Monday, June 27, 2005

MORE ON OVERACCUMULATION

From Martin Wolf's column in the Financial Times today (sub. only):
High savings rates in oil-rich countries are not surprising. Nor are they foolish. Recipients of a windfall do well to spread the spending out over time. But Russia's current account surplus of 10 per cent of GDP last year must also reflect the dreadful investment climate in that country.

Yet Asia is, once again, the big story. China's investment rate is 15 percentage points higher than the pre-crisis average, while its savings rate is 12 percentage points higher (see chart). The Asean four invested only 21 per cent of GDP in 2004, which is 4 percentage points lower than the pre-crisis average, while their savings rates are 3 points higher. Finally, the Asian newly industrialised countries have also lowered their investment rates by 4 percentage points since before the crisis, while their savings rates have dropped by almost 2 points.

Thus the soaring savings surplus of emerging Asia is the result of rising savings rates and, in some cases, of falling investment rates as well. More­over, if China's massive investment rate were to fall to levels that are normal elsewhere, its current account surplus could jump to enormous levels.
What is interesting in this instance of overaccumulation is the extent to which state policies have managed it. As Wolf points out, in their quest to limit domestic investment, Asian states have gone on a sterilization binge:
the excess of the increase in foreign currency reserves over the expansion of their monetary base has been very large: between 2002 and 2004, it was 19 per cent of GDP in the newly industrialised countries, 11 per cent in China and 8 per cent in India.
Why are these states so keen to limit productive investment in their own economies? Clearly China feels its best bet is to sell to the United States, not at home. From 1997 to 2004, US goods imports from China surged 214% in nominal terms, from $62.6bn to $196.7bn. So far this year the US is on pace to import $252.3bn in goods from China -- over 300% more than just 8 years ago. Moreover, as Wolf points out, "Already [China's] ratio of trade (exports plus imports) to GDP is 70 per cent. This is much the same as for South Korea." It is truly astounding how dependent on trade this largest country in the world is.

And as China goes, so goes East Asia, for most if not all of the rest of East Asia is along for the Chinese ride.

Of course, there is no necessary reason why more capital investment into China will be funneled into the productive sector. The Shanghai real estate market indicates as much. China is producing an enormous amount of capital -- thanks to transnational corporations especially -- but as yet cannot provide anywhere near enough profitable avenues for its investment.

The history of the resolution of crises of overaccumulation is the devaluation of capital. Inflation (including currency devaluation) is one means, but the commitment of the most powerful central banks of the world to near-zero inflation makes this an unlikely avenue of resolution. Asset devaluation -- such as a real estate collapse -- is another, perhaps more likely candidate. Bankruptcy and unemployment are also on the list. One must also consider the social and geographical diversity of these processes of devaluation. In periods of acute overaccumulation, the goal is always to stick the 'other guy' with the costs of devaluation -- whether the 'other guy' is another industry, another social class or another country. Financial crisis gives birth to crisis in the 'real economy' and all scramble to make sure the 10-ton weight falls on somebody else.

Or will Uncle Alan -- or Uncle Ben in the future -- find us yet another asset to soak up this excess capital, cascading us from one bubble to another to another? I certainly don't rule out the evil genius of the financial sector finding us still one more roller coaster to ride.

198 Comments:

At 11:41 AM, Blogger calmo said...

I think it was poster dd who offered the suggestion that it might be our social security that might be financialized next. Issuing social security securities.
Were you leaving room for Madam's ideas of military resolution to over-accumulation?
I am.

 
At 11:44 AM, Anonymous fatbear said...

Nomination for next bubble - oil.

Before I get jumped on, I have been into peak oil and running-out-of-everything for so long (like the Club of Rome long) that you should all save time and not lecture me on that. Peak oil is here (or soon to be here), but we are fast building one last bubble in oil - high and rising prices are now mainstream news, former "what, me worry" pundits are gaga over the pricing-will-only-go-higher trend, and all the early signs of a bubble are building.

Last year, when oil "cratered" to the mid-40's, and many were saying that oil was returning to more normal levels, I went out on the limb here (or on the sainted Haloscan comments at the old ascetic site, to be more specific) and said we'd see 60 before we saw 40.

Now I'll go out on the limb again - we'll see 70, maybe 80 soon, but then we'll be back to 50 at some point. It's getting too frothy out there.

N.B. - Invasion of Iran, Saudi revolution, etc., - in that case, all bets off.

 
At 11:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

if i understand 'overaccumulation' correctly, it boils down to excess supply vs. demand....

it seems to me that if the people of china were given better a standard of living by their rulers, who are currently pursuing mercantile desires for their country at their people's expense, then there would be a giant new source of demand for everything from china.
one possible way this would happen is currency revaluation making the yuan the chinese people hold more valuable.
a second possible way is for the bank of china to refund their abundant foreign reserves to their people in individual checks.

i guess what i'm saying is that the problem of us trade deficit could be fixed with bigger u.s. to china exports more easily that choking off china to u.s. imports.

 
At 1:54 PM, Blogger fatbear said...

btw, notre Général, did you happen to catch this other story in today's FT (behind pay wall, so you'll have tot rust me)?

Seems JPMorgan has figured that the low long bond yields are due to major corporations hoarding cash - over $1Trillion by their reckoning - 4 times as much as (they claim) foreign central banks - I had a good laugh, as I faintly remember that nearly $2Trillion of Treasuries are owned by foreign CBs, and I really, really doubt the Mr. CFO is buying a significant amount of 10 yr bonds with any excess cash in the kitty.

 
At 2:04 PM, Blogger fatbear said...

"really doubt that Mr. CFO" - sorry

gotta get used to this blogger stuff. like preview....

 
At 6:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think we've moved on to synthetic super-leveraged bubbles like derivatives, asset-backed securitization and structured synthetics with hedge funds leading the charge. Problem is everything is so opaque that it's a hard sell to the little folk; but it's coming much as AG transferred credit risk away from Fannie and Freddie to the foolish citizenry.
Calmo, there's still plenty of time to securitize SS.
dd

 
At 8:03 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

China is carrying a trade surplus with us deliberately.

Sort of like those "rent a TV " stores. They extend you credit, you get a TV and then pay off....as you collapse into bankruptcy.

The goal is to bankrupt America. They are succeeding. When our empire collapses, they rule the planet.

We get to fall into third world status.

 
At 8:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Elaine, are you after comedy? I can not tell.

 
At 9:25 PM, Blogger calmo said...

This bit:
"Problem is everything is so opaque that it's a hard sell to the little folk; but it's coming much as AG transferred credit risk away from Fannie and Freddie to the foolish citizenry."
I suppose alludes to AG's reccomendation for ARMs when it appeared there might be some demand weakness and getting some folks off their fixed rate mortgages would not only help them pay some bills but take a load of Fannie's back.
I have not seen anything new here except that Fannie's portfolio has shrunk as it adjusts to the tougher rules (holding 30%?). Other agencies are handling the mortgages (and GSEs?) and volumes seem as strong as ever.
This little folk suspects there is a lot of risk still with Fannie and Freddie.

 
At 9:35 PM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Yes, it is a laugh riot. America is funny. Running up heroic debts while fretting about the Chinese "saving money".

Hahaha.

Yup.

Very funny indeed.

 
At 11:43 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Need to follow up on Elaine's remark/reply:
"Running up heroic debts while fretting about the Chinese "saving money".
as this hit me the same way having perused brads thread on this same issue.
Even if China's surplus is as high as he thinks (~$200B), this is still only a fraction of our deficit. The real culprit does seem to be our glutony not China's timid appetite. The Japanese practice seems much more engrained and yet it does not get any attention.
Is it just inconceivable to take the foot off the gas pedal?
Not that we have a vast array of merchandise that would appeal to the newly transformed peasants. Electric toothbrush/cell phone combo? Don't they make these thingies for us? LED studded chop sticks so you can see what you're eating when the lights go out? Don't the Japanese already do this one for them?
brads just returned from China so maybe he has some hot ideas about what they are really missing.
I just couldn't bring myself to post without ranting.
Not like here where Madam paves the way and makes my life so much easier.

 
At 12:16 AM, Anonymous chad said...

I think glut's on to something here. Yeah, i'm a daytrading scum of the earth and all that jazz. I look at the ultra low intrest rates around the world as a lack of diversification. The asians simply have no other place to park their capital. So, why not finance your customers? As far as the renminbi revaluation goes, the best we can hope for is a "democratization" of the glut that the general so despises. By that i mean the "chase to the bottom." Oil and land are the bubbles - hell they are the currency of choice. With contango in the crude pits - and the carry trade, the land and oil markets will crash after the fever of exchanging fiat currency for something "hard" subsides. But by that time the depression outta be pretty deep, and thus those "bubbles" will colapse. Bringing an end to the beautiful cycle glut is describing. And then what? We'll go right back to oil and the same old song and dance. Our only chance is we listen to what markets are saying. But, like fatbear thinks - oil is still the furthest thing from anyone's mind - which means we havent we begun the pain. The whole point of my mini market diatribe is WHAT WOULD YOU DO GLUT? I mean yeah, markets tend toward crises. THATS WHY WE HAVE THEM - so we can recognize whats going nutty without a senate subcommitte hearing. Markets tend toward overaccumulation - perfect example - LTCM - i.e. everyone doing the same thing because it works. The real question is glut, what arbitrary notions would you devise to distribute resources and wealth to the masses of peons living on this earth?

 
At 12:46 AM, Anonymous cm said...

China needs & wants Western technology, and "demand pull" for its products in order to build its own tech, science, and workforce. They pay for this by producing for the West and inviting outsourcers at favorable terms. Without external trade, this internal buildup would be impossible or at least greatly hampered. Others have done this before, albeit on a smaller scale.

The idea is not only to command large USD reserves when the time comes, but also to have a modern industry with some semblance of self-sufficiency. Whether realistic, it's the goal.

And then of course there is always the aspect of the elites running the show cutting themselves a good piece out of the mutual trade.

 
At 2:17 AM, Anonymous DF said...

Well folks reading this and knowing this and that, the solution to most of our problems is well known :
monetize deficits
raise wages (start with the minimum wage)
restore some tariffs globally in an orderly manner
create a new world currency issued by the IMF

Why do I get this feeling that power ful forces, from those who have will prevent any of this necessary step ?
Why do I get this feeling that only a huge depression, as usual now, will rein in the capitalist hord, force it to accept some regulation again, until that regulation becomes too much of a burden, fraud becomes massive and the regulation is dismantled ... ANother cycle.

 
At 2:21 AM, Anonymous DF said...

when I tried to create an account the pg told me that the user name I proposed was not available (I proposed 3 different ones ...)
any explanation ?

 
At 5:34 AM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

I wonder why few people know or want to know about the Bretton Woods currency processes?

We are overdue another revision.

This won't happen because America has become corrupted by easy debt instruments. The latest is one where you pay for a $250,000 house as if it were on a credit card, if the minimum payment is made, the interest due is added to the principal so the balance grows, not shrinks.

70% of holders of this sort of mortgage pay the minimum!

As we grow our debts we pretend there is no downside to this, the appearance of wealth is all that matters. This childish lifestyle means one doesn't understand the future nor makes even a slight attempt at dealing with the future.

Bad news for us. Arf.

 
At 9:04 AM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Here is my article today on the subject of trade/currency etc.

The JAPANESE are now beginning to ship cars made in China to America!

Notice how, not only are the Japanese auto makers making cars in China, they are already shipping them out...to the USA. And the sticker price will be the exact same as the ones assembled here in America by nonunion, cheaper labor in the south, content with being underlings to Japanese businesses. This represents pure profit for the Japanese. They will probably even take a hit, financially, on their American factories which are pure sop thrown to us to keep us quiescent. Gradually, over time, more and more cars made in China will come here in pursuit of profits. They have to do this. The Americans won't object or the Japanese with threaten us, quietly, behind the scenes, with closing the factories built in GOP strongholds.

I know I am not very popular with American readers concerning this stuff but...well! We are so doomed...it is rather funny in a horrible way.

Meanwhile, go on talking about "overaccumulation"!

 
At 9:42 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Japan, that country that started the front wheel drive phenonmena with Honda civic, that car we originally laugher at, has been shipping us not only cars but better ones, and for more than a couple of decades.
But when China ships us a car, things are different.
When Chrysler announces that it is building a car in China for the export market (that's us), that's different too.
df, I share those same feelings (not about the user account business though --do you somehow have to make your current account inactive?), but very unclear about the transition to that next phase. If the financial imagination fails it could be a militaristic step, but why should I cite the CEO of the Chinese oil company who makes the point that they do not have an imperialistic history? Movie guy does not buy it, and I think 9 out of 10 Americans are with him.
Unfortunately.

 
At 9:54 AM, Anonymous cm said...

Elaine: "it is rather funny in a horrible way"

I believe the term "tragicomedy" has been coined for precisely that.

 
At 12:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ES

Rubbish!

 
At 12:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Elaine

When I see your name I skip to another comment at once.

 
At 8:25 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Well, anony, you might be missing a fair bit then. Restrained, controlled careful and gentle may not be all that it's cracked up to be. Easy to read Elaine as a mad hatter, but that would be a mistake.
I suppose you're hoping she doesn't try to get around you by posting anonymously.
No worries, she's not the kind to pose as somebody else, you?

 
At 1:48 AM, Anonymous cm said...

anonymous: It's your prerogative. This is a voluntary exchange, and everybody makes their own judgements. No need to share this with everybody, but no harm either. It goes both ways.

 
At 12:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

THe reason I complained is even if you agree with thrust of a post the writer, who is obvously intelligent, adopts such an extreme negative stance that it is continually distorted and disturbing for no reason. I did not know how to sign before.

Aruna

 
At 7:41 PM, Blogger calmo said...

Aruna, we hear you.
Elaine is not often soft-spoken or under-stated or even NICE. And when she makes a point that you might have agreed with, she often leaves you no room to comment.
She takes your breath away. You feel like sitting down and maybe taking up a pea-shooter just for some role to play. It's hell posting with Elaine. But it's for our own good, like Milk of Magnesia.
Sorta.
Not really. They must have discovered that stuff was dangerous to your health --even worse than the taste. Elaine, you might discover, is worth the acquired taste.

 
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