June jobs numbers TBA
Tomorrow the June employment numbers are released. The Briefing.com folks are forecasting nonfarm payroll growth for the month of 175,000 jobs while the "consensus" expects 195,000. While both these numbers are a world better than May's anemic 78,000 jobs created, don't be fooled by these apparently big forecasts. Over the last six months, monthly job growth (SA) has averaged 175,500; over the last twelve months, job growth (NSA) has averaged 167,750. Thus the Briefing.com forecast is simply a "stay the course" estimate, and the consensus forecast is only slightly above that. Note that even 195,000 jobs would put June as only the third best month for job growth this year.
Mike Shedlock links to Paul Kasriel on the subject, and the latter observes that the "labor market is losing its forward momentum".
When the data is released tomorrow morning, remember that any figure under 175,000 (SA) has to be considered a major disappointment. Any figure under 100,000 will be a disaster.
Take a peek at the NSA figures, too, devoid of BLS hocus pocus. Healthy June job growth is anything over 500,000. Over 600,000 would actually instill some confidence. If this economy can't even hit half a million, you know things are not going well no matter what the hype is.