Wednesday, June 09, 2004

From the headline of the latest Los Angeles Times election poll, things are looking good for John Forbes Kerry. But what the headline giveth, the fine print taketh away.
Kerry Has Solid Lead Among Voters Nationwide

WASHINGTON - Widespread unease over the country's direction and doubts about President Bush's policies on Iraq and the economy helped propel Sen. John F. Kerry to a solid lead among voters nationwide, according to a new Times Poll. . . .

Kerry led Bush by 51% to 44% nationally in a two-way match up, and by 48% to 42% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 4%.
But of course, we all know that a presidential election is not a national event but in fact fifty-one state-based elections (don't forget DC!). When it comes to the state-by-state battle, things suddenly don't look so good for Kerry.

First, the all-important bellweather battleground state of Missouri is running Bush 11% over Kerry. Even if Nader's 5% went to Kerry, that's not even close.

Second, Bush is actually leading Kerry by 2% in the Democrat's gimme state of Wisconsin. Kerry's lead in Michigan, an absolute must-win state for him, is only 2%, and he's down in blue state New Mexico by 1%.

There is good news in big states that went red last year like Ohio (Kerry +3%) and little states like New Hampshire (Kerry +4%) and West Virginia (Kerry +6%). But frighteningly, if Kerry can't win Ohio, it will almost surely all come down to Flordia yet again.

Have fun doing the math yourself.


Post a Comment

<< Home