Thursday, June 24, 2004

The party just started and now Paul Erdman at is saying it's almost over.
in 1923 two Americans, W.L Crum and Joseph Kitchin, discovered the shortest cycle of all -- just forty months -- which seemed to recur with almost absolute regularity in both the United States and England, a movement they tracked by observing the rise and fall of interest rates, wholesale prices, the volume of bank clearings and especially inventories. Since World War II we have experienced 10 such recessions. The most current one began just before president George W. Bush took office. The downturn he inherited proved to be of very short duration due to massive fiscal stimulus by his administration and a most accommodating monetary stance by the Fed.

My guess is that this current Kitchin cycle, which usually lasts around 3 years, will end up by being close to typical.

Cracks appear to be rebuilding in the system as evidenced by unexpected slippage in durable goods order reported this week, in addition to a rise in initial claims for jobless benefits.

The party is by no means over, but it could very well be come a year from now.


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