Friday, June 04, 2004

248,000 and counting.

That's how many jobs the US economy added in May 2004. It sounds like a lot, doesn't it? And compared to the Bush jobs recession before March of this year, it is. But looking at the big picture, we're still a long way from home.

The Bush jobs recession -- which I define as the period from peak number of jobs to the recovery of that point -- is now 39 months long, the longest in post-Great Depression US history. The US is still 1.9 million private sector jobs short of where it was in February 2001, down 1.7%. Most importantly, the pace of the jobs recovery is not that impressive. Since March 2004 the US has averaged a recovery of 0.28% of its jobs per month (measured from most recent jobs peak); over the entire Bush II jobs recovery, just 0.15%. The recovery from the Reagan jobs bust averaged 0.36%/mo.; Nixon/Ford, 0.30%/mo.; and Carter, 0.26%.

At the March-May pace, the US jobs recession will be over in November 2004. How convenient!

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