Thursday, September 16, 2004

Wow, just as world events are starting again to turn decisively against Bush, the latest polls make him look set for victory in November.

Florida: RCP Average | 8/20 - 9/14
Bush 48.4
Kerry 46.2
Nader 1.8

Bush +2.2

Ohio: RCP Average | 9/4 - 9/13
Bush 51.3
Kerry 43.3
Nader 1.7

Bush +8.0

Pennsylvania: RCP Average | 9/4 - 9/12
Bush 48.3
Kerry 47.5
Nader 2.0

Bush +0.8

And now for the shocker . . .

New Jersey: RCP Average | 9/3-9/14
Kerry 43.7
Bush 44.7
Nader 2.0

Kerry +1.0

Kerry is slightly down in Florida and way down in Ohio. He's running even in Pennsylvania and amazingly also in New Jersey, where the latest SUSA poll actually puts Kerry down 4 points -- in New Jersey?!?!

New Jersey is supposed to be a gimme state for Kerry. Kerry down in New Jersey is like Bush being down in Georgia. While this poll is most likely garbage, at least it shows that the race is incredibly tight in a state about which Kerry shouldn't have to even think once, much less twice.

Before the primaries, the three big swing states were supposed to be MO, OH and FL. Now it looks like Bush has already wrapped up both MO and OH and even put Kerry must-win states like PA, NJ and MN into play, as well as stealing WI from him. Kerry will take back NH but traditionally Democratic WV seems gone for good. Kerry is in striking distance of NV and CO, but it is really looking like FL is the must-win state for him.

Without Florida, Kerry has to hang on to PA and NJ as well as cobble together MN, WI and CO (273 EVs). MN, WI and NV (269 EVs, a tie going to the House where Kerry loses anyway) or MN, CO and NV (268 EVs) just aren't good enough. Since Kerry is really falling behind badly in WI, it's really all about Florida. Without Florida, the combinations necessary for a Kerry win are about as likely as a current account deficit under $600bn this year -- i.e. nada.

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