Thursday, June 09, 2005

fatbear calls our attention to Friday's release of the April US trade balance data. According to Bloomberg the consensus forecast is a deficit of $58bn, which would come in as the fourth largest monthly deficit ever, $3bn more than March's pullback tally but $2.5bn less than February's record.

As I claimed last month, March's numbers looked awfully funny. If I may quote myself,
When taking in the big picture, however, clearly the significant drop in the overall deficit for March is due almost single-handedly to a drop in consumer goods and auto-related imports from China. There is clearly something fishy going on here.
$58bn sounds about right to me. calmo is putting in for $60bn and fatbear at "slightly over" $60bn. Remember, a deficit of $60.6bn is the all-time record.

The betting window is now open. I'm sure fatbear will sort everything out once 8:30am rolls around.


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