Friday, July 08, 2005

June employment report: Not good

The June jobs figures have been released by the BLS, and the news is not good.
Hiring around the country picked up slightly in June with employers adding 146,000 jobs — helping to push the unemployment rate down to 5 percent, the lowest in nearly four years. . . .

The modest payroll gain of 146,000 jobs in June was up from 104,000 net jobs added in May. Payroll growth for both April and May turned out to be better than the government previously reported. Still, the strength of job growth seen in June was likely to disappoint economists. Before the release of the report, they were forecasting a more robust increase of around 195,000 jobs for the month.
One economist called the US labor market "anemic", and I think that's the best adjective for it.

First, the June total is nearly 50,000 jobs short of the market consensus and nearly 30,000 jobs short of Briefing.com's rather tepid forecast. While the May numbers have been revised upwards, the June tally still falls over 40,000 jobs short of the 2005 average (through May's revised numbers). May and June of this year are averaging 125,000 new jobs per month, the slowest growth since July-August 2004.

The SA figures show big contributions by professonal and business services (+56,000), health care and social assistance (+34,500), construction (+18,000) and food services and drinking places (+17,600). In fact, that's 86% of the net total growth right there. Nearly half of the professional and business services growth was in administrative and support services. In total, the big job winners last month appear to be secretaries, health care workers, cooks, wait staff, day care providers and construction workers.

Some of this gloom might be caused by seasonal adjustment. The NSA June number was 611,000, which makes June 2005 the best June since 1999. Turning to the NSA numbers, one can see the continuing importance of the real estate sector for US employment. Of those 611,000 real seasonally-unadjusted jobs created in June, we have: 196,000 in construction; 31,700 in real estate; 31,000 in architectural and engineering services. Together these three real-estate related sectors contributed 42.3% of the actual new jobs in June (the SA figure is a more reserved 22.6%).

The real state sector is beginning to get squeezed by higher interest rates, however, and thus one has to wonder how much longer this sector can carry the US economy. Yesterday Freddie Mac reported that rates on one-year ARMs are now up to 4.33%. That makes this week the second time this year that the one-year ARM has broken the 4.30% ceiling of its long-standing fluctuation band. Considering how many homebuyers rely on ARMs today (34% nationally, over 50% in every California market), squeezing the marginal buyers will have more than marginal effects.

303 Comments:

At 10:21 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Have to agree with your commentary and appreciate your view of the NSA numbers. The fact that unemployment is down to 5%, the lowest in 19yrs, did not get much attention. The administration is likely to see nothing else in this report than this stat which on the face of it looks like unabashedly good news.
But is it?
Why don't I get the feeling that more people in this country are employed now than in any of the last 19yrs?
Misplaced feelings?
Being unemployed now (as opposed to disenchanted, etc) is a technical achievement few are able to master?
The statisticians are in the hands of the politicians (like the SSA) now?

 
At 10:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

IMO the real "news" here is the biggest fall in manufacturing. employment (-24.000) since January.No way to a reduction in the c.a. deficit till this thing changes.But the existing economic structure is deepening the disequilibrium.

 
At 10:54 AM, Anonymous cm said...

calmo: I'm not sure how "visible" employment is. If you don't often eat & drink out a lot or deal with construction sites, or in your work deal with outsourced office services providers, you may not appreciate the "job growth". Perhaps you focus on "good" jobs, and rightfully see no rosy picture there. Also don't forget that the unemployment rate is a relative indicator, the denominator not being the whole working-age population.

I have previously commented on how I was struck by surprise when I once went to a fastfood place and was served by something like 5 different people from entering the door to leaving. One greeter, one to lead me 5 steps to the table (the place was quite small), one to take the order, one to bring the food, one to remove the dishes. Quite a "division of labor", that.

(NOTE: The "good" is not meant as a judgement of the occupation a job offers, but in the absence of any social safety net to speak of, pay & benefits are by far the most important job quality measure.)

 
At 11:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lowest unemployment number in 4 years, not 19.

Jennifer

 
At 12:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It seems to me that also an important question is how much of the BLS's Net Birth/Death model "fudge factor" of 184,000 for June is real?

This adjustment is supposed to correct for new businesses being formed that don't get counted -- this month it is greater in value that the headline number of 146K!

Don't know about other parts of the country, but locally sure seem to see a lot more businesses closing rather than opening (lot's of "for lease" signs on commercial buildings).

 
At 12:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

P.S. I probably should have have referenced that the Birth-Death figure is NSA.

 
At 1:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Take a look at the stock market response.

AJ

 
At 1:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

BLS birth/death is an ARMA model, apparently unexceptionable, if a bit gold-plated for the purpose. Has anybody been able to find the parameters? Good FOIA request for somebody with more initiative than this commenter... that's one place where fudging might show up, in arbitrary parameter changes. In any case, if job creation is peaking, the estimate would artificially boost the number for a while, depending on the model terms.

 
At 3:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>Take a look at the stock market response.

I did, knowing that it wouldn't help anyway.

It's up as of this second - but the stock market generally hates to see people get employed, so does that mean the reports are bad?

But other times the stock market has such an underlying fear of the economy's actual firmness that it looks for any signs of good news, including hiring, to allow it to indulge in an urge to buy.

So which is it this month???

--a different chris

 
At 3:23 PM, Blogger calmo said...

About the birth/death model: last month's guesstimate was even higher IIRC (but Jennifer knows I can't be trusted) and despite that "fudge", the 78,000 number for May was revised upward.
Could happen again with this month's, but at some point (could be next month's) this model is going to seriously mislead as construction, say, surprises to the downside and takes with it some financial services rather than adding the usual ~20,000.

cm puts his finger on the quality issue, --that the minimum wage or entry level jobs are making the difference to this otherwise drab employment picture.

I saw where (Morgan Stanley's CEO) Purcell's retirement package was $112M and wondered how many job-years that was worth. The BLS furnishes us with a lot of information, but these details are missing.

 
At 5:35 PM, Anonymous cm said...

To all anonymi: Below the comment box, there is an area with 3 radio buttons, of which you can click the second ("Other"), and put a name or pseudonym in the "Name" box which will then be displayed in the comment. As an additional goodie, the preview will show the comment as it will display.

 
At 5:39 PM, Anonymous cm said...

calmo: I believe it was in a Dilbert cartoon where I read that the "GOOD" in "good job" was an acronym for "Get Out Of Debt".

 
At 1:38 AM, Anonymous Movie Guy said...

June 2005: 7,486,000 unemployed.

June 1995 - June 2001 all reflected lower numbers of individuals unemployed.


Unemployment rate / Unemployment number:

*using May 2005 data

1994 - 6.0 percent / 7,817,000
1995 - 5.6 percent / 7,384,000
1996 - 5.3 percent / 7,060,000
1997 - 5.0 percent / 6,836,000
1998 - 4.5 percent / 6,237,000
1999 - 4.3 percent / 5,975,000
2000 - 4.0 percent / 5,583,000
2001 - 4.5 percent / 6,422,000
2002 - 5.9 percent / 8,424,000
2003 - 6.4 percent / 9,358,000
2004 - 5.6 percent / 8,248,000
2005 - 5.1 percent / 7,647,000 *

June unemployment average: 7,213,090

May 2005 unemployment:
+ 434,000 vs. June average;
+ 2,064,000 over low June number

-----
UPDATE:

June - 161,000 unemployment drop

2005 June: 5.0% / 7,486,000

 
At 7:20 AM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Another hurricane is grinding up the coast. Of course, everyone will expect federal spigots to open up like the heavens and rain another 20 billion bucks on Florida.

And more buildings will be build and there will be a bigger building boom down there as soon as the last major hurricane passes and the looming earthquake that is doomed to destroy a good part of the California housing will open the spigots.

When our country goes bankrupt, life will be interesting indeed.

 
At 7:40 AM, Anonymous Joshua said...

Barry Ritholtz drills beneath the BLS headlines

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/07/drilling_beneat.html

 
At 9:55 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Why am I having trouble getting a grip on all that work Movie is doing?
That average for the last 11 Junes gives us a bead on what a seasonal number for June looks like?
It is 7,213,090. [6 places of accuracy is a few too many] And apparently we are to take this baseline seriously, as it is compared to May 05 which is reported to be 434,000 above this mark.
But May 05 is 2,064,000 over low June number [at the height of the tech boom] if we were looking for another benchmark. [not the more the merrier, but another view however unfair adds perspective, maybe]
Neither of these measures takes into account immigration, population growth or demographic profiles to generate much sustained excitement (probably only for imperturbable me).
The most recent stat, June 05 is a 161,000 unemployment drop (presumably from the previous month's tally) which confirms or denies something. Is it that more people are working as the lower (5.0%) number attests? Is it that the variance in previous June numbers is so much larger, that this 161,000 number is insignificant?
Is it that I'm innumerate?

 
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Hoodia Diet is the solution for safe weight loss. Hoodia Gordonii contains a natural active ingredient, P57, which has only recently been identified. The P57 works as an appetite suppressant.

Taking Hoodia Diet Tablets when you are hungry alleviates the feeling of hunger and so makes you less likely to snack between meals due to hunger.

The Hoodia Gordonii Cactus has been used by the San indigenous people of South Africa for hundreds of years as an appetite suppressant and thirst quencher.

Extracts from this succulent have shown in clinical trials on obese subjects to reduce caloric intake by 30% to 40%. Significant weight loss has resulted from such a drop in caloric intake.

Therefore, Hoodia is one of the best and most powerful natural appetite suppressant available, if used in conjunction with any diet. Hoodia will help you to stop snacking between meals. It will also help you to reduce the amount that you eat at meal times.
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