance to truly pare down our gargantuan trade imbalances. Here's wishing it luck.

105 Comments:

At 9:16 AM, Blogger fatbear said...

notre Général -

2% won't do it, it isn't really even a start - Wal-Mart will simply crush the suppliers some more, and others will either do the same or take the hit on profits

It almost seems as though the PRC knows that the boyking is wounded (Plame), and that they're doing just enough to be able to say "we did it" while thumbing their noses - the cows will still come home to roost, and this false start will only make the adjustment that much worse

It all takes me back to Wittfogel - except they ain't worried about water this time

 
At 9:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i understand Malaysia today announced similar move away from dollar peg to basket of currencies. asia definitely moving away from US

 
At 10:47 AM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

fatbear,

You're quite right that 2% is miniscule -- hence the greater short-term importance for the bond market than for trade. However, this seems to be the first in what promises to be a series of revaluations, so I'm trying to be mildly optimistic. We'll have to wait and see if the massive trade deficits with Japan are affected through this change. That may be a more realistic result.

Gen'l Glut

 
At 10:54 AM, Anonymous cm said...

General, I'd rather wish the trade balance to diminish as well, but unfortunately it correlates positively with the US standard of living, and not just a little ... Before the US can substitute at scale with new domestic manufacturing, many items may become quite expensive, and as a consequence prices across the board.

 
At 1:30 PM, Blogger Mike said...

With the chinese labor cost only a fifth or a sixth of US costs, it is unlikely that anything but a massive revaluation would have any impact on US manufacturing. Additionally, now the chinese can purchase oil and other commodities at a slightly reduced cost.

Even if production shifts from China, it would simply shift to cheaper labor markets not the US.

The administration has been demonizing the renminbi peg for so long, what will they do now that that excuse is no longer operable? As the old saying goes, be careful what you ask for you might just get it.

 
At 1:49 PM, Anonymous Movie Guy said...

"With the chinese labor cost only a fifth or a sixth of US costs..."

Uh, you mean 1/20th.

 
At 2:10 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Yes, a small fraction but mike is on it. What will the administration say: Well they will say that it is only a token move. And good thing too, maybe, because a 2% increase in import prices can be handled by the US consumer (if the oil prices are any indication). But a 27.5% increase, as some are asking for, may be a different story.

 
At 4:01 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

The Chinese are using a "measured approach" to revaluation.

 
At 1:14 AM, Anonymous cm said...

mike: I was referring to the trade deficits with anybody, not specifically China. Not that I expect the deficit to diminish soon; who's going to take up the slack in consumer demand?

 
At 8:55 AM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

just to be a stupid pest as usual, here is my hard hitting analysis of what is going on.

I keep warning everyone to watch the damn YEN

Did you all know the yen was 112 to the dollar yesterday? Isn't that HILARIOUS.

Gads.

This is too ridiculous.

 
At 10:14 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Madam loses me here. The emergence of a strong Yen --would that be like the emergence of a strong dollar in the first half of 05, a temporary fling? Will the BoJ be back at the fx buying tbills to ensure it's export led economy continues?
The impact of the renmimbi revaluation seems to be fading fast as most perceive it as a non-event.
Currency uncertainties may be cause to watch gold and some commodities, but the yen?
I give up.

 
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