Thursday, July 29, 2004

The unfolding decline in the Australian housing market was in part triggered by the elimination of first-time home buyers from the amazingly overpriced market. If this is a reliable indicator of a housing bubble pop, the UK should start worrying.

As recently as 1999, nearly half (47%) of British mortgages went to first-time buyers. 2000 and 2001 saw only a slight decline into the low 40s. In 2003, a mere 29% of mortgages went to first-time buyers, down to 28% in 2004:II and 27% in June of this year.

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