Monday, December 13, 2004

The consensus forecast for the October 2004 US trade balance is -$53.5bn. That would make October tied for the second largest trade deficit in history. Any number lower than -$48.2bn (i.e. higher in absolute terms) -- pretty much a sure bet -- will make the last five months the five largest monthly trade deficits in history.

The actual data gets released tomorrow. Let us see what the morning light reveals . . .

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