Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Barry Ritholtz tells us that past trends are predicting future decline.
Looking at the past two decades, whenever the Fed has started tightening AND the yield curve has flattened, it has presaged a downturn in economic activity, as reflected in the ISM.

That is exactly the situation we find ourselves in at present:
The data goes back to 1982, and Barry has a cool graphic to explain it all to you. Check it out.


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