Friday, July 15, 2005

On second thought . . .

On Wednesday I said
June delivery contracts for petroleum on the NYMEX were much higher than for May delivery three months out, but were actually lower one month out. Thus we probably won't see a big oil import bill in the June trade report either
I should have consulted the latest BLS report on import and export prices before saying that.

Per the BLS, US petroleum import prices jumped 7.6% in June. Combined with a stronger dollar (broad dollar up 1.1% over May), China's record $9.7bn June trade surplus, and strong retail sales (up 1.7% over May with auto-related sales up nearly 5% -- and the auto sector makes up about 15% of US goods imports), we could see a real blow-out for the June trade deficit back into the high $50bns.

Brad Setser is right; we haven't yet seen the monthly trade deficits peak -- and July should make June look downright tame.

33 Comments:

At 4:56 PM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

Gen'l, I think the last few months have just been a lull in the storm. The trend hasn't changed. February was unusually high because of some peculiar seasonal adjustments.

I expect June to be in the high '50s (like you) and then for new trade deficit records in the Fall.

I should have some oil estimates soon for June.

Best Regards!

 
At 6:43 PM, Blogger CalculatedRisk said...

Gen'l, I've posted my oil forecast for June. It looks like Oil will add about $1.3 Billion to the June deficit (compared to May).

I should have China numbers next week.

Have a great weekend!

 
At 11:28 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Just a technical question: you mention as one of the factors contributing to a blow-out of June import numbers, a strong dollar up 1.1% from May. That valuation is against the euro and the yen, no? Does it register immediately that those goods imported from Japan are 1.1% higher or is there some delay. Surely the imports are contracted earlier and paid according to that contract at that date?
Secondly, given that Canada has a significant chunk of our imports do we also have to pay close attention to the Loonie/dollar?

 
At 11:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

calmo --

there is a lag. long-term contracts and such. hedging contracts that protect exporters/ importers from changes in the spot price. plus importers and exporters often initially adjust profit margins rather than prices in both ways. so the move in the euro/ dollar may have a bigger impact on say BMW profits than on the retail price of a BMW in the states.

re: Canada. the loonie matters. but given that the US imports lots of energy in various forms from Canada, so does the dollar price of energy. my guess is that the dollar price of energy matters more for us imports from canada, and the loonie/ dollar has a big impact on US exports to Canada (and, with a lag on the location of various auto and auto parts factories and thus on the auto trade balance as well)

 
At 11:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous above = brad setser

 
At 6:56 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

The train wreck continues in slow motion.

Coupled to the political and war train wrecks. Not to mention the ever happy diplomatic train wrecks.

And the fiscal one. Oh my, excluding war funds and emergency funds and slush funds, we are only $333 billion in the red projected for this year's budget! Wow! We are closing the Grand Canyon like Evil Kineivil jumped the Grand Canyon.

 
At 10:36 AM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

calmo,

The 1.1% figure is the broad dollar.

GG

 
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