Thursday, June 30, 2005

Inflation, shminflation part 3

The release of the May personal income and outlays report allows me to update the consumer inflation numbers I talked about two weeks ago.

After release of the May CPI report, I said
A consumer inflation level of 2.8% is quite low in the grand scheme of things and is now at its lowest point since September 2004. Energy prices have obviously been through the roof, with the compound annual rate for the last three months standing at 28.7%. That being said, the core CPI is a mere 2.2% and has been more or less steady for the last seven months.
Regarding the PCE measure, I noted that overall consumer inflation was running at 2.7% while the core index was just 1.6%. The April figures have been revised downwards to 2.6% and 1.5% respectively, and the preliminary May figures are a mere 2.2% and 1.6%. We're still not at the deflation scare levels of 2003 when core PCE inflation was all the way down to 0.8%, but there is no doubting that these levels are exceedingly tame.

Inflation, shminflation.

533 Comments:

At 2:22 PM, Anonymous dd said...

I guess we're really living in a fairy tale. The Goldilocks economy grows at 3.8, inflation is tame, wages low, weekly unemployment claims drop two weeks running despite lackluster job creation in May, oil prices don't matter, budget deficits don't matter, ditto trade and the Fed can continuously tighten at a "measured pace" without consequence to the bond, stock and mortgage markets. And so, they lived happily everafter...that is the bears did after they kicked Goldie's butt out the door.

 
At 3:40 PM, Blogger la said...

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At 6:41 PM, Blogger calmo said...

OK so where would you trim the tale to make it more palatable (but sadly less entertaining)?
Goldie's butt is going to be kicked by the bears? Not until Goldie stumbles badly which is looking more plausible all the time. A correction in the housing market will be enough, no?

 
At 9:17 PM, Anonymous dd said...

Calmo,
Sorry, I thought I was once again being obvious (damn maybe that's the problem in my almost but never quite published novels!). How about if I say the Greenspanilocks economy and that his butt is gone come January. Talk about a correction; but all hope is not lost cause we'll still do way better than everyone else; but it won't be enough.

 
At 10:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I did miss your Goldi as Greenspan.
And I think we see AG differently then. Smaller and larger: smaller because he is not the FOMC, but merely its chairman. [larger because he is Chairman in the same sort of way that Mao was]; smaller because the interests he represents, Goldi (the wealthy) will appoint a successor who will continue the tradition of the FOMC [larger because his replacement will not have the respect that Greenspan's tenure has bestowed upon him and that new FOMC may be different and worse, not better, as we adjust to the new mouthpiece.]
About that correction: it may not be housing afterall if Bush decides to plow through the SS legislation despite the polls.
I wish I could see this better.
calmo

 
At 2:30 AM, Anonymous DF said...

The real fun will start will declining employment numbers, and this may happen once construction stalls.
Looks like this months employment numbers will be OK. SO we'll need another month to really see the mood turning.
By then the conundrum will really look the way it is : forewarning of an incoming deflation.
One big advise :
ENJOY YOUR VACATION ...
September will be some other kind of fun. A different era. Sour grapes.

 
At 7:36 AM, Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Inflation is so low which is why everyone is freaking out trying to figure out how to pay for gas and energy!

And food.

And medicine. Oh, Canada is now not allowing cheap drugs into America.

And...inflation isn't raging...HAHAHA. Talk about silly stories. Could have fooled me...not.

 
At 8:42 AM, Blogger calmo said...

You would think that the employment numbers in construction would follow a bounce in the housing shelf life but that was not the case in the UK. I found little news even on foreclosures and then only after nearly a year from the housing price crest.
The number attributed to residential construction as a percent of GDP is quite small (~6%) even though there is a much larger chunk of industries that depend on this industry and of course, consumers who can survive only because of refi. Even now more than a year later with volumes still 30% off their highs, the UK housing prices are not showing the much ballyhooed "crash". Not yet and I think that is also a function of the cash-outs that allow consumers the extra float time. With the recent increase in the houses for sale there, despite slightly lower prices if anything, that float time might be just about over.
Why won't we follow this pattern?

I am worried about Bush pushing through privatization of SS, and the immediate ramifications that might have. Transition costs suggest a serious debasement of the currency is coming. The asian cbs have not been pulling their share on supporting the dollar if I have been reading the fx market properly and the Caribbean sources must be looking for relief from that strong dollar.

 
At 10:06 AM, Anonymous df said...

Elaine, once again, the purchasing power is dependant en real wages, not inflation. Real wages are falling, this is why people can't pay their (however slowly) rising bills.
But deflation is in the way. 100 % sure. Precisely because real wages are the perfect foreward indicator of inflation-deflation.
Inflation-deflation is only partly a monetary phenomenon.
The money available explains the total inflation number between consumer goods and producer (assets) goods.
Real wages explains what goes up and down. With real wage down, all increase in the money supply go into asset prices. This was greenspan and others policy. Destroy labour, provide tons of cash, and enjoy your bubble with no inflation to fear. Great.

That's over now.

Because, add a fall in construction to the fall in real wages ... And the end is near.

So far Bush's plan is voluntary. I don't know who'll be that foolish to invest in the stock market at its current valuation.
According to long term series, there is a very high chance that the dow will still be around 10000 in 20 years. Japanese top was 40000 in 1990 and it is still some 12000 I guess in 2005. Not exactly the place where I would want my money to be. And you ?

 
At 10:12 AM, Blogger Gen. Glut said...

Elaine,

As far as I can tell, people are not freaking out over gas prices or food prices or medical costs. There may be some grumbling, but that if far, far, far from changing anybody's actual behavior. AAA is still predicting a record number of cars on the road this weekend . . .

 
At 10:14 AM, Anonymous df said...

The dollar is on the rise, relative to the euro.
Meanwhile, short term rates are up, long term rates are higher than european long term rates. How is that suppose to improve US firms profitability ?
Don't you it increases the risk of a market fall in asset prices in the USA ?

After all, why not buy all those cheap and profitable european companies instead ?

I d like to be proven wrong, but I can't see the dollar rising relative to the euro and the world, without a correlative fall in the US stock market.
In europe, stock market valuation are about 50% of the 2000 peak.
In the USA the dollar fall has made it so, that current prices are at around the 2000 peak, with a fall of 40% of the dollar. If greenspan increases are the cause of the higher dollar, they are bound to stop soon, because the effect on the stock market won't be nice to see.

 
At 9:45 AM, Blogger calmo said...

Roach had a fairly recent piece on the new strength in the dollar, noting not only the bad news this is for US exports and the secret wish by all American interests that it get back to normal as soon as possible, but also the conundrum that it is, in face of the worst deficit/GDP on record.
$245B US investment flows out of the country tell me that increasing prime rates is not the cause for the strong dollar. The story that breaks to the line about foreign savings gluts having no better alternatives to account for this strength does not wash with me.
I read brads for investment flows and understand that something may be occuring with the asian cbs backing away from tbills and preferring other investments. The vacuum this leaves in the tbill market has been filled by the Carib and it's character, esp it's staying power, is uncertain. We are in transition, but I can't see where we're going.

 
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At 1:54 PM, Blogger Coastal-Nick said...

Hey there......I was trying to find info on work from home typing and got directed to your site. It wasn't exaclty what I was looking for, but I hope you dont mind me adding your blog to my favorites.

 

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