Tuesday, July 20, 2004

The Bond Market Association says 4.7%. The Blue Chip survey says 4.5%. Now Uncle Alan says, hedging himself all the way down the row,
that annual growth in 2004 would be 4.25 to 4.75 percent, down slightly from its forecast in February that growth could reach 5 percent.
All these glimpses into the crystal ball need 2004:II GDP growth to be pushing 5% or higher in order to make up for 2004:I's underperforming 3.9%. With all the weak data for June combined with big trade deficits for April and May, 5% looks pretty damned optimistic. But we shall see. We shall see.

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