Tuesday, September 21, 2004

According to Real Clear Politics, a web site that tracks all the state-level polls, the current Electoral College vote is:

Bush 284
Kerry 200
Toss-up 54

Of course, you only need 270 to win.

The bottom line from Real Clear Politics: "Kerry simply has to win either FL or OH. If Kerry does not win either FL or OH, he has very little chance of becoming President. . . . If Kerry loses PA or MI he loses."

Kerry is currently down big in OH, down small in FL and tied in PA. He's also losing IA and WI. If Kerry loses IA and WI, he has to win PA, FL *and* one of the following: CO, NV, NM.

The scenarios for a Kerry victory minus FL are slim and getting slimmer. OH is gone; without FL, Kerry would have to run the table on this set of small swing states: WI, IA, MN, NM, NV, CO. Losing even one without FL would finish him off.

Winning FL but losing PA means Kerry could forego WI but must run the table on the rest of the small swing states.

In the real world, FL and PA are the mustest of must-win states, and even then Kerry needs a little help in either the Midwest or the West.


Post a Comment

<< Home