Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Two highlights from today's sneak peak at the IEA's latest Oil Market Report.
The global oil demand forecast has been raised by 240 kb/d for 2004, to 82.4 mb/d . . . World oil supply rose by 640 kb/d to 84.0 mb/d in September.
That means the world is currently consuming about 98% of production. A mighty thin margin indeed, especially considering in last month's Report the IEA estimated 2004:IV global oil demand at 83.8 million barrels per day.
Chinese demand growth shows signs of easing. Preliminary data suggest August growth slowed to 6%, from 12% in July and 25% in the second quarter. This reflected price effects, conservation measures and new non-oil power generation capacity.
So the Chinese are backing off oil. Good news for the global economy. They're replacing it with domestic coal burning ("non-oil power generation capacity"). Bad news for the global environment.


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