On second thought . . .
On Wednesday I said
June delivery contracts for petroleum on the NYMEX were much higher than for May delivery three months out, but were actually lower one month out. Thus we probably won't see a big oil import bill in the June trade report eitherI should have consulted the latest BLS report on import and export prices before saying that.
Per the BLS, US petroleum import prices jumped 7.6% in June. Combined with a stronger dollar (broad dollar up 1.1% over May), China's record $9.7bn June trade surplus, and strong retail sales (up 1.7% over May with auto-related sales up nearly 5% -- and the auto sector makes up about 15% of US goods imports), we could see a real blow-out for the June trade deficit back into the high $50bns.
Brad Setser is right; we haven't yet seen the monthly trade deficits peak -- and July should make June look downright tame.