Friday, February 25, 2005

The revised US GDP numbers out today put the exclamation point on 2004. They don't change the massive relative (not to mention absolute) increase in the US current account deficit in 2004:IV, however.

Last month I took a stab at estimating the fourth quarter CA deficit as a percentage of GDP and came up with -6.2%. With these more robust GDP numbers in, the estimate doesn't change at all. While GDP was revised up, the December trade deficit came in larger than I had thought. With a CA deficit of approximately -$185bn for the quarter -- 63% of total exports -- the US continues on a steep steep descent into the netherworld of international financial relations.


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