Thursday, July 07, 2005

June jobs numbers TBA

Tomorrow the June employment numbers are released. The Briefing.com folks are forecasting nonfarm payroll growth for the month of 175,000 jobs while the "consensus" expects 195,000. While both these numbers are a world better than May's anemic 78,000 jobs created, don't be fooled by these apparently big forecasts. Over the last six months, monthly job growth (SA) has averaged 175,500; over the last twelve months, job growth (NSA) has averaged 167,750. Thus the Briefing.com forecast is simply a "stay the course" estimate, and the consensus forecast is only slightly above that. Note that even 195,000 jobs would put June as only the third best month for job growth this year.

Mike Shedlock links to Paul Kasriel on the subject, and the latter observes that the "labor market is losing its forward momentum".

When the data is released tomorrow morning, remember that any figure under 175,000 (SA) has to be considered a major disappointment. Any figure under 100,000 will be a disaster.

Take a peek at the NSA figures, too, devoid of BLS hocus pocus. Healthy June job growth is anything over 500,000. Over 600,000 would actually instill some confidence. If this economy can't even hit half a million, you know things are not going well no matter what the hype is.

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At 7:30 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Nice to see the other PK linked to and even the link to Mauldin.
The nature of the new jobs may be as important as the number, as per your recent post about the high levels of residential costruction jobs.

 
At 8:00 AM, Anonymous DF said...

now they are released. 150000.
Hours per week stay the same.
Wages grow by 0,2% I guess that's below this month inflation if you include oil.

So there's not many jobs created, oil is higher than 61, the dollar is rising relative to the euro... And yet the stock markets are booming.
If anyone can explain it to me ...

 
At 9:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Stock valuations are attractive here and in Europe, interest rates are low, earnings should be fine for some time, so what's not to like about stocks? Economies are sluggish, but thaty is no reason not to invest.

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At 9:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That you worry shows you have sense, for there is much to worry about. Still, look to the Vanguard REIT Index for another gauge of the real estate market. Right now you can see the effect of money still coming to the sector, and you can see valuations become increasingly troublesome. Nonetheless there is always a rationale to buying a market going up and institutions as well as private investors are buying.

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At 9:16 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Where are the stock markets "booming"? The DJIA managed a surprising 30pt gain on the London news, not a boom but an oddity partially explained by "flight to quality" and partially explained by an expectation of further and deeper committments to the war on terror. But this oddity is nothing more than that and so the explanations are equally feather-weight.
Manufacturing losses compensated by gains in financial services, (ok, and other service areas too).
The 3 cent gain in wages in contrast with Purcell's $112M retirement with Morgan Stanley after a dismal career as CEO distracted me. Not all jobs are equal apparently as we look at this service job and realize we wage earners are truly getting serviced.

 
At 7:39 PM, Blogger calmo said...

The DOW is up 140pts today on the robust employment numbers? on news that the destination for quality investing is still the US? on disgust with the measily yields on bonds? on the usual volatility that happens so that HFs can still make something a living (cough) [so beware Monday's fall]? on the news that China might buy a few more companies on the DOW? on the news that $60/bl oil is no reason to shake those legs and start using the bike?
I think the DOW has to climb above 11,000 to shake the bear off my back. And even then, I'll be looking at a much weaker dollar I bet.

 
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