Thursday, July 14, 2005

Inflation, shminflation part 4

Another tepid inflation report released today by the BLS.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The June level of 194.5 (1982-84=100) was 2.5 percent higher than in June 2004. . . .

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in June, following a decrease of 0.1 percent in May.
While the annual consumer inflation rate (SA) now stands at 2.5%, the annualized 3-month rate is a mere 1.9%. Core annual consumer inflation is just 2.0%, and the annualized 3-month rate is 1.2%. Core inflation has been trending downwards since its February peak of 2.4% and in June was back to the level of last fall. The 3-month core annualized rate hasn't been this low since December 2003 -- the deflation scare days.

This report continues to demonstrate the dramatic differences over the last three months in US inflation rates by sector: deflation or near-deflation (<2%) in most goods, mild inflation (2-5%) in most services including medical care, and relatively high inflation (>5%) in energy and a few high-end services like college education. Here are a few examples of annual inflation (NSA) in June 2005 at the ends of the spectrum:
Information technology, hardware and services: -8.7%
Toys: -7.6%
Apparel: -1.5%
Video and audio: -1.2%
Household furnishings and operations: +0.3%
New cars and trucks: +0.6%
Food at home: +1.4%
Financial services: +1.7%

. . .

Airline fares: +5.8%
Gasoline: +6.9%
Fuels and utilities: +7.2%
College tuition and fees: +8.1%
Energy commodities: +8.2%
If it wasn't for rocketing energy prices, we'd be talking about Ben Bernanke's deflation speech all over again. Remember that Bernanke delivered his speech in November 2002 when core CPI (NSA) stood at 2.0% and falling -- the same level and direction as June 2005.

In two inflation posts yesterday (here and here), Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture argued
Any time you see a fund manager or eoconomist on CNBC discussing how benign inflation is, you can comfortably file that person away as clueless cheerleader.
Barry is right to the extent that he points out the dramatic differences across sectors as well as the failure of real wages to keep up with important goods and services like fuel and education. That being said, overall we are looking at incredibly -- and I think potentially dangerously -- low inflation levels. And my track record shows I'm no cheerleader.

554 Comments:

At 10:07 AM, Anonymous DF said...

yeah.
oil hits the consumer.
Real wages fall even though inflation is close to 0.
But stock markets sky rocket.
I bet they're hoping the fed will pause on rates hike.
It may indeed. However what room is there for rate reductions ?

How irrational can you get ?
You say it will take 2 months till we really see the deficit rising again ...
That's 2 months lost for action according to me.

 
At 10:15 AM, Anonymous marku said...

I'm beginning to think that this is what the world now normally looks like, like a reflection split in half by a fun house mirror.

We are seeing a battle between relentless Asian overproduction- leading to deflation in wages and anything that can be imported (sans energy)-and asset bubble fueled inflation in everything else (housing, education, health care)

This is what happens when central bankers, instead of dealing with beggar-thy-neighbor mercantilism and out-of-control trade deficits, try to keep the patient alive on an overdose of liquidity.

 
At 10:47 AM, Anonymous cm said...

What I see in those numbers is by and large deflation in the "producing" sectors only. With the notable exception of education, which is not exactly a discretionary item.

 
At 11:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fine post.

Jennifer

 
At 12:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you for not cheerleading. Reality is refreshing. Deflation is a topic that few are addressing. Overproduction, as usual, is the primary cause.

 
At 4:47 PM, Blogger Barry Ritholtz said...

General,

I know your no cheerleader -- I was referring to the Candide's of the economic world, the goldilocks crowd who spin every data point as if it were on wheel, who do not believe that anything is wrong anywhere in the economy.

Its the low unemployment rate crowd, the Household data group, the low CPI cabal.

They have exhausted my patience, and I will be publicly outing them as the money losing hacks they are

 
At 6:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the fed should consider printing up some money and using it to pay off principal on its debts. It would help to reduce the deficit painlessly. In of itself, it could only drop the value of the dollar, cause interest rates to rise, and increase inflation. All of which would be good right now. The degree of which will be determined by what foreign central banks do in reaction.

 
At 7:02 AM, Anonymous Df said...

The fed should do that for sure, and in the mean time continue to raise its interest rates.
It should be working at becoming the only money creator, and only lender in this economy.

Just figure this out, if there were only one bank, the fed, making 100% of the loans, if there ever was excessive debt accumulation (like right now), the fed could print money and give it to those indebted so they could repay.

The problem is that nowadays the fed creates less than 5% of the money, so if others fail to increase their lending (create money), we're in deflation.

 
At 7:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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At 9:19 AM, Anonymous DF said...

Wazup ?
All indicators turn to green.
Industrial production is up, consumer confidence is up, deficits fall, the only thing not improving is employment, but employment situation is not bad at all, it's just not as good as it should be ...
so ... a short happy blip ? Or a long awaited reversal of trends ?

 
At 9:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What's so dangerous about 2% inflation? The decade 1951-1960 saw average inflation of 1.4% a year and was arguably the best economic decade for the average American of the last century.

Obsessive concern about deflation has caused the fed to embrace ultra-easy monetary policy, which, ironically, has made deflation more likely by leading to over-indebtedness an debt-trap dynamics.

 
At 9:46 AM, Blogger Tim said...

I think Marku 11:15 hit the nail on the head. I worked up some charts here
that demonstrate this idea a bit.

 
At 10:16 AM, Blogger calmo said...

anony recalls the golden decade with similar inflation and wonders what all the fuss is about.
Me too. Did the golden age have $3B/day deficits? Were personal debt loads in the '50s like those of today? Were the industrial powerhouses, the auto and airline industries, run on something other than their financial arms?

Did folks unabashedly hang out their laundry on the clothes line?

Now that it's out there swinging in the breeze, what IS so bad about deflation? Greenspan thinks there is plenty, pointing at Japan, but is that so bad?

Given the vast powers of perception at the Fed, and given the consistent analytical nature of that august body, and that Bernanke is no light weight spokesman in that body, is it likely that the prime has reached its peak? Is it time to stop and let those house prices roar, saving those late-comers to the game (and those speculators) a lot of grief? Or is it time to continue and show that the Fed really does have some control over this economy?

I wish there were other things to hang on the clothes line than little white flags, you?

 
At 2:31 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

Big surprise - all those sectors where jobs have been exported experience low inflation/deflation, and those that cannot (yet) be exported (college, health care) are rising, along with energy.

GG - remember that history doesn't repeat itself exactly - this is a weird overproduction crisis - on the one hand we have lots of stuff no one needs (toys, electronics), on the other those things you need to survive in the future (housing, education, health care) are rising.

In addition, with a growing economy and deflating wages (how is that for weird) - an inflation rate of 2.5% is equivalent to an experienced inflation rate of 4 - 5%. Again, labor experiences this rate, but not capital - since we have effectively decoupled inflation from wage demands.

The CPI is primarily a wage inflation rate - an inflation rate that is important to capital - there is no equivalent metric that the rest of us can use to gain an accurate understanding of our lived experience.

I will repeat that the coming deflation will be a credit collapse - as that is the true currency of today's consumers.

 
At 7:34 PM, Blogger calmo said...

I confess to a fondness for your terms peBird.
Wierdness.
I agree totally with the overproduction of many electronic goodies (the all-in-one cell phone that starts your car and, at your option, the spin dryer) while core needs ( the gas that goes into that car, the electricity that feeds the spin dryer, the hospital, if some one was playing in that dryer unattended) and housing are a different story.
I especially like the way you cuff the official inflation rate back into place with the notion "experienced inflation rate". Corporations, not having any feelings, use the official variety --that one's for them. When was the last time corporations bought health care? This (not just you) is right. And wierd.
Reminds me of that exchange: 'Can you tolerate pain?' --'Oh, I hope so.', which generates its 'wierdness' (ok, humor then) from placing the idea of tolerance in an odd context. ['Oh, yes please.' is not quite so funny.]
You can see that I am led astray by wierdness. So you'll have to repeat why
you think "...the coming deflation will be a credit collapse."

 
At 12:49 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

Calmo:

We often use the Great Depression as an example for what we think will happen. The idea that we are having a good ol' fashioned K-Cycle / overproduction crisis is a simplification, but a useful one.

However, events don't repeat themselves precisely - there are contingent, unique elements in each epoch that defines those periods. So, while the overproduction thesis is useful, I don't believe we can simply point to that and say "ah ha, that is what is going to happen".

The inflation rate is a symptom of this. It's now what I call a "weird signal". Back when wages and productivity and pricing were closely coupled you could use it as a rough gauge of overall economic health at a macro as well as micro/individual level. I maintain its lost that value - it means something else now, so pointing to it as a tell for deflation, etc. just doesn't mean much to me.

With regard to credit collapse, I'm no monetarist - but their is some value there. Their definition of deflation is a reduction in the money supply - which you might think would raise prices (less money chasing goods), but since this destroys demand, prices fall, confidence falls, investment falls, the economy stops. Now prices are very low, but so what, you can't afford it anyway. So for you prices are high, nominally prices are low - call it what you want.

The Weimar Republic's "attempt" to fix this was literally Bernanke's helicopter money - which resulted in 5000% hyperinflation and people burned marks because it was cheaper than buying firewood. We are more sophisticated now, so I doubt there will be any helicopter money - or if there is, the helicopters will be flying over Morgan Stanley.

The prior use of credit (in the Great Depression) was for speculative assets. We are repeating that again, but (this is a big but) credit is also used for consumption far far more than before. So, I believe a reduction in the money supply is in the offing - because banks control that and more importantly they control credit, which unlike a cash distribution can be cut off at the source immediately - we will probably see a sector of the US population being impoverished very quickly - the trick is not to let the damage spread too far.

 
At 10:33 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Thanks for the expansion PeBird.
A couple of thoughts. The geezers maybe prefer to cast The Great Depression as the example to avoid, but I think most worriers look at Japan's deflation as a little more apropos. Certainly, the former is more dramatic and Japan's example decidedly worrisome to those who are overly attached to their portfolios.
The deflation card, frequently presented in this blog, does seem to be a plausible outcome looking at the official numbers which you so neatly put in their place. The real story though is the housing market and the fact that the Fed is increasing its rates is an admission that the CPI is not the index they are using to gauge inflation. If house prices keep rising, the Fed will keep increasing the prime, IMHO.
And I think this is where our views diverge:
"So, I believe a reduction in the money supply is in the offing - because banks control that..."
but it's clear to me that the cash-outs on the house have been the banks for the last while and that is another reason Greenspan is trying to rein in housing. Housing is the only game in town, so closing it down with higher interest rates closes everything. Even slowing it down, as AG hopes with 25bp increases, to some hoped for equilibrium will amount to the same, if somewhat prolonged, ending.
I give the house a much bigger role to play than you seem to. With a turn in the house prices we will certainly be in deflation, no matter what the price of crude, IMHO. [Oil has a part to play, but so far this seems managed and manageable, --unlike housing.] So AG will decidedly not push the interest rates to the point of turning the house prices. So I see no end to the housing bubble on account of interest rate hikes and therefore no real control on the money supply either. Deflation is something the Fed can print their way out of by lowering interest rates, but inflation now seems beyond their control. I look at house price increases as the real inflation gauge ~10%.

 
At 12:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm wondering if the fed's increases are due to the need to keep foriegn capital flowing in to finance the deficits more than relecting currency realities?

 
At 12:49 PM, Anonymous peBird said...

Calmo:

I consider the cash out refinance asset bubble phenom acts as US middle class welfare - without it the US middle class would be in pretty bad shape. While in the Great Depression raw economic forces ran a classic K-curve, there is now so much manipulation in the markets and within finance that there is an attempt to focus the damage to a particular sector of the economy/population - those with the least political power. The poor and most working cannot refinance - they have no assets.

Yet, while loan "standards" have decreased, this section of the population are offered loans - but since they are buying at the peak, they will have no wealth effect, other than psychological - in other words they get a liability but no equity. Whereas the middle income (those with homes prior to the asset runup) and the middle class speculators will be able to enjoy some of this "welfare".

So the credit crunch may not be a bang, but a whimper - for that section of working folks in the US that barely have enough wages and earning power to latch onto an overpriced mortgage. Deflation will hit these people the hardest. At least, that I think is the "plan", so to speak - I just wonder if the damage to the economy can be contained.

 
At 1:38 PM, Blogger calmo said...

I'm glad you think there is a plan. [I think there is an attitude but nothing so articulate as a "plan".]
I wish I could see this as clearly as the class struggle you do.("The poor and most working cannot refinance - they have no assets.")[30% are not home owners, and mostly poor but perhaps these renters are not the majority of The Poor whose ranks are also filled with 'homeowners' who are near the end of their refi days.] The continuation of house inflation is robbing those whose stagnant incomes derive from wages/salaries (not attached to residential real estate). They will have to toil longer for the same box. The $500,000 starter house is a (ok, localized) reification of currency debasement. So is the $113M settlement to Purcell (ok, not localized geographically) for the fine job he did at Morgan Stanley.
I don't think the home owners before the inflation (00?) are free from damage should 'the crunch' come.

 
At 9:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe you don't get out much but I drive EVERYWHERE and we're in stagflation. Tolls and gas are off the charts and the highways are EMPTY except near major cities. I can drive from NY to ORD in 11 hours @ 85mph and no one blinks.

 
At 10:58 PM, Blogger calmo said...

85mph.

No one blinks because their eyelids are pinned to the top of their eye sockets wondering what that blurr was. [Stagflating you ain't.]
You are right about the prices at the pump [with 85mph you are a frequent pump user, no?], but what I hear is people are on the road in record numbers for their favorite holiday resorts. Maybe not joy riding in the evenings like maybe you're suggesting.
[Maybe they've decided they (I'm with them) can't keep up to the evening traffic.]
Somehow I'm not convinced that the gas consumption in this country really varies that much. But maybe after a couple of hours commuting each day, that is not enough and given the garbage on TV, they are only too happy to get out on the road again --now that they can really cruise.

85 mph.

(And if they were headed the other way, you wouldn't even see em.)
[Good thing I don't get out much anymore.]

 
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