I know this kind of stuff is really DailyKos territory, but so what.
According to Election Projection 2004, Kerry will win the national popular vote 50-48, but is tied with Bush in the electoral college, 269-269. That tie is based on three key states being in the Bush column today but which could go either way come November: Ohio, Florida and Missouri.
Since we last consulted Election Projection 2004, Kerry has lost his small lead in OH (now -0.19%), struck a tie in FL (-0.01%) and caught up dramatically in MO (-2.41%; was -11%). Big states Bush is hoping to take from the Dem column -- Michigan and Pennsylvania especially -- are still comfortably going for Kerry. A handful of upper Midwest states might throw a wrench into Kerry's plans, however. Iowa (+2.48%) and Wisconsin (+3.22%) are far too close for Kerry's comfort seeing as these states are stalwart Democratic voters.
I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we had a repeat of the 2000 race -- except without the Supreme Court stepping in to decide the election. Bush is well positioned to lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College, again.